economy

OREGON’S NEW REVENUE SYSTEM AND THE CHANGING ECONOMY:IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOL FINANCE : OREGON’S NEW REVENUE SYSTEM AND THE CHANGING ECONOMY: IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOL FINANCE LEGISLATIVE REVENUE OFFICE


OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM : OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM HOW HAS THE SYSTEM CHANGED? WHAT ARE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NEW SYSTEM? WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN FOR SCHOOL FINANCE?


Oregon Income and Property Taxes : Oregon Income and Property Taxes


OREGON’S GENERAL REVENUE MIX : OREGON’S GENERAL REVENUE MIX


STATES RANKED BY LARGEST TAX AS % OF STATE TAX COLLECTIONS : STATES RANKED BY LARGEST TAX AS % OF STATE TAX COLLECTIONS


OREGON’S STATE & LOCAL REVENUE SYSTEM : OREGON’S STATE & LOCAL REVENUE SYSTEM


CHARACTERISTICS OF OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM : CHARACTERISTICS OF OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM LOW TAX BURDEN HEAVY RELIANCE ON NON-TAX REVENUE HIGH PERSONAL INCOME TAX BURDEN LOW CONSUMPTION TAX BURDEN AVERAGE PROPERTY TAX BURDEN


LEGACY OF OREGON’S PROPERTY TAX INITIATIVES : LEGACY OF OREGON’S PROPERTY TAX INITIATIVES


OREGON’S TAX BURDEN: WHO PAYS? : OREGON’S TAX BURDEN: WHO PAYS?


THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT : THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ARE WE IN A RECESSION? HOW LONG WILL THE SLOWDOWN LAST? WHAT ARE OREGON’S PROSPECTS?


Slide11 : 1991-2000 Was a Great Decade The unemployment rate fell from 7% to 4%. Core inflation fell from 5.5% to 2.5%. Productivity and real wage growth accelerated. Household net worth doubled. The federal budget shifted from deficit to surplus.


OREGON’S ECONOMY PERFORMED VERY WELL IN THE 1990’S : OREGON’S ECONOMY PERFORMED VERY WELL IN THE 1990’S JOBS UP 30.1% WAGES UP 53.3% POPULATION UP 18.3% PER CAPITA INCOME UP 58.7% PRICES UP 43.2%


Slide13 : The Good Times Are Over Industrial production has fallen for 13 straight months. Longest consecutive monthly decline since 1932. Jobs have declined by 1.6 million over the past 6 months. Consumer confidence is at an 8-year low. Capacity utilization is lowest since 1983. The stock market peaked in March of 2000.


ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TERRORIST ATTACK : ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TERRORIST ATTACK PUSHES WEAK ECONOMY INTO RECESSION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINES FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY TURN MORE AGGRESSIVE V-SHAPED ECONOMY OVER NEXT TWO YEARS ADDITIONAL COSTS ADDED TO TRANSPORTATION & DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM COST OF CAPITAL INCREASES BECAUSE WORLD IS MORE UNCERTAIN


WHAT KIND OF RECESSION? : WHAT KIND OF RECESSION? 1990-91 EXPERIENCE ROLE OF BUSINESS INVESTMENT SPENDING INTERNATIONAL TRADE FEDERAL FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY


CONSENSUS CALLS FOR MILD RECESSION : CONSENSUS CALLS FOR MILD RECESSION Office of Economic Analysis The current expansion: 10 years and counting Expansion (Yellow) Contraction (Red) First Soft Landing Second Hard (Recession) Landing?


OREGON ALREADY IN RECESSION(CHANGE OCTOBER 01 VERSUS OCTOBER 00) : OREGON ALREADY IN RECESSION (CHANGE OCTOBER 01 VERSUS OCTOBER 00)


IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN?? : IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN?? YES CYCLICALLY SENSITIVE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE DEFENSE BUILD-UP HIGH LAND,LABOR & ENERGY COSTS STRONG $/WEAK FOREIGN TRADE


IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN?? : IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN?? NO: INTEREST RATES/INFLATION ENVIRONMENT HIGH TECHNOLOGY STRONG WESTERN REGION DEMOGRAPHICS


SEPTEMBER FORECAST CALLED FOR RESUMPTION OF MODEST JOB GROWTH : SEPTEMBER FORECAST CALLED FOR RESUMPTION OF MODEST JOB GROWTH Office of Economic Analysis Oregon’s employment growth rate dropped below the nation’s for the first time since 1985


THE STATE BUDGET SITUATION : THE STATE BUDGET SITUATION THE SEPTEMBER REVENUE FORECAST PROJECTS A GENERAL FUND DEFICIT OF $212 MILLION. ACROSS THE BOARD GENERAL FUND CUT OF $212 MILLION WOULD BE 1.86%. THE DECEMBER FORECAST WILL INCORPORATE THE ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF SEPTEMBER 11.


Biennial Growth in General Fund Revenues : Biennial Growth in General Fund Revenues Office of Economic Analysis


REVENUE GROWTH IS SLOWING(% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER) : REVENUE GROWTH IS SLOWING (% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER)


CORPORATE COLLECTIONS ARE FALLING SHARPLY(% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER) : CORPORATE COLLECTIONS ARE FALLING SHARPLY (% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER)


Slide25 : The Capital Gains Windfall Will Soon Disappear (Billions of dollars) (Percent)


Lottery resources available to the state : Lottery resources available to the state Office of Economic Analysis


GENERAL FUND ENDING BALANCE: HISTORY & PROJECTION : GENERAL FUND ENDING BALANCE: HISTORY & PROJECTION


2001-2003 BUDGET: GENERAL FUND & OTHER DICRETIONARY FUNDS : 2001-2003 BUDGET: GENERAL FUND & OTHER DICRETIONARY FUNDS


FUTURE UNKNOWNS : FUTURE UNKNOWNS DURATION & IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT NATIONAL ECONOMY: LENGTH & DEPTH OF RECESSION, STRENGTH OF RECOVERY OREGON’S PLACE IN THE NEW ENVIRONMENT ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN NEW ENVIRONMENT


2001-03 K-12/ESD RESOURCES : 2001-03 K-12/ESD RESOURCES


2001-03 STATE RESOURCES FOR SCHOOLS/ESDs : 2001-03 STATE RESOURCES FOR SCHOOLS/ESDs