Predicting Public Response to a Terrorist Strike (Abridged-see Appendix): Predicting Public Response to a Terrorist Strike (Abridged-see Appendix) William J. Burns CSUSM bburns@csusm.edu With: Paul Slovic Decision Research pslovic@darkwing.uoregon.edu


Disasters: Modeling the Diffusion of Fear: Disasters: Modeling the Diffusion of Fear


Hypothetical Damage Scenarios: Factors Investigated: Hypothetical Damage Scenarios: Factors Investigated Domain: Non-Terrorism vs. Terrorism Mechanism: Explosions vs. Infectious Disease Motive: Terrorism: Demand Release of Prisoners vs. Solely to Spread Fear Non-Terrorism: Non-Intentional vs. Intentional Victim: Govt. Officials vs. Tourists Non-Negligence/Suicide vs. Negligence/Suicide Fatalities: 0 - 15 - 495 Public Response Measures: Risk, Trust, Word-of-Mouth, Media Use, Avoiding Public Paces, Contacting Emergency Services


Scenario Design: First Six Events (Non-Suicide/Negligence-495 Casualties): Scenario Design: First Six Events (Non-Suicide/Negligence-495 Casualties)


Risk Perception: Bomb Blast (terrorist) vs. Propane Tank Explosion (non-terrorist) : Risk Perception: Bomb Blast (terrorist) vs. Propane Tank Explosion (non-terrorist)


Risk Perception: Anthrax Release (terrorist) vs. Infectious Disease (non-terrorist). : Risk Perception: Anthrax Release (terrorist) vs. Infectious Disease (non-terrorist).


Risk Perception: Infectious Disease Release (non-terrorist) vs. Propane Tank Explosion (non-terrorist) : Risk Perception: Infectious Disease Release (non-terrorist) vs. Propane Tank Explosion (non-terrorist)


Risk Perception: Anthrax Release (terrorist) a vs. Bomb Blast (terrorist): Risk Perception: Anthrax Release (terrorist) a vs. Bomb Blast (terrorist)


Risk Perception: Examples Threat Scenarios (Range 1-9): Risk Perception: Examples Threat Scenarios (Range 1-9)


Predicting Risk Perception: Regression Modeling: Predicting Risk Perception: Regression Modeling Risk Perception = 2.76 +1.98(Domain) + 1.17(Mechanism) + .51(Motive) + .24(Victim) + .74(Suicide/Negligence) + .02(Scale) - .80(Domain x Mechanism) - .39(Domain x Motive) R2 = .87 Mechanism and Motive Moderate the Effect of Terrorism


Risk Perception: Mechanism Moderating the Effect of Terrorism: Risk Perception: Mechanism Moderating the Effect of Terrorism


Risk Perception: Mechanism Moderating the Effect of Terrorism: Risk Perception: Mechanism Moderating the Effect of Terrorism


Trust in First Responders: Regression Modeling: Trust in First Responders: Regression Modeling Trust in First Responders = 7.05 -.38(Domain) – 1.08(Mechanism) + .03(Motive) - .07(Victim) -.06(Suicide/Negligence) - .40(Scale) + .36(Domain x Mechanism) - .50(Domain x Scale) R2 = .80 Mechanism and Scale Moderate the Effect of Terrorism


Trust in First Responders: Mechanism Moderating the Effect of Terrorism: Trust in First Responders: Mechanism Moderating the Effect of Terrorism


Trust in First Responders: Mechanism Moderating the Effect of Terrorism: Trust in First Responders: Mechanism Moderating the Effect of Terrorism


Modeling Parameters: Modeling Parameters Metropolitan Area One Million Adults / Twenty Hospitals Time Frame: Sixty Days Hazard: Accident (Propane Tank Explosion) Terrorist Event: (Bomb Blast vs. Anthrax)


System Dynamics Model of a Terrorist Strike (Abridged): System Dynamics Model of a Terrorist Strike (Abridged)


Diffusion of Concern and Fear: Diffusion of Concern and Fear


Diffusion of Fear: Amplifying Effect of Risk Signal: Diffusion of Fear: Amplifying Effect of Risk Signal


Diffusion of Fear vs. Investigation Duration: Diffusion of Fear vs. Investigation Duration


Diffusion of Fear: Effect of Event Type and Duration: Diffusion of Fear: Effect of Event Type and Duration


Community Response to Terrorism: Policy Implications : Community Response to Terrorism: Policy Implications Need Careful, Coordinated, Rapid Response. Three Important Questions: How Do Perceptions of Risk and Public Reaction Amplify in Response to a Terrorist Event-”Self-Reinforcing Feedback Loops”? What Factors Facilitate the Public Returning to Normalcy after a Terrorist Strike-”Self-Correcting Feedback Loops”? What Factors Impact Effective Disaster Response-”System Delays (e.g. Information, Material)”?


APPENDIX: APPENDIX Topics Discussed Experimental Design Terrorist Scenarios Questionnaire Continued Avoiding Public Places Graph Verbatim Reactions Demands on Community Call Centers Summary Findings


Topics : Topics Scenario Analysis: Current Experiment with Disaster Scenarios: Risk Perception and Trust Simulation Model of Public Response Future Research


Experimental Design: Participants were randomly assigned to one of 6 groups (e.g., non-negligence/non-suicide with 495 fatalities) and asked to evaluate 16 damage scenarios. : Experimental Design: Participants were randomly assigned to one of 6 groups (e.g., non-negligence/non-suicide with 495 fatalities) and asked to evaluate 16 damage scenarios.


