hall peter

A GLOBALURBAN AGENDAProfessor Sir Peter Hall: 

A GLOBAL URBAN AGENDA Professor Sir Peter Hall Urban Land Institute London Wednesday June 15 2005

2007: A key human milestone?: 

2007: A key human milestone? Most people in cities 2000- 2025: Urban Population to double 2025: 61% in cities

Most in developing world: 

Most in developing world 2015: 358 "million cities": 153 in Asia 27 “mega-cities”, 10m+: 18 in Asia

Mega Cities: 1995 and 2015: 

Mega Cities: 1995 and 2015 Source: United Nations 1996, 451-456.

Urban Future 21 (2000):Three Kinds of City: 

Urban Future 21 (2000): Three Kinds of City TYPE 1: The City coping with informal hypergrowth TYPE 2: The City managing dynamic growth TYPE 3: The Mature City coping with ageing

Type 1: The City coping with informal hypergrowth: 

Sub-Saharan Africa, Indian subcontinent, Middle East, some poorer cities of Latin America and the Caribbean Rapid population growth Economy depends on informal sector Poverty: widespread Large informal housing areas Basic problems: environment, public heath Governance: difficult Type 1: The City coping with informal hypergrowth

The City coping with informal hypergrowth: 

The City coping with informal hypergrowth Economy can’t keep pace with population High birth rates – poorly educated women Surplus of unskilled labour Informal economy: casual work and petty trading Dire poverty – especially women Answer: Female education: lower birth rates

The City coping with informal hypergrowth: 

The City coping with informal hypergrowth Key: Cities: formalising the informal economy; Strengthen relationships to mainstream Through: Microcredit Networks Picture: Soweto, South Africa

Type 2: The City managing dynamic growth: 

Type 2: The City managing dynamic growth Middle-income rapidly-developing world Much of East Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and the Middle East – also South Africa Population growth reducing Prospect: ageing populations Rapid economic growth – but new challenges Prosperity brings environmental problems

Then and Now…: 

Then and Now… 1905: London, Paris, Berlin, New York versus 2005: São Paulo, Mexico City, Caracas, Bogotá Housing: then formal slums (permanent construction, subdivided, overcrowded) Housing: now informal slums: self-built, unserviced Transport: then extensive Metro system, just built Transport: now rudimentary Metro network, being extended

London 1905: East End slum: 

London 1905: East End slum

São Paulo 2005:Heliopolis, Paraisopolis: 

São Paulo 2005: Heliopolis, Paraisopolis

London 1905: 6.8 million: 

London 1905: 6.8 million

São Paulo 2005: 18 million: 

São Paulo 2005: 18 million

Informal Settlements:Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro: 

Informal Settlements: Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro

Housing: How adequate?: 

Housing: How adequate? Source: UN-Habitat, Global Report on Human Settlements 2003

The World’s Slums: 

The World’s Slums Source: UN-Habitat, The State of the World’s Cities 2004/2005

The World’s Slum Dwellers: 

The World’s Slum Dwellers Source: UN-Habitat, The State of the World’s Cities 2004/2005

Slums and Income Inequality: 

Slums and Income Inequality Source: UN-Habitat, The State of the World’s Cities 2004/2005

Housing: Different Paths: 

Housing: Different Paths The Asian Pacific way: City provides high-quality housing The Latin American way: Formalise informal housing: communal self-help to create middle-class neighbourhoods No one right way here; same goal, different paths

Housing: Pacific Asia: 

Housing: Pacific Asia City provides high-quality housing Rented, owner-occupied (but state-managed)

Housing: Latin America: 

Housing: Latin America Formalise informal housing: Communal self-help to create middle-class neighbourhoods Pictures: Nezahualcóyotl, Mexico, 1980 and 2004

Transport: Same Story: 

Transport: Same Story Pacific Asian cities: High-density development, top-quality metros Latin American cities: Innovative bus systems Singapore and Curitiba: two model cities, look alike: integrated land use and transportation Again: Same Goal – Different Paths

Transport: Pacific Asian Cities: 

Transport: Pacific Asian Cities High-density development Top-quality metros High-density housing

Integrating Transport and Land Use: Singapore, Curitiba: 

Integrating Transport and Land Use: Singapore, Curitiba Singapore and Curitiba: two model cities Look alike: integrated land use and transportation Same goal, similar achievement - yet very different means

