Financial Reform in China: what next?: Financial Reform in China: what next? Howard Davies Director - London School of Economics Hong Kong Theatre LSE 17 October, 2006


Global Financial Stock 2004 (%)China is becoming a significant part of the global system: Global Financial Stock 2004 (%) China is becoming a significant part of the global system Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2006


Global Financial Stock Growth Rates (%) 1993-2004: Global Financial Stock Growth Rates (%) 1993-2004 Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2006


Financial Depth – Financial Stock as % of GDP 2004China’s financial system is already well-developed: Financial Depth – Financial Stock as % of GDP 2004 China’s financial system is already well-developed Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2006 (%)


Bank Deposits as % of Financial StockBut it is very heavily dependent on banks: Bank Deposits as % of Financial Stock But it is very heavily dependent on banks Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2006


Chinese Share of Global Financial Stock (%) 2004And the capital markets are relatively small: Chinese Share of Global Financial Stock (%) 2004 And the capital markets are relatively small Source: McKinsey Global Institute, 2006


China’s Banking Industry Structure: China’s Banking Industry Structure State Council Central Bank: PBOC China Banking Regulatory Commission: CBRC Commercial Banks State commercial Banks National commercial banks Regional commercial banks City commercial banks Joint-venture banks Foreign bank branches Policy Banks China Development Bank Export/Import Bank Agricultural Development Bank Joint Stock Banks Bank of Communications CITIC Industrial Bank China Everbright Bank Huaxia Bank etc State Owned Banks Industrial & Commercial BoC (ICBC) Bank of China (BOC) China Construction Bank (CCB) Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) Other Commercial Banks 112 city commercial banks 1,049 urban credit cooperatives 40,000 rural credit cooperatives Foreign Banks 191 foreign operational entities Other Institutions 136 trust and investment companies 71 financial companies 12 leasing companies


A Market dominated by the “Big Four”: A Market dominated by the “Big Four” Consumer Deposits Consumer Loans Corporate Deposits Corporate Deposits Corporate Loans


The ‘Big Four’ Strategy: The ‘Big Four’ Strategy Strengthen balance sheets Strategic shareholders Strengthen management capacity JV partners IPOs in Hong Kong and Shanghai (? and later London) to aid corporate governance reform


The Non-Performing Loan Problem: The Non-Performing Loan Problem A residue of the casualties of economic reform The Government’s response a combination of: worst loans moved to asset management companies: ‘bad banks’ capital injections enhancement of recovery rates restrictions on ‘political’ lending


China Banking Landscape Statistics: China Banking Landscape Statistics  


Chinese Bank IPOs: Chinese Bank IPOs


WTO Framework: WTO Framework Steps Towards WTO Reform WTO Accession (Dec 2001) Business Scope Cities to be opened Opening of foreign currency accounts for local enterprises and individuals RMB Business open to all enterprises in China Dec 2002 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec 06 RMB Business open to all enterprises and individuals in China Shenzhen, Shanghai, Dalian, Tianjin Guangshou, Qingdao, Nanjing, Wuhan Jinan Fuzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing Kunming, Zhuhai, Beijing, Xiamen Shantou, Ningbo, Shenyang, Xian No more geographic restriction


WTO Implications for Foreign Banks: WTO Implications for Foreign Banks National treatment Allowed to conduct RMB business (but with some restrictions) Encouragement to establish in North East and West Common regulatory standards


Key Challenges for Chinese Banking System: Key Challenges for Chinese Banking System Fundamental banking industry reform is far from complete - Ensure large state-owned banks that have been cleaned up and recapitalised do not repeat past mistakes - Upgrade management expertise - Improve Risk management and internal control - Adopt risk-based pricing - Standardise processes and centralise IT - Implement proper incentive system - Further lower high NPL ratios and address thin capitalization of other underperforming banks - Eliminate influence by central and local governments - Further improve regulatory/legal framework


Moody’s Ratings of China’s Big Four Banks: Moody’s Ratings of China’s Big Four Banks Bank Deposit Senior Long- Financial Long-term Short-term Term Debt Strength Bank 1997 2006 1997 2006 1997 2006 1997 2006 Agricultural Bank of China Baa2 A2 P3 P1 Baa2 NA E E Bank of China Baa2 A2 P3 P1 Baa2 A2 E+ D- China Construction Bank Baa2 A2 P3 P1 Baa2 NA E D Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Baa2 A2 P3 P1 Baa2 NA E E+


Key Challenges for Chinese Financial System: Key Challenges for Chinese Financial System Banks still serve as the primary channel for corporate financing with very limited ability to lay off risks outside the banking system - Domestic stock market was closed for new issuance for some time. - Domestic bond market remains significantly underdeveloped. Emerging universal banking trend poses increasing complexity for regulation - Banks are now allowed to set up asset management companies on a pilot basis - Increasing desire by banks and insurers to get into each other’s business (currently not allowed)


Key Challenges for Chinese Financial System: Key Challenges for Chinese Financial System But the biggest issues are probably cultural - Credit focus, not formula lending allocations - Creative tensions within banks, and between banks and regulators - Institutional loyalties


Stock exchange indices: Shanghai v India: Stock exchange indices: Shanghai v India Source: Yahoo! Finance, 2006


Capital Market Reforms : Capital Market Reforms a) Equity market selling Government shareholdings - investor compensation scheme overseas investment regulatory enforcement/closure of securities firms


Capital Market Reforms : Capital Market Reforms b) Bond markets pricing benchmarks - rating agencies derivatives secondary/repo markets


Capital Market Reforms : Capital Market Reforms c) Corporate Governance CSRC Code of Practice - role of independent Directors distributed ownership


Regulatory Reform : Regulatory Reform - 3 commissions: CBRC, CSRC, CIRC International Advisory Councils - Training Culture of challenge Overarching body to resolve inconsistencies and promote co-operation


Implications for the Global Financial System: Implications for the Global Financial System Huge new competitors with regional/global ambitions Adequately capitalised to operate overseas (probably) Supported by knowledge transfer from strategic shareholders, but Not as margin sensitive as other banks with more demanding shareholders New openings in China for foreign institutions with targeted competitive offerings


Relative size of Chinese and other Asian banks ( $bn): Relative size of Chinese and other Asian banks ( $bn)


Financial Reform in China: what next?: Financial Reform in China: what next? Howard Davies Director - London School of Economics Hong Kong Theatre LSE 17 October, 2006