Terrorism Anthrax Release (terrorism, infectious disease, release of prisoners as motive, no suicide, government officials as victims, no fatalities) : Terrorism Anthrax Release (terrorism, infectious disease, release of prisoners as motive, no suicide, government officials as victims, no fatalities) Reports are now coming out that Anthrax was released 16 days ago at a local theme park during a tour by over a thousand government officials from around the state. An international terrorist group is claiming responsibility and demanding the release of several of its members who are in prison. It appears that a terrorist released the deadly infectious disease near the group of officials. A number of officials may have been exposed but no one has died.


Non-Terrorism Unintentional Propane Tank Explosion (non-terrorism, explosion, not intentional, negligence involved, government officials as victims, 495 casualties) : Non-Terrorism Unintentional Propane Tank Explosion (non-terrorism, explosion, not intentional, negligence involved, government officials as victims, 495 casualties) Reports are now coming out that a propane tank has exploded at a local theme park during a tour by over a thousand government officials from around the state. Authorities have ruled out foul play but are looking into the maintenance records of the tank. It appears that a faulty valve on the propane tank failed creating a massive explosion near the group of officials. Heavy fines may be issued pending an investigation. A large number of officials have serious injuries and at least 495 have died.


Terrorism Bomb Blast (terrorism, explosion, fear as motive, suicide involved, tourists as victims, 495 casualties): Terrorism Bomb Blast (terrorism, explosion, fear as motive, suicide involved, tourists as victims, 495 casualties) Reports are now coming out that a powerful bomb has gone off at a local theme park during unusually high attendance by tourists. An international terrorist group is claiming responsibility and promising to strike fear in the hearts of all Americans. It appears that a terrorist bent on suicide exploded the deadly bomb near a crowd of tourists. A large number of tourists have serious injuries and at least 495 have died.


Accident-Disease-Not Intentional-Negligence-Tourists-495: Accident-Disease-Not Intentional-Negligence-Tourists-495 Reports are now coming out that an infectious disease was released 16 days ago at a local theme park during unusually high attendance by tourists. Authorities have ruled out foul play but are looking into the health screening procedures followed during hiring. It appears that a recently hired food server was unconcerned about present medical symptoms and reported only having the flu on the application. This illness was overlooked by management and the server unknowingly exposed the deadly infectious disease to a crowd of tourists. Heavy fines may be issued pending an investigation. A large number of tourists have been exposed and at least 495 have died.


Questionnaire-Risk: Questionnaire-Risk Your Perceptions of Risk and Trust: To what degree do you trust “first responders” (police, firefighters and so forth) to quickly reduce any danger resulting from an event like this? Low Trust 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 High Trust To what degree do you trust “government officials” (President, Governor, Mayor and so forth) to help quickly reduce any danger resulting from an event like this? Low Trust 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 High Trust To what degree do you feel you could protect yourself from an event like this? Can’t Protect 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Can Protect To what degree would you feel at risk after learning of this event? Little Risk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Great Risk


Questionnaire-Behaviors: Questionnaire-Behaviors To what degree would you feel the need to avoid public places until this event was resolved? Would not avoid any public places Would avoid “theme parks” only Would avoid places like shopping malls, supermarkets, public transportation, as well as “theme parks” Would avoid almost all public places but would continue to go to my job Would avoid almost all public places including not going to my job


Terrorism Questionnaire Continued: Response Scales Not Shown: Terrorism Questionnaire Continued: Response Scales Not Shown Attention to Media 5. How much time would you spend following news coverage of this event? Your Contact and Conversations with Friends and Family 6. To what degree would you feel the need to contact friends and family to discuss this story after learning of this event? Your Behavior During and Following the Event 7. To what degree would this event cause you to worry about your safety throughout the day until this event was resolved? 8. Assuming you were not at the theme park, which of these health care services would you contact first for medical information about any danger to you or your family? 9. How soon after learning of this event would you first contact the service you chose in the previous question to obtain information about any danger? 10. To what degree would not being able to reach a health care provider to obtain information about information about any danger cause you concern during such an event? 11. To what degree would you feel the need to avoid public places until this event was resolved? 12. To what degree would you feel the need to leave the area until this event was resolved?


Avoiding Public Places: Propane Tank Explosion vs. Anthrax: Avoiding Public Places: Propane Tank Explosion vs. Anthrax


Reaction to Scenarios: Verbatim Comments: Reaction to Scenarios: Verbatim Comments Explosions are one-time things and unless you are at the point of impact there is little concern, infectious disease that kill are far more scary. Levels of negligence Whether or not the terrorist groups wanted their prisoners back or wanted to strike fear in the hearts of Americans Whether it was terrorist-related or whether the extent was thought to be intentional The infectious disease and Anthrax-contagious


Demands on Community Call Centers: Demands on Community Call Centers Toronto SARS: 47,000 calls/day peak (Bogdan 2004)


Summary Findings: Summary Findings Risk Perception Greatest for: Terrorism, Infectious Disease, Suicide/Negligence First Responder Trust: Greatest for: Non-terrorism, Explosions, Fewer Casualties Systems Modeling: Changes in Risk Characteristics or Investigative Closure Rapidly Increases Fear Social Support Groups Decrease Fear