The Latin American Breakthrough: Busway Cities: 

The Latin American Breakthrough: Busway Cities Metro systems less developed – especially 30 years ago (recent extensions) Money lacking So, “make a virtue of necessity” Curitiba: “Bus Metro” Widely hailed, now imitated Bogotá, São Paulo, etc Brazilian engineers: took the lead The key: integrated bus service/land use

Bus Transit Pioneer: Curitiba: 

Bus Transit Pioneer: Curitiba Innovative bus systems Express, Orbital, Local High capacities High-speed transfer stations Integrated land use: high-density corridors Photos: Lars Friberg

Busway Capacity:Curitiba: 

Busway Capacity: Curitiba Illustrations: Lars Friberg

Transport Infrastructure Costs:Buses cheaper: 

Transport Infrastructure Costs: Buses cheaper Source: Golub 2004

Transport: Conclusions: 

Transport: Conclusions Bus-based cities do work Can deliver good service, high volumes, at low cost But can they do so everywhere? Especially: to the periphery? Will the transport problem get worse? No: because of the new phenomenon: The Mega-City-Region

The New Feature:Mega-City-Regions: 

The New Feature: Mega-City-Regions 2020: 2/3 ASEAN population in 5 MCRs: Bangkok (30m) Kuala Lumpur-Klang (6m) Singapore Triangle (10m) Java (100m) Manila (30m) East Asia: even bigger: Tokyo-Nagoya-Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe (60m) Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou (120m) Shanghai-Nanjing (83m)

Mega-City Regionsin Latin America: 

Mega-City Regions in Latin America Decentralisation/Recentralisation (“Concentrated deconcentration”) Mexico City: more than half population outside Distrito Federal São Paulo: city 10m, metro 19.8m Buenos Aires: 12m, but only 3.5m in Capital Federal Bogotá: population grew 40%, but travel distances stayed same! Source: UN-Habitat, The State of the World’s Cities 2004/2005

Mexico City: Latin American Mega-City-Region: 

Mexico City: Latin American Mega-City-Region

Mexico City: Latin American Mega-City-Region: 

Mexico City: Latin American Mega-City-Region Source: Aguilar and Ward 2003

Mexico City Metro Zones: 

Mexico City Metro Zones Source: Aguilar and Ward 2003

Mexico City Metro: Settlements: 

Mexico City Metro: Settlements

Mexico City Metro: Services: 

Mexico City Metro: Services Source: Aguilar and Ward 2003

Mega-City-Region Problem: Fragmented Governance: 

Mega-City-Region Problem: Fragmented Governance Mexico City: 28 municipalities São Paulo: 39 districts/municipalities Rio de Janeiro: 13 municipalities Buenos Aires: 20 municipalities, varying autonomy Curitiba: 25 municipalities Source: UN-Habitat, The State of the World’s Cities 2004/2005

Curitiba and its Region: 

Curitiba and its Region 25 municipalities; City: 61% population, falling 500,000 below poverty line 89,000 substandard units in 903 areas Only 58% sewered; only 35% sewerage treated COMEC: plans, no action, no powers Source: Macedo 2004

The Need for Metro Governance: 

The Need for Metro Governance Growth of Mega-City-Regions The Solution – re-balance homes, jobs, transport But also the Problem: needs effective planning, powers, action… …at a Metro scale Otherwise: the risk: Rich cities, poor peripheries Could get worse! Must make better!

Type 3: The Mature Citycoping with ageing: 

Type 3: The Mature City coping with ageing North America, Europe, Japan and parts of East Asia, and Australasia Population: stable or declining Challenges: ageing, household fissioning Slow economic growth Social polarization But: resources to tackle environmental problems The pattern: dispersion and reconcentration: growth of smaller cities, challenge to core cities

The Mature City:Problems (1) Polarization: 

The Mature City: Problems (1) Polarization Basic economic problem: solved Advanced service cities But: deindustrialization - leaves many stranded The answer: “education, education, education”

The Mature City:Problems (2): Ageing: 

The Mature City: Problems (2): Ageing Lower innovative potential How can cities stay flexible Lifelong learning? New associations of old people – substitutes for traditional families? How to overcome the “burden of dependency”? One outcome: a new wave of immigration?

