A new Telecom World unfolding - The IPv6 factor Yves Poppe Director – IP Strategy First Thailand IPv6 Summit May 2-4, 2006 - Bangkok: A new Telecom World unfolding - The IPv6 factor Yves Poppe Director – IP Strategy First Thailand IPv6 Summit May 2-4, 2006 - Bangkok
Slide2: Agenda Why the acceleration?
Some perceived drivers
VSNL - Teleglobe and IPv6 www.vsnlinternational.com
A View from the Top: A View from the Top “ With the internet and the proliferation of semiconductors, you’ll end up with trillions of things connected – not just individuals but cars, roads, homes, appliances, health-care data, and pacemakers. All of these things are available today that weren’t available in the past. In a way, everybody needs a challenge or the threat to get them going. The threat is that all these competitors are coming on-line that have global capabilities. They’re all enabled by these technologies… »
Samuel J. Palmisano, Chairman IBM, interviewed by Business Week - April 3th 2006 North-American issue, pp 52-53
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Why the Acceleration?: Why the Acceleration? A telecom Industry desperate for stability and renewed revenue growth:
Coming out of a major recession; relentless technological change; changing regulatory environments; consolidation; globalization.
Consensus : the next multibillion revenue opportunities imply IP based network convergence, multi-functional end-devices, always on, always p2p reachable, mobile and endowed with end to end security.
Intense pressure on existing carrier business models with the advent of VoIP and new broadband wireless technologies
Visions of ubiquitous communications between billions of devices ranging from home networks to global sensor and RFID networks. www.vsnlinternational.com
Convergence and disintermediation: Convergence and disintermediation Multiplicity of convergences
Network: IP convergence
Access: Fixed and wireless convergence
End device: multimedia convergence
Service provision: convergence (triple, quad play)
Disintermediation
Applications, from voice to MP3 download to home security to TV distribution, independent of telecomm infrastructure provider
Results in current debate on “network neutrality” www.vsnlinternational.com
Blurring distribution models: Blurring distribution models The old order: discrete and distinct
Telecom: voice, fixed and mobile, data, internet
Broadcasters : radio, TV
Music industry
Movie industry
Print and publishing
Advertising
Gaming, gambling
Home entertainment
Production control, goods tracking
Services: banking, travel, auctions, sales of goods
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Some pitfalls of IP convergence: Some pitfalls of IP convergence The internet currently suffers from:
Uneven distribution & looming shortage of IP addresses
Inadequacy for mobile networking
Unability for plug an play reconfiguration
Elusive quality: QoS not on par with TDM & ATM
Major network and user security issues:
Bad guy tricks: phishing, pharming, bots, typosquatting…
Internet fraud complaints in the US: from 48,252 in 2002 to 207,449 in 2004(*)
After Spam : Spim (Instant messaging Spam) and Spit (Internet Telephony spam)
(*): Internet Crime Complaint Center, as reported by BW May 30 2005 issue
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IP convergence: the IPv6 factor: IP convergence: the IPv6 factor Solves address shortage
Restores p2p
Mobility
Better spectrum utilization
Better battery life!
Security
Ipsec mandatory
Multicast
Better QoS (flow labels)
www.vsnlinternational.com Neighbour discovery
Ad-Hoc networking
Home networks
Plug and play
Auto configuration
Permanent addresses
Identity (CLID)
Traceability (RFID)
Sensors and monitoring ADSL, cable, 3G, Wi-Fi, Wi-Max provide the always-on
IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence : IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence To make a commercial reality of the IP convergence vision is impossible without moving to a new IP version
The current one (IPv4) deployed on 01 /01/1983 is totally inadequate to meet current network needs.
IPv6 is the only way out of current IP address shortage for major developing economies such as China and India.
Essential for mobility, improved security and QoS
Essential for plug and play home networking, mobile ad-hoc networks (MANET’s) and networks in motion (NEMO’s)
Critical component for session and event based billing in the 3G and B3G (Beyond 3G) world based on IMS and SIP.
One of the building stones toward ITU-T defined NGN
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Some New Telecom World drivers: Some New Telecom World drivers Application domains:
Mobile IP
Voice, radio, TV over IP
Grid
Massive multiplayer games
RFID, control and sensor networks
Microsoft
Critical mass of:
digital communicating end-user devices
high speed always on access
National policies:
Research and Education networks
National Defense
National/regional policies and economic weight www.vsnlinternational.com Disruptive on most existing carrier business models
17 billion Networkable Devices!: 17 billion Networkable Devices! Sun Microsystems estimates that including sensor and RFID networks the world could have a trillion communicating devices in a decade!
