6 M Outwater MTC HSR TRB PlanningApplications Conf

Slide1: 

presented to TRB Planning Applications Conference presented by Elizabeth Sall Maren Outwater Cambridge Systematics, Inc. with Metropolitan Transportation Commission California High-Speed Rail Authority May 9, 2007 Bay Area/California High-Speed Rail Ridership and Revenue Forecasting Study

Model Overview: 

Model Overview Forecast all interregional trips within California Forecast intraregional trips in largest urban areas Induced travel for interregional trips

Integrated Modeling Process: 

Integrated Modeling Process Peak and off-peak time periods Highway, air, conventional and high-speed rail modes

Networks : 

Networks Highway

Data for Model Validation: 

Data for Model Validation Travel surveys American Traveler Survey (ATS) Caltrans Household Travel Survey Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) Volume data Air passengers Rail passengers Highway volumes

Trip Frequency Model Validation: 

Trip Frequency Model Validation Remainder of CA Los Angeles Region San Francisco Region San Diego Region Sacramento Region Short Model Trips by Purpose and Region Long Model Trips by Purpose and Region

Destination Choice Model Validation: 

Destination Choice Model Validation

Mode Choice Model Validation: 

Mode Choice Model Validation

Air Assignment Validation: 

Air Assignment Validation

2030 Travel Markets for Interregional Trips: 

2030 Travel Markets for Interregional Trips 2.5 million daily trips (0.7 million daily trips in 2000 business plan)

Door to Door Travel Times – ExampleSouth San Francisco to Central LA: 

Door to Door Travel Times – Example South San Francisco to Central LA Travel Time Components – Door to Door 100 200 300 400 500 600 Travel Time in Minutes Air HSR Auto Access Origin to Station Terminal Curb to Waiting Area Wait Board Vehicle Line-Haul In-Vehicle Terminal Seat to Curb Egress Station to Destination 0

Level of Service and Mode Choice – ExampleSouth San Francisco to Central LA: 

Level of Service and Mode Choice – Example South San Francisco to Central LA

Annual Interregional Ridership in 2030 In Millions: 

Annual Interregional Ridership in 2030 In Millions Air and auto costs are 50 percent higher than the base

Annual Interregional Ridership in 2030 by Market In Millions: 

Annual Interregional Ridership in 2030 by Market In Millions 0 5 10 15 20 25 Total Boardings by Market LA to Sacramento LA to San Diego LA to SF Sacramento to SF Sacramento to San Diego San Diego to SF LA/SF to SJV Other to SJV Intraregion (1) Pacheco Pass Alternative Base Altamont Pass Alternative Base In Millions

2030 Mode Shares by Travel Market: 

2030 Mode Shares by Travel Market

Interregional HSR Ridership by Purpose: 

Interregional HSR Ridership by Purpose

Sensitivity Tests: 

Sensitivity Tests

Fare Structure: 

Fare Structure Interregional fares set to 50 percent of air fare in SF to LA market Intraregional fares set to 50 percent higher than commuter rail 25 percent increase in fares caused 13 percent drop in ridership 2 percent increase in revenues In 2005 dollars

Annual Interregional Revenues in 2030In Millions: 

Annual Interregional Revenues in 2030 In Millions Air and auto costs are 50 percent higher than the base In 2005 dollars

Annual Intraregional Ridership and Revenue in 2030: 

Annual Intraregional Ridership and Revenue in 2030 A 50 percent increase in air and auto costs would increase intraregional ridership and revenues by 6 percent, or 21.7 million annual HSR riders and $197 million in revenues In 2005 dollars

Sources of HSR Ridership: 

Sources of HSR Ridership Interregional trips Air 16% Rail 3% Auto 79% Induced 2%

Total Statewide HSR Ridership and Revenue: 

Total Statewide HSR Ridership and Revenue

Reports Available on the CHSRA Web Site: 

Reports Available on the CHSRA Web Site Interregional Model System Development Level-of-Service Assumptions and Forecast Alternatives Findings from the Second Peer Review Panel Meeting and Findings from the First Peer Review Panel Meeting Survey Documentation Socioeconomic Data, Transportation Supply, and Base Year Travel Patterns Data

Next Steps: 

Next Steps Generate data for environmental studies Conduct additional alternative tests Finalize intraregional models in Southern California