A GLOBAL URBAN AGENDA Professor Sir Peter Hall : A GLOBAL URBAN AGENDA Professor Sir Peter Hall Urban Land Institute
London
Wednesday June 15 2005
2007: A key human milestone? : 2007: A key human milestone? Most people in cities
2000- 2025: Urban Population to double
2025: 61% in cities
Most in developing world : Most in developing world 2015:
358 "million cities":
153 in Asia
27 “mega-cities”, 10m+: 18 in Asia
Mega Cities: 1995 and 2015 : Mega Cities: 1995 and 2015 Source: United Nations 1996, 451-456.
Urban Future 21 (2000): Three Kinds of City : Urban Future 21 (2000): Three Kinds of City TYPE 1: The City coping with informal hypergrowth
TYPE 2: The City managing dynamic growth
TYPE 3: The Mature City coping with ageing
Type 1: The City coping with informal hypergrowth : Sub-Saharan Africa, Indian subcontinent, Middle East, some poorer cities of Latin America and the Caribbean
Rapid population growth
Economy depends on informal sector
Poverty: widespread
Large informal housing areas
Basic problems: environment, public heath
Governance: difficult Type 1: The City coping with informal hypergrowth
The City coping with informal hypergrowth : The City coping with informal hypergrowth Economy can’t keep pace with population
High birth rates – poorly educated women
Surplus of unskilled labour
Informal economy: casual work and petty trading
Dire poverty – especially women
Answer: Female education: lower birth rates
The City coping with informal hypergrowth : The City coping with informal hypergrowth Key: Cities: formalising the informal economy; Strengthen relationships to mainstream
Through: Microcredit Networks
Picture: Soweto, South Africa
Type 2: The City managing dynamic growth : Type 2: The City managing dynamic growth Middle-income rapidly-developing world
Much of East Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and the Middle East – also South Africa
Population growth reducing
Prospect: ageing populations
Rapid economic growth – but new challenges
Prosperity brings environmental problems
Then and Now… : Then and Now… 1905: London, Paris, Berlin, New York versus
2005: São Paulo, Mexico City, Caracas, Bogotá
Housing: then formal slums (permanent construction, subdivided, overcrowded)
Housing: now informal slums: self-built, unserviced
Transport: then extensive Metro system, just built
Transport: now rudimentary Metro network, being extended
London 1905: East End slum : London 1905: East End slum
São Paulo 2005: Heliopolis, Paraisopolis : São Paulo 2005: Heliopolis, Paraisopolis
London 1905: 6.8 million : London 1905: 6.8 million
São Paulo 2005: 18 million : São Paulo 2005: 18 million
Informal Settlements: Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro : Informal Settlements: Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro
Housing: How adequate? : Housing: How adequate? Source: UN-Habitat, Global Report on Human Settlements 2003
The World’s Slums : The World’s Slums Source: UN-Habitat, The State of the World’s Cities 2004/2005
The World’s Slum Dwellers : The World’s Slum Dwellers Source: UN-Habitat, The State of the World’s Cities 2004/2005
Slums and Income Inequality : Slums and Income Inequality Source: UN-Habitat, The State of the World’s Cities 2004/2005
Housing: Different Paths : Housing: Different Paths
The Asian Pacific way:
City provides high-quality housing
The Latin American way:
Formalise informal housing: communal self-help to create middle-class neighbourhoods
No one right way here; same goal, different paths
Housing: Pacific Asia : Housing: Pacific Asia City provides high-quality housing
Rented, owner-occupied (but state-managed)
Housing: Latin America : Housing: Latin America Formalise informal housing:
Communal self-help to create middle-class neighbourhoods Pictures: Nezahualcóyotl, Mexico, 1980 and 2004
Transport: Same Story : Transport: Same Story Pacific Asian cities:
High-density development, top-quality metros
Latin American cities:
Innovative bus systems
Singapore and Curitiba: two model cities, look alike: integrated land use and transportation
Again: Same Goal – Different Paths
Transport: Pacific Asian Cities : Transport: Pacific Asian Cities High-density development
Top-quality metros
High-density housing
Integrating Transport and Land Use: Singapore, Curitiba : Integrating Transport and Land Use: Singapore, Curitiba Singapore and Curitiba: two model cities
Look alike: integrated land use and transportation
Same goal, similar achievement - yet very different means
The Latin American Breakthrough: Busway Cities : The Latin American Breakthrough: Busway Cities Metro systems less developed – especially 30 years ago (recent extensions)
Money lacking
So, “make a virtue of necessity”
Curitiba: “Bus Metro”
Widely hailed, now imitated
Bogotá, São Paulo, etc
Brazilian engineers: took the lead
The key: integrated bus service/land use
Bus Transit Pioneer: Curitiba : Bus Transit Pioneer: Curitiba Innovative bus systems
Express, Orbital, Local
High capacities
High-speed transfer stations
Integrated land use: high-density corridors Photos: Lars Friberg
Busway Capacity: Curitiba : Busway Capacity: Curitiba Illustrations: Lars Friberg
Transport Infrastructure Costs: Buses cheaper : Transport Infrastructure Costs: Buses cheaper Source: Golub 2004
Transport: Conclusions : Transport: Conclusions Bus-based cities do work
Can deliver good service, high volumes, at low cost
But can they do so everywhere?