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Mobile communications: What a market!: Mobile communications: What a market! As reported by 3G Americas www.3gamericas.org 2 billion devices was reached sometime mid 2005! www.vsnlinternational.com
IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence : IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence After the European bidding excesses and initial equipment delays 3G finally take off
Number of 3G/UMTS users reached 35 million by mid 2005; 50 million units were forecasted by end 2005 !
Saturation in mobile voice stimulates interest in « rich media » high speed applications, seamless wireless mobility, location based services information. The MNO dilemma is the risk of becoming a bit pipe implied by the move to data.
IMS (Internet Multimedia subsystem) is key to the billing of these new services services and IPv6 essential for a scaleable IMS approach.
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Mobile: Japan shows the way: Mobile: Japan shows the way Graph by CIAJ (Communication & Information Association of Japan) www.vsnlinternational.com
IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence : IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence Disruptive effect of the Skype phenomenon : 150 million downloads, 8 billion plus minutes, 1.5 million users on-line after two years.
In North-America: 400+ providers
Japan’s Yahoo BB is the biggest VoIP provider
Market will really explode with dual wi-fi/cellphone end-devices
What role for Google, Microsoft, E-Bay, Apple iPhone?
Enterprise VoIP:
Q1 05 PBX shipments: 15% pure IP (rev. +36%) , 57% hybrid, 28% TDM ; 2008 forecast: 28% IP, 67% hybrid, 8% TDM (Infonetics)
IP centrex market starts to take off: perfect match for IPv6
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Digital radio, mobile TV and IPTV: Digital radio, mobile TV and IPTV Other neologisms : podcast(ing) and mobisodes.
Radio delivered by web, satellite and cellphones.
HD-Radio : CD quality sound; digital plus data alongside existing AM or FM channels.
Barriers to entry to a 21 billion $ industry (in the US) go down; XM, Sirius, Yahoo, MSN new names in broadcasting.
Mobile TV: Qualcomm MediaFlo vs. Modeo Consortium
Mobile broadcast : Potentially 270 million subs worldwide by 2009 (Visiongain)
Forecasts of 200 million digital TV’s worldwide by 2007 and 20 million IPTV subscribers by 2008 (IPTV News) www.vsnlinternational.com
Grids: Grids Going mainstream
IBM : 11 datacenters around the world as computing grid
Sun Microsystems; grid on demand service
Globus Consortium with IBM, Sun, Intel etc promote de facto standard
numerous trials in the R&E world www.vsnlinternational.com
Multiplayer games : Multiplayer games On-line gaming
More than 5 million subscribers for most popular titles
Average 20 hours/week on-line! Monthly fee 10 to 15US$
Sales of virtual goods reached US$200 million!
Japan on-line gaming to reach 93.8 billion yen end 2005!
Multiplayer cellphone gaming takes of exponentially
On-line gambling
Virtual poker tables, tournaments etc.
Partygaming IPO : US$ 9 billion valuation June 2005 www.vsnlinternational.com
RFID’s : RFID’s January 2005: The bandwagon started rolling
Wal-Mart Stores and DoD mandatory RFID support programs started.
Generalized RFID implies terabytes of traffic daily.
RFID for authentication and for traceability: drugs, passports, banknotes, secure papers, concert entry ticket, casino chips, luggage tags ….
3.1 billion tags for pallets&cases in 2006; by 2008 a US$7.26B market with 15.3 billion tags for pallets &cases and 6.8 for non retail item level (luggage etc) 48% Asia, 32 % North America by 2010 (source: IDTechEx analysis).
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Sensor networks : Sensor networks Self organizing sensor networks
Darpa sensit, Smart Dust, motes and follow-up projects
Pervasive computing, context-aware computing etc.
Habitat, water&pollution levels, structural integrity, biomedical
Intel’s vision
Intel Deep Networking projects: “Locally networking billions of embedded nodes, driving computing deeper into the infrastructure that surrounds us.”
