Presentation Transcript
Is the world getting to be a more hazardous place?: Is the world getting to be a more hazardous place? Professor Adrian McDonald
University of Leeds
Structure: Structure Some general principles
Flooding
Fire
Fisheries
Ecology
Real or perceived?: Real or perceived? Unchanged hazards
Improved observation
Improved recording
Improved communication
Definitions: Definitions
Hazard
A danger or prospect of harm
Risk, vt.
Exposure to mischance.
Management, n.
Trickery, deceitful connivance.
Risk is quantified hazard: Risk is quantified hazard Probability
X
Consequence
= RISK
Slide6: Reported Disasters IFRC 2001 Floods
Third World and First World: Third World and First World Impacts in the first world cost money.
Impacts in the third world cost lives.
But
3rd world flooding is also an opportunity
Crop diversity
Crop security
These conclusions come from field studies by Matt Chadwick of the 1998 floods in India.
Population: Population Even if the hazards remain the same, the impacts will increase as the population increases and the value at risk increases
Urbanisation: Urbanisation The world is becoming increasingly urbanised. People and property are becoming increasingly concentrated and perhaps divorced from escape options.
Flooding: Flooding Is there evidence that flooding is getting worse?
Slide11: 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 Decadally-averaged annual precipitation (mm) Data from the River Ouse
Slide12: 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 1881-1890 1891-1900 1901-1910 1911-1920 1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 Decadally averaged annual maximum floods (m above Newlyn)
Slide13: 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1881-1890 1891-1900 1901-1910 1911-1920 1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 Number of peaks over 8.058 m threshold
Slide14: 0 500 1000 1500 2000 1965 1975 1985 1995 Hydrological year Annual rainfall (mm)
To summarise: To summarise Hidden in a time series of more variable annual rainfall totals is a picture of
declining rainfalls yet
bigger floods
more floods
Fires: Fires Good intentions?
The fire story: The fire story 2002 was a typical fire year in Canada compared against the ten year average. Canada recorded 7,824 fires destroying 2,757,174.91 hectares.
Reaction has been to contain fire: Reaction has been to contain fire Firebreaks
Slide19: Water bombers
Response: Response Rapattack teams (smokejumpers)
Firecrews
Aim is control within an acre
Adverse reaction: Adverse reaction Fires are natural
Now with a 20 year history of rapid response, enlarged fuel store
Current fires are bigger and hotter. From 10 to 50 1‘000 KW/m flame front
Cause and Effect Every action has a consequence In forest operations that consequence may not be seen for a generation: Cause and Effect Every action has a consequence In forest operations that consequence may not be seen for a generation Fireweed may compete with forest regrowth. Fireweed will attract insects, grazers and predators.
Sproat Lake, Vancouver Island 1978. Old growth Douglas Fir consumed 1967 by 7,000 ha Taylor River fire: Sproat Lake, Vancouver Island 1978. Old growth Douglas Fir consumed 1967 by 7,000 ha Taylor River fire
Natural Regeneration. Snag trees remain: Natural Regeneration. Snag trees remain
Fisheries: Fisheries
Sustainable yield: Sustainable yield Effort Cost Catch Value
Catch capacity: Catch capacity The development of the potential of a fleet to catch fish. It is a measure of capability rather than actual catch.
Development of Catch Capacity: Development of Catch Capacity Spear
Hook
Boat
Speed
Experience
Communication
Detection
Interpretation
Storage
Technology
Regulation: Regulation Quotas
Implementing the quota
By-catch
Reality