logging in or signing up economy Malden Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 262 Category: Business & Fin.. License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: April 08, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript OREGON’S NEW REVENUE SYSTEM AND THE CHANGING ECONOMY: IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOL FINANCE : OREGON’S NEW REVENUE SYSTEM AND THE CHANGING ECONOMY: IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOL FINANCE LEGISLATIVE REVENUE OFFICE OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM: OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM HOW HAS THE SYSTEM CHANGED? WHAT ARE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NEW SYSTEM? WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN FOR SCHOOL FINANCE?Oregon Income and Property Taxes: Oregon Income and Property TaxesOREGON’S GENERAL REVENUE MIX : OREGON’S GENERAL REVENUE MIX STATES RANKED BY LARGEST TAX AS % OF STATE TAX COLLECTIONS: STATES RANKED BY LARGEST TAX AS % OF STATE TAX COLLECTIONSOREGON’S STATE & LOCAL REVENUE SYSTEM : OREGON’S STATE & LOCAL REVENUE SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS OF OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM : CHARACTERISTICS OF OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM LOW TAX BURDEN HEAVY RELIANCE ON NON-TAX REVENUE HIGH PERSONAL INCOME TAX BURDEN LOW CONSUMPTION TAX BURDEN AVERAGE PROPERTY TAX BURDENLEGACY OF OREGON’S PROPERTY TAX INITIATIVES: LEGACY OF OREGON’S PROPERTY TAX INITIATIVESOREGON’S TAX BURDEN: WHO PAYS?: OREGON’S TAX BURDEN: WHO PAYS?THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT: THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ARE WE IN A RECESSION? HOW LONG WILL THE SLOWDOWN LAST? WHAT ARE OREGON’S PROSPECTS?Slide11: 1991-2000 Was a Great Decade The unemployment rate fell from 7% to 4%. Core inflation fell from 5.5% to 2.5%. Productivity and real wage growth accelerated. Household net worth doubled. The federal budget shifted from deficit to surplus.OREGON’S ECONOMY PERFORMED VERY WELL IN THE 1990’S: OREGON’S ECONOMY PERFORMED VERY WELL IN THE 1990’S JOBS UP 30.1% WAGES UP 53.3% POPULATION UP 18.3% PER CAPITA INCOME UP 58.7% PRICES UP 43.2%Slide13: The Good Times Are Over Industrial production has fallen for 13 straight months. Longest consecutive monthly decline since 1932. Jobs have declined by 1.6 million over the past 6 months. Consumer confidence is at an 8-year low. Capacity utilization is lowest since 1983. The stock market peaked in March of 2000.ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TERRORIST ATTACK: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TERRORIST ATTACK PUSHES WEAK ECONOMY INTO RECESSION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINES FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY TURN MORE AGGRESSIVE V-SHAPED ECONOMY OVER NEXT TWO YEARS ADDITIONAL COSTS ADDED TO TRANSPORTATION & DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM COST OF CAPITAL INCREASES BECAUSE WORLD IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHAT KIND OF RECESSION?: WHAT KIND OF RECESSION? 1990-91 EXPERIENCE ROLE OF BUSINESS INVESTMENT SPENDING INTERNATIONAL TRADE FEDERAL FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICYCONSENSUS CALLS FOR MILD RECESSION: CONSENSUS CALLS FOR MILD RECESSION Office of Economic Analysis The current expansion: 10 years and counting Expansion (Yellow) Contraction (Red) First Soft Landing Second Hard (Recession) Landing?OREGON ALREADY IN RECESSION (CHANGE OCTOBER 01 VERSUS OCTOBER 00): OREGON ALREADY IN RECESSION (CHANGE OCTOBER 01 VERSUS OCTOBER 00)IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN??: IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN?? YES CYCLICALLY SENSITIVE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE DEFENSE BUILD-UP HIGH LAND,LABOR & ENERGY COSTS STRONG $/WEAK FOREIGN TRADE IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN??: IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN?? NO: INTEREST RATES/INFLATION ENVIRONMENT HIGH TECHNOLOGY STRONG WESTERN REGION DEMOGRAPHICS SEPTEMBER FORECAST CALLED FOR RESUMPTION OF MODEST JOB GROWTH: SEPTEMBER FORECAST CALLED FOR RESUMPTION OF MODEST JOB GROWTH Office of Economic Analysis Oregon’s employment growth rate dropped below the nation’s for the first time since 1985THE STATE BUDGET SITUATION: THE STATE BUDGET SITUATION THE SEPTEMBER REVENUE FORECAST PROJECTS A GENERAL FUND DEFICIT OF $212 MILLION. ACROSS THE BOARD GENERAL FUND CUT OF $212 MILLION WOULD BE 1.86%. THE DECEMBER FORECAST WILL INCORPORATE THE ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF SEPTEMBER 11.Biennial Growth in General Fund Revenues: Biennial Growth in General Fund Revenues Office of Economic AnalysisREVENUE GROWTH IS SLOWING (% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER): REVENUE GROWTH IS SLOWING (% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER)CORPORATE COLLECTIONS ARE FALLING SHARPLY (% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER): CORPORATE COLLECTIONS ARE FALLING SHARPLY (% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER)Slide25: The Capital Gains Windfall Will Soon Disappear (Billions of dollars) (Percent)Lottery resources available to the state: Lottery resources available to the state Office of Economic AnalysisGENERAL FUND ENDING BALANCE: HISTORY & PROJECTION: GENERAL FUND ENDING BALANCE: HISTORY & PROJECTION2001-2003 BUDGET: GENERAL FUND & OTHER DICRETIONARY FUNDS : 2001-2003 BUDGET: GENERAL FUND & OTHER DICRETIONARY FUNDS FUTURE UNKNOWNS: FUTURE UNKNOWNS DURATION & IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT NATIONAL ECONOMY: LENGTH & DEPTH OF RECESSION, STRENGTH OF RECOVERY OREGON’S PLACE IN THE NEW ENVIRONMENT ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN NEW ENVIRONMENT2001-03 K-12/ESD RESOURCES: 2001-03 K-12/ESD RESOURCES2001-03 STATE RESOURCES FOR SCHOOLS/ESDs: 2001-03 STATE RESOURCES FOR SCHOOLS/ESDs You do not have the permission to view this presentation. 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economy Malden Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 262 Category: Business & Fin.. License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: April 08, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript OREGON’S NEW REVENUE SYSTEM AND THE CHANGING ECONOMY: IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOL FINANCE : OREGON’S NEW REVENUE SYSTEM AND THE CHANGING ECONOMY: IMPLICATIONS FOR SCHOOL FINANCE LEGISLATIVE REVENUE OFFICE OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM: OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM HOW HAS THE SYSTEM CHANGED? WHAT ARE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NEW SYSTEM? WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN FOR SCHOOL FINANCE?Oregon Income and Property Taxes: Oregon Income and Property TaxesOREGON’S GENERAL REVENUE MIX : OREGON’S GENERAL REVENUE MIX STATES RANKED BY LARGEST TAX AS % OF STATE TAX COLLECTIONS: STATES RANKED BY LARGEST TAX AS % OF STATE TAX COLLECTIONSOREGON’S STATE & LOCAL REVENUE SYSTEM : OREGON’S STATE & LOCAL REVENUE SYSTEM CHARACTERISTICS OF OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM : CHARACTERISTICS OF OREGON’S REVENUE SYSTEM LOW TAX BURDEN HEAVY RELIANCE ON NON-TAX REVENUE HIGH PERSONAL INCOME TAX BURDEN LOW CONSUMPTION TAX BURDEN AVERAGE PROPERTY TAX BURDENLEGACY OF OREGON’S PROPERTY TAX INITIATIVES: LEGACY OF OREGON’S PROPERTY TAX INITIATIVESOREGON’S TAX BURDEN: WHO PAYS?: OREGON’S TAX BURDEN: WHO PAYS?THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT: THE ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ARE WE IN A RECESSION? HOW LONG WILL THE SLOWDOWN LAST? WHAT ARE OREGON’S PROSPECTS?Slide11: 1991-2000 Was a Great Decade The unemployment rate fell from 7% to 4%. Core inflation fell from 5.5% to 