Spohrer

Service Science, Management, and Engineering (SSME): A Next Frontier in Education,Employment, Innovation, andEconomic Growth : Service Science, Management, and Engineering (SSME): A Next Frontier in Education, Employment, Innovation, and Economic Growth Dr. Jim Spohrer Director, Services Research IBM Almaden Research Center, San Jose, CA spohrer@us.ibm.com Title slide


Innovation sustains skilled employment and exports : Innovation sustains skilled employment and exports Sustainable growth depends on innovation via regional government, industry, academic collaboration.


What is SSME? : What is SSME? Inherently multi-disciplinary way of studying how value is created in services How is service value created, captured, and re-invested to create more value (positive feedback loop) Service systems are complex systems of value coproduction interactions Data andamp; Information Value Knowledge Slide based on that of Ravi Nemana, UC Berkeley SSME Director


Communications of the ACM, July 2006 : Communications of the ACM, July 2006


Slide5 : http://www.ibm.com/university/ssme


IBM Definition of Service: The application of Business & IT competences for the benefit of clients and society : IBM Definition of Service: The application of Business andamp; IT competences for the benefit of clients and society Strategic Outsourcing andamp; IT Hardware, Software andamp; Services Application Management Business Transformation Outsourcing Business Consulting Services andamp; Project-based Systems Integration 2003: 50 of 3000 of 320,000 2006: 550 of 3200 of 340,000 Indian workforce has gone from 9,000 to 43,000 in just two and a half years.


2007 Services Area Strategies : 2007 Services Area Strategies 1. Business Value 2. Services Software Engineering 3. Services Management and Products 5. Services Information 4. Services Optimization SSME – Service Science, Management and Engineering


Today’s talk : Today’s talk Part I: Context Part II: Progress Part III: Science


What is SSME, really? : What is SSME, really? An urgent 'call to action' To become more systematic about innovation in services Complements product and process innovation methods To develop 'a science of service' that studies service systems A proposed academic discipline Draws on many existing disciplines If the study of service systems is legitimate in engineering, business, social sciences, and information schools – that will be good progress However, integration into a new specialty (looking for our Einstein) is ultimate goal A proposed research area Service systems are designed (computer systems) Service systems evolve (linguistic and social systems) Service systems have scale-emergent properties (economic systems)


Why is SSME so important? : Top Ten Nations by Labor Force Size (about 50% of world labor in just 10 nations) A = Agriculture, G = Goods, S = Services andgt;50% (S) services, andgt;33% (S) services 2004 2004 United States The largest labor force migration in human history is underway, driven by global communications, business and technology growth, urbanization and low cost labor. (A) Agriculture: Value from harvesting nature (G) Goods: Value from making products (S) Services: Value from enhancing the capabilities of things (customizing, distributing, etc.) and interactions between things Because the world is a giant service system. Why is SSME so important?


200 Years: People joining to make bigger organizations : 200 Years: People joining to make bigger organizations Effects of Agriculture, Colonial Expansion andamp; Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization andamp; Politics, Education, Healthcare andamp; Information Technologies, etc. The Visible Hand: The Managerial Revolution in American Business by Alfred Dupont Chandler Rise of the modern managerial firm


12B years of small things interacting to make bigger things : 12B years of small things interacting to make bigger things Global Brain: The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century by Howard Bloom


Progression of phenomena: Emergence of Complex Systems : Progression of phenomena: Emergence of Complex Systems Physical Systems Physics Chemical Systems Chemistry Biological Systems Biology Human Systems Anthropology Service Systems Service Science People with World Models Culture Language Tools Trust Organizations And Institutions Value Coproduction (Service)


What economic variables matter in service systems? : What economic variables matter in service systems? Evolution of Trust: Human beings are the only species in nature to have developed an elaborate division of labor between strangers. Even something as simple as buying a shirt depends on an astonishing web of interaction and organization that spans the world. But unlike that other uniquely human attribute, language, our ability to cooperate with strangers did not evolve gradually through our prehistory. Only 10,000 years ago--a blink of an eye in evolutionary time--humans hunted in bands, were intensely suspicious of strangers, and fought those whom they could not flee. Yet since the dawn of agriculture we have refined the division of labor to the point where, today, we live and work amid strangers and depend upon millions more. Every time we travel by rail or air we entrust our lives to individuals we do not know. What institutions have made this possible? The Company of Strangers : A Natural History of Economic Life by Paul Seabright


How did the service economy come to be? : How did the service economy come to be? Estimations based on Porat, M. (1977) Info Economy: Definitions and Measurement Estimated world (pre-1800) and then U.S. Labor Percentages by Sector The Pursuit of Organizational Intelligence, by James G. March Exploitation vs exploration The Origin of Wealth by Eric D. Beinhocker


“Service science is just ___________” : 'Service science is just ___________' OR/IE MS CS/AI Multiagent Systems Economics andamp; Law Game Theory MIS Anthropology andamp; Psychology Organization Theory Service System


Culture and Dancing Elephants : Culture and Dancing Elephants What I learned at IBM is that culture isn’t part of the game. It is the game. - Louis V. Gerstner, 'Who says elephants can’t dance' Actually, the cultural change required for ITIL success is often a much greater challenge than the implementation of any supporting technologies. Brian Johnson, CIO News Headlines Oct. 1, 2006 ITIL = IT Infrastructure Library, related to ISO 20000 Standard for IT Service Management We strongly believe that development of an effective services science curriculum in Chinese universities will have a direct impact on China's economic growth - Sam Palmisano, quoted Infoweek, Nov 14, 2006