Intel Mote: “Motes are tiny, self-contained, battery-powered computers with radio links, which enable them to communicate and exchange data with one another, and to self-organize into ad hoc networks. Motes form the building blocks of wireless sensor networks” www.vsnlinternational.com
Microsoft: Microsoft Motivation: expand application domains and revenue sources
Multiplayer games (Xbox on-line)
Peer 2 peer ( end of NAT issues)
Mobility (session continuity , mobile VPN, VoIP)
End to end security: temporary addresses and Ipsec
Secure neighbor discovery
Plug and play (instant network)
Microsoft and IPv6 support
Windows XP SP1, PocketPC, CE.NET have an IPv6 stack
Messenger, Windows Media Player, Direct Play, Threedegrees
Windows Vista will have IPv6 as default protocol. Revised release date Q1 2007 www.vsnlinternational.com
The battle for the communicating living-room: The battle for the communicating living-room Consumer Electronic Show Vegas January 2004 and January 2005
First serious salvos in a titanic battle between the computer industry (Intel, Microsoft) and the electronics industry (Sony, Philips, Toshiba, Panasonic..)
The essence of the battle is a kind of a home « mediacenter » with all devices connected in a plug and play mode, preferably wireless.
Consumer Electronic Show january 2006
CEA press-release jan 8th:
“Convergence was a big trend on the show floor in 2006 as traditional product categories merged together to create unique, multi-functional digital devices.”
Huge stakes: $135 billion consumer electronics market in the US alone for 2006 (Consumer Electronics Association) www.vsnlinternational.com
Prevalence of fast digital access : Prevalence of fast digital access 150.6 million subscribers end 2004
up 26.5 million lines in 6 months (source: Point Topic)
200+ million were estimated end 2005
DSL dominates except in North America
Growth continues unabated:
FT: end Q2 2005: 6.4’ subscribers +80% in 1 year
Telefonica: end Q2 2005: 4’ subs +56% in 1 year
UK: high speed internet connections overtake dial-up (June 05)
It took mobile phones 5.5 years to go from 10 to 100 million subscribers worldwide; Broadband achieved this in 3.5 years.
It took mobile 5.5 years to grow from 10 to 100m worldwide; Broadband achieved same growth in 3.5 years www.vsnlinternational.com
BB: Again, Japan shows the way: BB: Again, Japan shows the way www.vsnlinternational.com
Powerline Communication : Powerline Communication Utilities are showing a growing interest
Associations in North-America, Europe and Asia
Standardization process accelerates
Products are coming on the market after around 100 trials in 40 countries
Opens the way to networking for the myriad home appliances all the way to the individual lightbulbs www.vsnlinternational.com
Software Defined Radio : Software Defined Radio SDR promises seamless interoperability across virtually any wireless standard
Makes software control of operating frequencies and output power possible..
Allows for multimode, multiband, multifunctional devices to be adapted, updated or enhanced by software
Mandated by the US DoD under JTRS (Joint Tactical Radio System) program
European Union formed a very active SDR group: E2R (End 2 End Reconfigurability)
Seen as essential for B3G (Beyond 3G)
Standard disputes underway www.vsnlinternational.com
Wi-Fi, Wi-Max, ZigBee, Mobile-Fi, Ultrawideband….: Wi-Fi, Wi-Max, ZigBee, Mobile-Fi, Ultrawideband…. Disruptive even if a fraction of these market projections are achieved
Constant re-evaluation of current business models both for access and service revenues is essential. www.vsnlinternational.com Business Week, April 26th 2004
Wi-Fi and Wi-Max: Wi-Fi and Wi-Max Wi-FI
120 million Wi-Fi chipsets shipped in 2005
100,000 public hotspots reached, 37K in the USA (Jiwire study, reported in Computerworld January 23, 2006)
Wi-Max
Potentially disruptive; rival for fixed BB and 3G?
Intel Wi-Max ready chipset started shipping
“We want to enable the next billion broadband users” (Ron Peck, Intel director marketing WiMax, quoted in C|net apr 18th)
$250+ per access down to $50 by 2008 – price level needed for generalized inclusion in laptops, cellphones etc.
Deployments announced and starting:
Clearwire, Speakeasy, AT&T, Qwest, Korea’s Wibro
Jan 2006: first WiMax Forum certified products
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R&E networking: R&E networking R&E networks broke the IPv6 chicken and egg dilemma
All major R&E networks are dual stack
Next frontier: ultra high bandwidth communication with projects such as GLIF
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National Defense: National Defense US DoD decision to mandate IPv6 support was major catalyst in the US
Resulted in Moonv6 test network
Australian, Canadian, German,Japanese, UK and other defense ministries plan for IPv6
NATO Interoperable Networks for Secure Communication (INSC) project has IPv6 focus
Defense mobile networking needs: adhoc networks (MANET), networks in motion (NEMO) and end system mobility are just not achievable without IPv6 www.vsnlinternational.com
IPv6 deployment: The China factor : IPv6 deployment: The China factor With the support from the Chinese government, China’s five major Carriers started to build the CNGI: China Next Generation Internet
Objective stated in 2004: " It will become one of the largest IPv6 networks in the world by the year of 2005, speeding up the IPv6 R&D in China and providing tremendous business opportunities for industry global wide. "
CERnet2, China’s new R&E network is IPv6 only and connect 20 cities at speeds of 2.5 and 10 gigabit per second. Became operational in Dec-04.
