Presentation Transcript
Neighborhood Deals Are Not Enough : Neighborhood Deals Are Not Enough Marcus Svedberg Chief Analyst, SITE
Mind the gap – UA in between EU and RF: Mind the gap – UA in between EU and RF Growing economic importance and great potential
More political importance after revolution
Sensitive security situation may affect economic cooperation
Ukraine too important for both EU and RF to leave the initiative to the other party
Ukraine’s two-sided economic challenge: Ukraine’s two-sided economic challenge EU and RF almost equally important for Ukraine in terms of trade and FDI
Growing importance of EU25 trade and RF energy
Increased interest from large EU and RF investors
Not either/or but how to develop a strategic economic relation with EU and RF at the same time
Inadequate EU and RF policies: Inadequate EU and RF policies ENP too weak commitment and not likely powerful anchor for reform
ENP membership too wide (from Belarus to PA)
ENP not a first step towards EU membership
SES unlikely to materialize into strategic program
Ukraine hesitant and akward member of SES
SES lacks definition and implementation timetable
Weak enthusiasm in Ukraine for both ENP and SES
Conclusions: Conclusions Need for new political thinking on economics in Brussels and Moscow about Ukraine
Ukraine may, in the process, turn out to help define overall EU-RF economic cooperation
Ukrainian WTO membership likely to foster integration with EU
To close the gap: EU membership negotiations and strategic bilateral strategy with Russia
Slide6: SITE, Stockholm
www.hhs.se/site
BICEPS, Riga
www.biceps.org
CEFIR, Moscow
www.cefir.ru
WISER, Warsaw
www.wiser.org.pl
KEI, Kyiv
www.kei.org.ua
Slide7: Source: World Bank
Slide8: Source: World Bank
Slide9: Source: World Bank