2.5%. Productivity and real wage growth accelerated. Household net worth doubled. The federal budget shifted from deficit to surplus.OREGON’S ECONOMY PERFORMED VERY WELL IN THE 1990’S: OREGON’S ECONOMY PERFORMED VERY WELL IN THE 1990’S JOBS UP 30.1% WAGES UP 53.3% POPULATION UP 18.3% PER CAPITA INCOME UP 58.7% PRICES UP 43.2%Slide13: The Good Times Are Over Industrial production has fallen for 13 straight months. Longest consecutive monthly decline since 1932. Jobs have declined by 1.6 million over the past 6 months. Consumer confidence is at an 8-year low. Capacity utilization is lowest since 1983. The stock market peaked in March of 2000.ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TERRORIST ATTACK: ECONOMIC IMPACT OF TERRORIST ATTACK PUSHES WEAK ECONOMY INTO RECESSION CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINES FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICY TURN MORE AGGRESSIVE V-SHAPED ECONOMY OVER NEXT TWO YEARS ADDITIONAL COSTS ADDED TO TRANSPORTATION & DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM COST OF CAPITAL INCREASES BECAUSE WORLD IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHAT KIND OF RECESSION?: WHAT KIND OF RECESSION? 1990-91 EXPERIENCE ROLE OF BUSINESS INVESTMENT SPENDING INTERNATIONAL TRADE FEDERAL FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICYCONSENSUS CALLS FOR MILD RECESSION: CONSENSUS CALLS FOR MILD RECESSION Office of Economic Analysis The current expansion: 10 years and counting Expansion (Yellow) Contraction (Red) First Soft Landing Second Hard (Recession) Landing?OREGON ALREADY IN RECESSION (CHANGE OCTOBER 01 VERSUS OCTOBER 00): OREGON ALREADY IN RECESSION (CHANGE OCTOBER 01 VERSUS OCTOBER 00)IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN??: IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN?? YES CYCLICALLY SENSITIVE INDUSTRY STRUCTURE DEFENSE BUILD-UP HIGH LAND,LABOR & ENERGY COSTS STRONG $/WEAK FOREIGN TRADE IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN??: IS THIS THE EARLY 1980s ALL OVER AGAIN?? NO: INTEREST RATES/INFLATION ENVIRONMENT HIGH TECHNOLOGY STRONG WESTERN REGION DEMOGRAPHICS SEPTEMBER FORECAST CALLED FOR RESUMPTION OF MODEST JOB GROWTH: SEPTEMBER FORECAST CALLED FOR RESUMPTION OF MODEST JOB GROWTH Office of Economic Analysis Oregon’s employment growth rate dropped below the nation’s for the first time since 1985THE STATE BUDGET SITUATION: THE STATE BUDGET SITUATION THE SEPTEMBER REVENUE FORECAST PROJECTS A GENERAL FUND DEFICIT OF $212 MILLION. ACROSS THE BOARD GENERAL FUND CUT OF $212 MILLION WOULD BE 1.86%. THE DECEMBER FORECAST WILL INCORPORATE THE ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF SEPTEMBER 11.Biennial Growth in General Fund Revenues: Biennial Growth in General Fund Revenues Office of Economic AnalysisREVENUE GROWTH IS SLOWING (% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER): REVENUE GROWTH IS SLOWING (% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER)CORPORATE COLLECTIONS ARE FALLING SHARPLY (% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER): CORPORATE COLLECTIONS ARE FALLING SHARPLY (% CHANGE COMPARED TO YEAR EARLIER)Slide25: The Capital Gains Windfall Will Soon Disappear (Billions of dollars) (Percent)Lottery resources available to the state: Lottery resources available to the state Office of Economic AnalysisGENERAL FUND ENDING BALANCE: HISTORY & PROJECTION: GENERAL FUND ENDING BALANCE: HISTORY & PROJECTION2001-2003 BUDGET: GENERAL FUND & OTHER DICRETIONARY FUNDS : 2001-2003 BUDGET: GENERAL FUND & OTHER DICRETIONARY FUNDS FUTURE UNKNOWNS: FUTURE UNKNOWNS DURATION & IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT NATIONAL ECONOMY: LENGTH & DEPTH OF RECESSION, STRENGTH OF RECOVERY OREGON’S PLACE IN THE NEW ENVIRONMENT ROLE OF GOVERNMENT IN NEW ENVIRONMENT2001-03 K-12/ESD RESOURCES: 2001-03 K-12/ESD RESOURCES2001-03 STATE RESOURCES FOR SCHOOLS/ESDs: 2001-03 STATE RESOURCES FOR SCHOOLS/ESDs