Irelands Response

Ireland’s Response to theLooming World Energy Crisis : 

Ireland’s Response to the Looming World Energy Crisis by Colin Campbell ASPO

Background: 

Background 1951-7 Studied geology at Oxford PhD on Connemara geology That started a long love affair with Ireland 1958 - Joined the oil industry Exploration geologist in Latin America 1972- 90 Executive, Europe, Norway Pioneered Irish exploration venture 1972-76 1990 Retired - if that is the word

On a mule in Colombia in 1960: 

On a mule in Colombia in 1960

Outline: 

Outline Geological background “You have to find it first” Depletion is easy to grasp Why and how self-evident reality has been concealed and confused A Devastating Realisation Ireland’s Response

News Flash: 

News Flash $53 New York October 11 But may crash with Recession

PETROLEUM GEOLOGY in3 Minutes: 

PETROLEUM GEOLOGY in 3 Minutes

Slide7: 

Extreme Global Warming gave excessive Algal Growths Organic debris 90 & 150 million years ago

Slide8: 

Chemical reactions converted organic debris into oil when buried & heated Trough filled by sediment And then came the rains

North SeaOil GeneratingTrends-Where oil is and where it is not: 

North Sea Oil Generating Trends - Where oil is and where it is not

Slide10: 

1.Dissipation 2. Escape 3. Oilfield Source Migration of Oil Surface of the Earth Oil generation at 2000m depth 1 2 3

Slide11: 

Critical Temperature 60-120 0C

A Fixed Quantity: 

A Fixed Quantity Oil was formed in the geological past You can’t “grow” more Running Out? – Not the main issue We started running out with the first barrel The last barrel is far in the future But production begins to decline when half is gone - THAT IS THE ISSUE

Why we need to know: 

Why we need to know Oil & Gas now dominate our lives 40% of traded energy is oil >90% transport fuel is oil Trade depends on transport Much electricity from gas Critical for agriculture fuelling the tractor synthetic nutrients and pesticides pumping irrigation

Why were n’t we told?: 

Why were n’t we told? Oil companies reported “financial reserves” to meet strict stock exchange rules They under-reported & revised upwards over time A comforting but misleading image of steady growth No conspiracy, just simple commercial prudence Those days are over - the Shell debacle OPEC over-reported as they competed for quota based on reserves PUBLIC NUMBERS - VERY UNRELIABLE

Slide15: 

OPEC Reserve Revisions Change From Remaining Reserves To Total Found

Reality and Illusion: 

Reality and Illusion Inflexion due to falling Discovery Reality Illusion

US-48: 

US-48 Peak to Peak 40 years

Egypt: 

Egypt Peak to Peak 30 years

Indonesia: 

Indonesia Peak to Peak 32 years

Russia: 

Russia Peak to Peak 27 years

United Kingdom: 

United Kingdom Peak to Peak 25 years

Real Discovery Trend: 

Real Discovery Trend Past discovery by ExxonMobil Past after ExxonMobil

Draining the tanks - Regular Oil: 

Draining the tanks - Regular Oil 150 Yet-to-Find 920 Produced 1700 DISCOVERED 780 Remaining ? Filling at 3.75 p.a Emptying at 22 p.a. One in - Six out Surprise Billion barrels

Where is it?Regular Oil: 

Where is it? Regular Oil

All Oil & Gas: 

All Oil & Gas All boundaries fuzzy

The Devastating Realisation: 

The Devastating Realisation So, oil will soon be in terminal decline Gas follows a few years later Colossal Impact Economy - stockmarket crash inevitable Society Politics Environment We are totally unprepared

End of the First Half of Oil Age: 

End of the First Half of Oil Age First half lasted 150 years, stimulating Industry Transport & trade Agriculture & people Growth of financial capital Second Half dawns, meaning decline of oil And all that depends on it Including Financial Capital Spelling Recession - Depression

Population: 

Population First Oil Well ?

But World begins to wake up: 

But World begins to wake up This has been evident for years but denied We faced malign influence of Economists with outdated principles and practices Now at last, high prices force admission by World Energy Council International Energy Agency - obliquely Even BP (long bent on denial) now confesses US prefers military conquest of oil to cutting excessive demand

What this means for Ireland: 

What this means for Ireland Small population but high per-capita oil use USA- 27 barrels a year per person Ireland- 15.6 Europe Average- 13.1 India- 0.9 Gas - critical for electricity Slim chance of finding more oil or gas

Ireland’s Electricity: 

Ireland’s Electricity Priority in the early days of the Republic Shannon Hydro-electric scheme Rural electrification by ESB Electricity came to Ballydehob in 1951 It was a National Priority But then the CELTIC TIGER stalked in by dead of night & sold out to the Market

Ireland’s Electricity fuel: 

Ireland’s Electricity fuel Gas Coal Oil Peat Renewables 85% Imported !

Gas Supply: 

Gas Supply At first, Kinsale Head field supplied enough Then tapped into the UK hypermarket UK over-produced and prices fell But the Celtic Tiger could easily afford it Now we plan to half-privatise the ESB stimulating yet more consumption The Regulator tries even to cut costs to consumer But without a thought for the future.

Gas - the unexpected cliff : 

Gas - the unexpected cliff Hidden Spare Capacity No market signal of cliff Production Plateau

Ireland’s gas balance: 

Ireland’s gas balance Kinsale + Corrib UK net export ends **With flat demand** At HighRisk

Where will gas come from ?: 

Where will gas come from ? Britain becomes a net importer - from Norway Siberia Central Asia, Middle East, N. Africa……. Many hungry transit countries in between Ireland at the end of the line Will Britain re-export to Ireland ? When she needs all she can get and at what price?

A Grave Crisis in the Making: 

A Grave Crisis in the Making This is a major crisis in the making the lights will go out unless something is done An economic recession affecting everyone The Government seems blissfully ignorant Misplaced faith that the market must deliver Relies on bad advice form IEA, EU It needs to use the short time left to prepare Everyone needs to know and contribute

Plan of Action: 

Plan of Action Fund a small office to study properly Launch a programme of public education Don’t wait for Brussels It is an investment giving Ireland a strong competitive edge Take a lead in a World Depletion Protocol Back the 2005 Lisbon Initiative

Solution-1 : Stop waste: 

Solution-1 : Stop waste Domestic and industrial energy audits Charges to penalise waste & reward savings. A modest cheap ration but high price for excess Better insulation & industrial heat recovery Disallow energy costs as a charge against tax Stop tax-free aviation fuel More public transport

Solution-2: Turn to Renewables: 

Solution-2: Turn to Renewables A solar collector on every roof Capture massive tidal and wave energy Wind-power and hydro-power Biomass - wood pellets from forestry Geothermal Heat pumps & modern light bulbs Even nuclear ? (New small fail-safe plants)

Solution-3: Secure sources: 

Solution-3: Secure sources Don’t close coal power - clean it Negotiate with Norway (and other places) for privileged access to oil and gas. Ireland’s needs are modest and could be met Pay premium to-day for security tomorrow might still be time to buy into oil and gas fields Fill the tanks on Whiddy Island Build terminal for Liquefied gas

Consequences - Silver Linings: 

Consequences - Silver Linings A new regionalism Local markets New attitudes : return to the land People live in better harmony with themselves each other the Environment in which Nature has ordained them to live

The Celtic Fox thrives in Ireland: The Tiger belongs to the Zoo: 

The Celtic Fox thrives in Ireland: The Tiger belongs to the Zoo