Especially: to the periphery?
Will the transport problem get worse?
No: because of the new phenomenon:
The Mega-City-Region
The New Feature: Mega-City-Regions : The New Feature: Mega-City-Regions 2020: 2/3 ASEAN population in 5 MCRs:
Bangkok (30m)
Kuala Lumpur-Klang (6m)
Singapore Triangle (10m)
Java (100m)
Manila (30m)
East Asia: even bigger:
Tokyo-Nagoya-Kyoto-Osaka-Kobe (60m)
Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou (120m)
Shanghai-Nanjing (83m)
Mega-City Regions in Latin America : Mega-City Regions in Latin America Decentralisation/Recentralisation (“Concentrated deconcentration”)
Mexico City: more than half population outside Distrito Federal
São Paulo: city 10m, metro 19.8m
Buenos Aires: 12m, but only 3.5m in Capital Federal
Bogotá: population grew 40%, but travel distances stayed same! Source: UN-Habitat, The State of the World’s Cities 2004/2005
Mexico City: Latin American Mega-City-Region : Mexico City: Latin American Mega-City-Region
Mexico City: Latin American Mega-City-Region : Mexico City: Latin American Mega-City-Region Source:
Aguilar and Ward 2003
Mexico City Metro Zones : Mexico City Metro Zones Source:
Aguilar and Ward 2003
Mexico City Metro: Settlements : Mexico City Metro: Settlements
Mexico City Metro: Services : Mexico City Metro: Services Source:
Aguilar and Ward 2003
Mega-City-Region Problem: Fragmented Governance : Mega-City-Region Problem: Fragmented Governance Mexico City: 28 municipalities
São Paulo: 39 districts/municipalities
Rio de Janeiro: 13 municipalities
Buenos Aires: 20 municipalities, varying autonomy
Curitiba: 25 municipalities Source: UN-Habitat, The State of the World’s Cities 2004/2005
Curitiba and its Region : Curitiba and its Region 25 municipalities; City: 61% population, falling
500,000 below poverty line
89,000 substandard units in 903 areas
Only 58% sewered; only 35% sewerage treated
COMEC: plans, no action, no powers Source:
Macedo 2004
The Need for Metro Governance : The Need for Metro Governance Growth of Mega-City-Regions
The Solution – re-balance homes, jobs, transport
But also the Problem: needs effective planning, powers, action…
…at a Metro scale
Otherwise: the risk:
Rich cities, poor peripheries
Could get worse!
Must make better!
Type 3: The Mature City coping with ageing : Type 3: The Mature City coping with ageing North America, Europe, Japan and parts of East Asia, and Australasia
Population: stable or declining
Challenges: ageing, household fissioning
Slow economic growth
Social polarization
But: resources to tackle environmental problems
The pattern: dispersion and reconcentration: growth of smaller cities, challenge to core cities
The Mature City: Problems (1) Polarization : The Mature City: Problems (1) Polarization Basic economic problem: solved
Advanced service cities
But: deindustrialization - leaves many stranded
The answer: “education, education, education”
The Mature City: Problems (2): Ageing : The Mature City: Problems (2): Ageing Lower innovative potential
How can cities stay flexible
Lifelong learning?
New associations of old people – substitutes for traditional families?
How to overcome the “burden of dependency”?
One outcome: a new wave of immigration?
