Boeckler workshop

Makropolitik Workshop 2006 European Integration in Crisis 27/28 October 2006Stefan Collignonwww.stefancollignon.de: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Makropolitik Workshop 2006 European Integration in Crisis 27/28 October 2006 Stefan Collignon www.stefancollignon.de

Plan: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Plan Some facts The Logic of the SGP The Policy Mix Monetary policy Fiscal policy Labour cost What to do with the Eurozone?

Lisbon Workshop : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Euroland’s weak economic growth

Lisbon Workshop: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Employment Growth Trends USA Euroland

Lisbon Workshop: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Labour Productivity growth

Lisbon Workshop: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Total factor productivity growth

Lisbon Workshop: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Capital deepening

Lisbon Workshop: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Gross Investment Trend Growth

Lisbon Workshop : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop 2. The logic of the SGP Money and economics Price stability Fiscal coordination Optimal policy mix Horizontal vs vertical flexibility The revised SGP

The facts: 

Professor Stefan Collignon The facts

The facts: 

Professor Stefan Collignon The facts

The facts: 

Professor Stefan Collignon The facts

The facts: 

Professor Stefan Collignon The facts

The facts: 

Professor Stefan Collignon The facts

The facts: 

Professor Stefan Collignon The facts

The facts: 

Professor Stefan Collignon The facts

The facts: 

Professor Stefan Collignon The facts

Lisbon Workshop : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Graph: The Policy Mix deflation Inflation Efficiency line Indifference curve Balanced budget Real interest rate A + – A positive supply shock shifts the efficiency line up

Lisbon Workshop : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Monetary policy USA Euroland Pro-cyclical tightening: 8 Counter-cyclical loosening: 9 4 3

Lisbon Workshop : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Fiscal policy USA Euroland Pro-cyclical tightening: 6 Counter-cyclical loosening: 5 8 5

Policies: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Policies

Lisbon Workshop: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Fiscal-Monetary Mix USA Euroland More active macroeconomic policy in USA: Positive supply shift in second half of 1990s Restricted macroeconomic policy in Europe: demand shocks dominate, no supply effects 8 6 6 10 1990-93 1996-2000 Loose/loose Tight/tight Clinton/Greenspan policy mix

Lisbon Workshop : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Unit Labour Cost Inflation

Lisbon Workshop : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Unit Labour Costs

Lisbon Workshop : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Unit Labour Costs

Lisbon Workshop : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Lisbon Workshop Exchange rate policies US-Current Account Deficit The role of Asia Development by undervalued exchange rate Negative role of exchange rate volatility Creating a Eurasian currency bloc

Policies: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Policies

Exchange Rate Policies : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Exchange Rate Policies Development by undervalued exchange rate

Exchange Rate Policies : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Exchange Rate Policies Exchange rate volatility The US/DM example

Conclusion : 

Professor Stefan Collignon Conclusion Europe’s policy tools are insufficient Lack of European government impedes defining and implementing coherent policies Europe needs a proper European government

Policies: 

Professor Stefan Collignon Policies