Chinese officials restated that they want the Chinese internet to be completely IPv6 in time for the 2008 Olympics
China 2005 IPv6 Summit Theme was: “IPv6 & CNGI---Innovation in Action, Connecting Everything” China 2006 IPv6 Summit Theme is: “IPv6: The New Internet-The Future is Here”
2008 will be showcase for the IP converged Olympics with full deployment completed in time for the Shanghai 2010 Worldfair www.vsnlinternational.com
China’s Next Gen Internet : China’s Next Gen Internet CNGI fund of 1.4 billion Yuan (US$169 million) provided by the NDRC (National Development Reform Commission) to support six next generation networks www.vsnlinternational.com
Korea’s u-IT839: Korea’s u-IT839 U-IT839
Announced feb 8th 2006
Successor to IT839
Emphasis on ubiquity and on convergence:
Mobile communications and telematics
RFID and USN (ubiquitous sensor network)
T-DMB(Digital Multimedia broadcasting) and DTV
BCN (Broadband Converged Network) includes IPv6
Some of the 2006 objectives;
Commercialization of HSDPA and Wibro
Nation wide DMB and DTV services
BB internet and WLAN controlled household robot
Motivation: grow IT from 13.3% of GDP in 2006 to 21.8% in 2010
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Malaysia’s MyICMS 886 blueprint : Malaysia’s MyICMS 886 blueprint Launched December 19, 2005
8 Services
Broadband, 3G, Mobile TV, digital multimedia broadcasting, digital home, RFID, VoIP, universal service provisioning
8 Infrastructures
Three hard: Multi service convergence network, 3G telegram network, satellite
5 soft: IPv6, Information and network security, PC and internet adoption, computer development and product design and manufacturing
6 Growth areas
Content development, ICT education, set talk boxes, digital radio receivers, VoIP phones and overseas investment consultancy
Motivation: grow C&M from 9.7% of GDP www.vsnlinternational.com
India’s 10 point agenda: India’s 10 point agenda Declared by the Honourable Minister Maran
Convergence of technologies
E-Governance
Broadband connectivity
Next Mobile Wireless
National Internet exchange & Indian Domain Name
IPv6
Security & digital signature
Media Lab Asia: seamless communication to rural areas
Language computing: given India’s multilingual nature
Outsourcing skilled manpower and R&D thrust
Will help grow IT share from current 4.8% of GDP www.vsnlinternational.com
A high stakes game : Internet Governance! : A high stakes game : Internet Governance! The internet juggernaut of the last decade took governments, regulators and carriers by surprise
The looming IP convergence and an era of ubiquitous communications raises growing concerns about national interests, security, privacy and control
IPv6 is a once in a generation opportunity to influence governance and control of telecommunications
For the first time since IPv4 was introduced in jan1983, the internet is moving to a new protocol version and address scheme
At stake: a more regulated structured growth versus a liberal highly creative, competitive more chaotic growth.
July 14th 2005: impasse between the U.N. and the USA. The U.N. panel presents 4 options including status-quo.
November 2005 WSIS conference in Tunis: compromise reached www.vsnlinternational.com
VSNL & IPv6: VSNL & IPv6 www.vsnlinternational.com Home Carrieror ISP Global Carrieror ISP
Foreign Carrieror ISP
IP Convergence requires seamless connectivity
Slide38: Wholesale Data | Global Footprint www.vsnlinternational.com
Slide39: Wholesale Data | IP Backbone www.vsnlinternational.com
Slide40: Medak Rajamundry Samathanagar Tirupathy Vijaywadai Vishakapatnam Warangal Sambhalpur VSNL India:
114 POP’s IPv6 ready
Some concluding thoughts : Some concluding thoughts What will the new telecom world we are creating bring?
Homes on-line: triple or quad play; home gateways for work, entertainment, security and monitoring.
Goods on-line: tagging of practically everything
Revenues on-line: whole industries attracted by the vortex
Nations on-line: prerequisite to compete and generate wealth in a increasingly global economy.
Humans on-line: we will be networks in motion moving around carrying some terabytes of information and communicating with the rest of the world at gigabit speeds
Our brains on-line?
IPv6 will be a small but essential cog in this big wheel. www.vsnlinternational.com
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