The Mature City: Problems (3): Sustainable Quality : The Mature City: Problems (3): Sustainable Quality Cities compete globally
Environment/Quality of Life: A Key Factor
Dutch/German/Swiss Cities: Compact, Public Transport/Bike/Walk Oriented
USA/Europe: New Urbanism, Urban Renaissance
UK: A Sustainable Mega-City Region
Sustainable Quality: European Cities : Sustainable Quality: European Cities Compact, Public Transport/Bike/Walk Oriented
Pedestrianized CBDs
Traffic Calming
High-Quality Public Transport
Integration: Heavy/Light Rail
Restraining Traffic by Congestion Charging
Pedestrian Cities: Munich, Manchester : Pedestrian Cities: Munich, Manchester
Calming Traffic: Berlin, Eschwege : Calming Traffic: Berlin, Eschwege
Sustainable Transport: Freiburg, Karlsruhe : Sustainable Transport: Freiburg, Karlsruhe
Integrated Transport: Grenoble : Integrated Transport: Grenoble
Integrated Transit: Zürich : Integrated Transit: Zürich
Restraining Traffic: Singapore, Oslo, London : Restraining Traffic: Singapore, Oslo, London
New Urbanism in US & Europe : New Urbanism in US & Europe Return to Traditional Built Forms
Higher Densities (How Dense?)
UK: Urban Task Force
Urban Renaissance: UK Examples
Cultural/Sport Regeneration
European Examples: Denser
New Urbanism: Mountain View, CA/Kentlands, MD : New Urbanism: Mountain View, CA/Kentlands, MD
New Urbanism in Britain: Poundbury : New Urbanism in Britain: Poundbury
Urban Task Force Principles: Linked Neighbourhoods : Urban Task Force Principles: Linked Neighbourhoods
Urban Task Force: Mixed Use : Urban Task Force: Mixed Use
Urban Renaissance: Birmingham : Urban Renaissance: Birmingham
Urban Renaissance UK: New East Manchester : Urban Renaissance UK: New East Manchester
Urban Renaissance UK: Glasgow, Crown Street : Urban Renaissance UK: Glasgow, Crown Street
Urban Renaissance Europe: Amsterdam, Java Island : Urban Renaissance Europe: Amsterdam, Java Island
Urban Renaissance: The Critical Question : Urban Renaissance: The Critical Question Outstanding successes…but…
Geared to Yuppies/Dinkies
The argument: UK, 80% new households are one-person!
But: they want space too
And: cities are for families too!
So: bring the families back
What kind of housing?
Densities compared : Densities compared Source: Rudlin and Falk, Building the 21st century Home
Planning for Sustainable Growth : Planning for Sustainable Growth Paris: Restructuring the City
Role of Transportation: crucial
Amsterdam, Tokyo: New-Style Edge Cities
London: Docklands/Thames Gateway
USA (Calthorpe) /UK (Breheny/ Rookwood): Sustainable Transport Corridors
UK: Sustainable Communities Strategy 2003
Regional Metros: Stockholm, Copenhagen : Regional Metros: Stockholm, Copenhagen
Paris Orbitale: Creating a New CBD : Paris Orbitale: Creating a New CBD
Paris: Orbitale: Creating a new CBD : Paris: Orbitale: Creating a new CBD
Edge City, European Style: Amsterdam Zuidas : Edge City, European Style: Amsterdam Zuidas
Docklands/Thames Gateway Reversing London’s Growth : Docklands/Thames Gateway Reversing London’s Growth
Thames Gateway Targets : Thames Gateway Targets
New Urbanism, British Style: Greenwich Peninsula : New Urbanism, British Style: Greenwich Peninsula
European Mega-City-Regions : European Mega-City-Regions
Ideal Urban Forms: UK, USA : Ideal Urban Forms: UK, USA
Building Sustainable City Clusters : Building Sustainable City Clusters
UK: Sustainable City Clusters : UK: Sustainable City Clusters
Thames Gateway: Stratford 1999, 2012 : Thames Gateway: Stratford 1999, 2012
Eastern Quarry to Ebbsfleet Valley : Eastern Quarry to Ebbsfleet Valley
So, in Conclusion… : So, in Conclusion… Has been Done!
Is being Done!
Can be Done!
Needs: Money, Powers, Imagination, Determination!
Money: public and private: how combine?
Powers: Special Purpose Vehicles: UDCs, URCs
Learn from Best Practice