experimental prob

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Presentation Transcript

PROBABILLITY: 

PROBABILLITY Transition Math

What is Probability?: 

What is Probability? Probability is a number from 0 to 1 that tells you how likely something is to happen. Probability can be either theoretical or experimental.

Probability: 

Probability THEORETICAL Theoretical probability can be found without doing and experiment. EXPERIMENTAL Experimental probability is found by repeating an experiment and observing the outcomes.

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY: 

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY I have a quarter My quarter has a heads side and a tails side Since my quarter has only 2 sides, there are only 2 possible outcomes when I flip it. It will either land on heads, or tails

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY: 

THEORETICAL PROBABILITY When I flip my coin, the probability that my coin will land on heads is 1 in 2 What is the probability that my coin will land on tails??

Theoretical Probability: 

Theoretical Probability Right!!! There is a 1 in 2 probability that my coin will land on tails!!! A probability of 1 in 2 can be written in three ways: As a fraction: ½ As a decimal: .50 As a percent: 50%

Theoretical probability: 

Theoretical probability When I spin this spinner, I have a 1 in 4 chance of landing on the section with the red A in it.

A 1 in 4 chance can be written 3 ways:: 

A 1 in 4 chance can be written 3 ways: As a fraction: ¼ As a decimal: .25 As a percent: 25% Theoretical Probability

Theoretical Probability: 

I am going to take 1 marble from the bag. What is the probability that I will pick out a red marble? Theoretical Probability I have three marbles in a bag. 1 marble is red 1 marble is blue 1 marble is green

Theoretical Probability: 

Theoretical Probability Since there are three marbles and only one is red, I have a 1 in 3 chance of picking out a red marble. I can write this in three ways: As a fraction: 1/3 As a decimal: .33 As a percent: 33%

Experimental Probability: 

Experimental Probability Experimental probability is found by repeating an experiment and observing the outcomes.

Experimental Probability: 

Experimental Probability Remember the bag of marbles? The bag has only 1 red, 1 green, and 1 blue marble in it. There are a total of 3 marbles in the bag. Theoretical Probability says there is a 1 in 3 chance of selecting a red, a green or a blue marble.

Experimental Probability: 

Experimental Probability Draw 1 marble from the bag. It is a red marble. Record the outcome on the tally sheet

Experimental Probability: 

Experimental Probability Put the red marble back in the bag and draw again. This time your drew a green marble. Record this outcome on the tally sheet.

Experimental Probability: 

Experimental Probability Place the green marble back in the bag. Continue drawing marbles and recording outcomes until you have drawn 6 times. (remember to place each marble back in the bag before drawing again.)

Experimental Probability: 

Experimental Probability After 6 draws your chart will look similar to this. Look at the red column. Of our 6 draws, we selected a red marble 2 times.

Experimental Probability: 

Experimental Probability The experimental probability of drawing a red marble was 2 in 6. This can be expressed as a fraction: 2/6 or 1/3 a decimal : .33 or a percentage: 33%

Experimental Probability: 

Experimental Probability Notice the Experimental Probability of drawing a red, blue or green marble.

Comparing Experimental and Theoretical Probability: 

Comparing Experimental and Theoretical Probability Look at the chart at the right. Is the experimental probability always the same as the theoretical probability?

Comparing Experimental and Theoretical Probability: 

Comparing Experimental and Theoretical Probability In this experiment, the experimental and theoretical probabilities of selecting a red marble are equal.

Comparing Experimental and Theoretical Probability: 

Comparing Experimental and Theoretical Probability The experimental probability of selecting a blue marble is less than the theoretical probability. The experimental probability of selecting a green marble is greater than the theoretical probability.

Probability Review: 

Probability Review Theoretical (can be found without doing an experiment) Experimental (can be found by repeating an experiment and recording outcomes.) There are 2 types of probability: Probability is a number from 0 to 1 that tells you how likely something is to happen.

Probability Review: 

Probability Review Probability can be expressed as a fraction, a decimal or a percentage.