Ray Watts

The Road to Knowledge…about Roads: 

The Road to Knowledge… about Roads Raymond D. Watts U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins, Colorado

Data sources: 

Data sources Watch for them… There are a lot!

Roads and Cities: 

Roads and Cities The “inseparables”: Cities and people People and cars Cars and roads Do roads cause cities? (to grow?) Do cities cause roads?

Roads and Ecosystems: 

Roads and Ecosystems Resource extraction & transportation Farm to market Mining and pumping Logging Water Recreation Official roads Unofficial roads (ATV, snowmobile)

Coupling: 

Coupling Trend

Environmental Effects: 

Environmental Effects Air quality Watershed condition Impermeable surfaces and stream “flashiness” Sand, salt, erosion and water quality Habitat fragmentation and biodiversity Transport of invasive species

Roads and Cities: 

Roads and Cities San Francisco Bay Area California Central Valley Chesapeake Bay Albuquerque, NM

Map-calibrated models of urban growth: 

Map-calibrated models of urban growth Model Developed by Keith Clark, UCSB, William Acevedo, USGS, and others Based on fire-propagation model Implemented as spatial cellular automatons Controlling factors Exclusion zones: water, steep slopes, public lands Proximity to urbanized areas Road network (road proximity increases development probability)

Urban growth: San Francisco Bay Area: 

Urban growth: San Francisco Bay Area Data source: USGS map archives; USGS Urban Dynamics Program

Urban Growth: Chesapeake Bay: 

Urban Growth: Chesapeake Bay Data source: USGS map archives; USGS Urban Dynamics Program

Urban Growth: California Central Valley: 

Urban Growth: California Central Valley Data source: USGS map archives; USGS Urban Dynamics Program

Urban growth: Albuquerque: 

Urban growth: Albuquerque Data source: USGS map archives, USGS Urban Dynamics Program

Shaping growth: 

Shaping growth We have seen how roads are influential …is recreation influential?

Recent growth in Colorado: 

Recent growth in Colorado Colorado Front Range Development along I-25 Development along I-70 Summit County Breckenridge Keystone Copper Mountain Eagle County Vail Beaver Creek

Change in nighttime lights, 1992-2000: 

Change in nighttime lights, 1992-2000 Data source: C.Elvidge, NOAA/NGDC

Ecological multipliers: 

Ecological multipliers Population X Per-capita vehicles X Trafficability X Recreational pursuits = Vehicular presence & effects

Colorado population growth: 

Colorado population growth Data source: US Census, CO State Demographer

Slide18: 

Data source: EPA

Slide19: 

Data source: EPA

Slide20: 

Data sources: U.S. Census, EPA

Trends: 

Trends Social: 15% of Colorado vehicles are SUVs All-terrain vehicles (ATVs) Snowmobiles What are the trends in “secondary vehicles”? Lead to a trend in “trafficability”

Ex-urban roads: 

Ex-urban roads Data source: Southern Rockies Ecosystem Project, from USGS digital line graphs

Where can you go to get away from roads?: 

Where can you go to get away from roads? Data source: Southern Rockies Ecosystem Project, from USGS digital line graphs

Do we know all the roads?: 

Do we know all the roads? Primitive roads (ATV, jeep, etc.) are almost certainly under-represented

Testing our road knowledge: 

Testing our road knowledge Digital orthorectified photos were used to photo-interpret roads in Teton County (Jackson Hole), Wyoming Administrative road maps appear (data not yet field checked) to under-represent roads by as much as 30%

A USGS “DOQ”: 

A USGS “DOQ” Data source: USGS, Terraserver, U.Wyoming

Administrative versus photo-interpreted roads, NE Teton County: 

Administrative versus photo-interpreted roads, NE Teton County Data sources: USGS DOQ, FS CFF

Grizzly-habitat exclusion (500m): 

Grizzly-habitat exclusion (500m) Information source: Interagency Grizzly Bear Study Team

Hypothesis: 

Hypothesis HO: the rate of road development on public lands is not correlated with human population (+income, vehicle ownership, etc.) Ha: the rate of road development is correlated

Conclusions: 

Conclusions Roads present serious policy questions relating to the environment Roads occur in response to a large number of natural and human variables Many disparate data sources are required Without data centers and without web access, this sort of research would be impossible Keep up the good work!

Thank you: 

Thank you

Slide32: 

Data source: EPA

An example:Fort Collins population growth: 

An example: Fort Collins population growth Data source: U.S. Census, CO State Demographer

Geometric amplification of travel: 

Geometric amplification of travel 1.35 (pop. factor) x 1.16 (urban size factor) = 1.57 1990 2000

What does this have to do with roads?: 

What does this have to do with roads? If you are a commuter… Unless you like spending time in traffic, then a compact urban form is of value If you are in the auto or oil business… Then population growth and sprawl are enriching things As with most policy questions, it’s a matter of values.

Slide36: 

Expanding our view… Colorado Front Range Nighttime lights 1992-93 Data source: C.Elvidge, NOAA/NGDC

Slide37: 

Expanding our cities… Colorado Front Range Nighttime lights 2000 Data source: C.Elvidge, NOAA/NGDC