Year End 2003 Media Briefing with Economic Manager

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Recent Economic Performance and Prospects for 2003-2004 Year-End 2003 Media Briefing Five Storey Building, BSP Complex December 22, 2003 Presented By Romulo L. Neri Secretary of Socio-Economic Planning

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Outline of Presentation Recent Performance Outlook for 2003-2004

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Economic Performance (Growth rates, in percent)

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Asian GDP (Q3 2003, growth rate in %)

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Major Industries (Growth rates, in percent)

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Agriculture, Fishery & Forestry (Growth rates, in percent)

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Industry (Growth rates, in percent)

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Gainers in Manufacturing (Growth rates, in percent)

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Losers in Manufacturing (Growth rates, in percent)

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Services (Growth rates, in percent)

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Demand (Growth rates, in percent)

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Capital Formation (Growth rates, in percent)

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Durable Equipment (Growth rates, in percent)

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II. Outlook for 2003-2004

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2003-2004 Macroeconomic Environment *As of June 12, 2003 DBCC meeting

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Economic fundamentals supportive of stable macroeconomic environment, although risks remain Higher than expected uptick in world oil prices Uncertainty from change in leadership, but this should increasingly clear as platforms are revealed Pick up in world economic growth Normal weather conditions Boost from election spending in first half Macroeconomic Conditions: Assumptions

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Stronger growth will: Boost exports Create higher demand for OFW WEO Forecasts

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Early Indicators for Q4 2003 *As per DOF press releases dated Oct. 20 & Nov. 19

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Early Indicators for Q4 2003

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Early Indicators for Q4 2003

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2003-04 Growth Forecast

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Growth Forecasts: Supply Side

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Growth Forecasts: Supply Side

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Growth Forecasts: Demand Side

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Thank you.