The Mature City: Problems (3):Sustainable Quality: 

The Mature City: Problems (3): Sustainable Quality Cities compete globally Environment/Quality of Life: A Key Factor Dutch/German/Swiss Cities: Compact, Public Transport/Bike/Walk Oriented USA/Europe: New Urbanism, Urban Renaissance UK: A Sustainable Mega-City Region

Sustainable Quality:European Cities: 

Sustainable Quality: European Cities Compact, Public Transport/Bike/Walk Oriented Pedestrianized CBDs Traffic Calming High-Quality Public Transport Integration: Heavy/Light Rail Restraining Traffic by Congestion Charging

Pedestrian Cities:Munich, Manchester: 

Pedestrian Cities: Munich, Manchester

Calming Traffic:Berlin, Eschwege: 

Calming Traffic: Berlin, Eschwege

Sustainable Transport:Freiburg, Karlsruhe: 

Sustainable Transport: Freiburg, Karlsruhe

Integrated Transport: Grenoble: 

Integrated Transport: Grenoble

Integrated Transit: Zürich: 

Integrated Transit: Zürich

Restraining Traffic:Singapore, Oslo, London: 

Restraining Traffic: Singapore, Oslo, London

New Urbanismin US & Europe: 

New Urbanism in US & Europe Return to Traditional Built Forms Higher Densities (How Dense?) UK: Urban Task Force Urban Renaissance: UK Examples Cultural/Sport Regeneration European Examples: Denser

New Urbanism: Mountain View, CA/Kentlands, MD: 

New Urbanism: Mountain View, CA/Kentlands, MD

New Urbanism in Britain:Poundbury: 

New Urbanism in Britain: Poundbury

Urban Task Force Principles:Linked Neighbourhoods: 

Urban Task Force Principles: Linked Neighbourhoods

Urban Task Force:Mixed Use: 

Urban Task Force: Mixed Use

Urban Renaissance: Birmingham: 

Urban Renaissance: Birmingham

Urban Renaissance UK:New East Manchester: 

Urban Renaissance UK: New East Manchester

Urban Renaissance UK:Glasgow, Crown Street: 

Urban Renaissance UK: Glasgow, Crown Street

Urban Renaissance Europe:Amsterdam, Java Island: 

Urban Renaissance Europe: Amsterdam, Java Island

Urban Renaissance:The Critical Question: 

Urban Renaissance: The Critical Question Outstanding successes…but… Geared to Yuppies/Dinkies The argument: UK, 80% new households are one-person! But: they want space too And: cities are for families too! So: bring the families back What kind of housing?

Densities compared: 

Densities compared Source: Rudlin and Falk, Building the 21st century Home

Planning forSustainable Growth: 

Planning for Sustainable Growth Paris: Restructuring the City Role of Transportation: crucial Amsterdam, Tokyo: New-Style Edge Cities London: Docklands/Thames Gateway USA (Calthorpe) /UK (Breheny/ Rookwood): Sustainable Transport Corridors UK: Sustainable Communities Strategy 2003

Regional Metros:Stockholm, Copenhagen: 

Regional Metros: Stockholm, Copenhagen

Paris Orbitale:Creating a New CBD: 

Paris Orbitale: Creating a New CBD

Paris: Orbitale:Creating a new CBD: 

Paris: Orbitale: Creating a new CBD

Edge City, European Style:Amsterdam Zuidas: 

Edge City, European Style: Amsterdam Zuidas

Docklands/Thames GatewayReversing London’s Growth: 

Docklands/Thames Gateway Reversing London’s Growth

Thames Gateway Targets: 

Thames Gateway Targets

New Urbanism, British Style:Greenwich Peninsula: 

New Urbanism, British Style: Greenwich Peninsula

European Mega-City-Regions: 

European Mega-City-Regions

Ideal Urban Forms:UK, USA: 

Ideal Urban Forms: UK, USA

Building Sustainable City Clusters: 

Building Sustainable City Clusters

UK: Sustainable City Clusters: 

UK: Sustainable City Clusters

Thames Gateway: Stratford 1999, 2012: 

Thames Gateway: Stratford 1999, 2012

Eastern Quarry to Ebbsfleet Valley: 

Eastern Quarry to Ebbsfleet Valley

So, in Conclusion…: 

So, in Conclusion… Has been Done! Is being Done! Can be Done! Needs: Money, Powers, Imagination, Determination! Money: public and private: how combine? Powers: Special Purpose Vehicles: UDCs, URCs Learn from Best Practice