How to invest to make systematic improvements?(improvement = year-over-year increase in capabilities) : How to invest to make systematic improvements? (improvement = year-over-year increase in capabilities) Service System 1. People (division of labor, multi-tasking) 2. Technology 3. Internal and External Service Systems Connected by Value Propositions 4. Shared Information (language, laws, measures) Computational System Shrink Transistors People do more, high value win-win actions


What types of service systems would we like to improve?(improve = year over year increase in capabilities) : What types of service systems would we like to improve? (improve = year over year increase in capabilities) People Families Businesses Cities Nations Hospitals Universities Call Centers Data Centers And many more…


People : People 'All the information workers observed experienced a high level of fragmentation in the execution of their activities. People averaged about three minutes on a task and about two minutes on any electronic device or paper document before switching tasks.' Gloria Mark and Victor M. Gonzalez, authors of 'Research on Multi-tasking in the Workplace'


Families : Families 'The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the State'. Article 16(3) of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights 'Developing a Family Mission Statement' Stephen R. Covey, author of The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Families 'In the agricultural age, work-life-and-family blended seamlessly.' IBM GIO 1.0


Businesses : Businesses '…of the 100 entities with the largest Gross National Product (GNP), about half were multi-national corporations (MNCs)… The MNCs do not exist on traditional maps.' Alfred Chandler and Bruce Mazlish, authors of Leviathans 'The corporation has evolved constantly during its long history. The MNC of the late twentieth century … were very different from the great trading enterprises of the 1700s. The type of business organization that is now emerging -- the globally integrated enterprise -- marks just as big a leap. ' Sam Palmisano, CEO IBM in Foreign Affairs


Cities : Cities 'Cities are the defining artifacts of civilisation. All the achievements and failings of humanity are here… We shape the city, and then it shapes us. Today, almost half the global population lives in cities.' John Reader, author of Cities IBM Releases ``IBM and the Future of our Cities'' Podcast IBM Press Release 2005


Nations : Nations 'Understanding economic change including everything from the rise of the Western world to the demise of the Soviet Union requires that we cast a net much broader than purely economic change because it is a result of changes in (1) the quantity and quality of human beings; (2) in the stock of human knowledge particularly as applied to human command over nature; and (3) the institutional framework that defines the deliberate incentive structure of a society.' Douglass C. North, author of Understanding the Process of Economic Change


Hospitals : Hospitals 'Modern medicine is one of those incredible works of reason: an elaborate system of specialized knowledge, technical procedures, and rules of behavior.' Paul Starr, author of The Social Transformation of American Medicine


Universities : Universities 'The contemporary American university is in fact a knowledge conglomerate in its extensive activities, and this role is costly to sustain.' Roger L. Geiger, author of Knowledge and Money: Research Universities and the Paradox of the Marketplace


Call Centers : Call Centers 'Call Centers For Dummies helps put a value on customer relations efforts undertaken in call centers and helps managers implement new strategies for continual improvement of customer service.' Réal Bergevin, author of Call Centers For Dummies


Data Centers : Data Centers 'All data centers are unique, but they all share the same mission: to protect your company’s valuable information.' Douglas Alger, author of Build the Best Data Center Facility for Your Business


Some Types of Service Systems : Some Types of Service Systems People Families Businesses Cities Nations Hospitals Universities Call Centers Data Centers Professional Associations Disciplinary Associations Government Agencies PACs NGOs Non-Profits Foundations On-line Communities, MMORPGs, Virtual Worlds


Can there really be a science of service? : Can there really be a science of service? 'Wherever there are phenomena, there can be a science to describe and explain those phenomena. Thus, the simplest (and correct) answer to 'What is botany?' is, 'Botany is the study of plants.' And zoology is the study of animals, astronomy the study of stars, and so on. Phenomena breed sciences.' - Newell, A., Perlis, A. andamp; Simon, H. A. (1967). Computer Science, Science, 157, 1373-1374.


Possible Objections… to Computer Science : Possible Objections… to Computer Science Only natural phenomena breed sciences The term 'computer' is not well defined Computer Science is the study of algorithms, not computers Computers are instruments, not phenomena Computer Science is a branch of another science Computers belong to engineering, not science - Newell, Perlis, andamp; Simon (1967)


Possible Objections… to Service Science : Possible Objections… to Service Science Only natural phenomena breed sciences The term 'service' is not well defined Service Science is the study of work, not services Services are performances, not phenomena Service Science is a branch of another science Services belong to engineering (or management), not science - with apologies to Newell, Perlis, andamp; Simon (1967)


What makes SSME hard is that it is multidisciplinary… : What makes SSME hard is that it is multidisciplinary… Services depend critically on people, technology, organizations, and co-creation of value People work together and with technology and with organizations to provide value for clients Shared information helps coordinate activities – language, laws, measures, models, etc. So a service system is a complex socio-techno-economic system Growth requires innovation that combines people, technology, organizations, value, shared information, clients A service system is a value coproduction configuration of people, technology, internal and external service systems connected by value propositions, and shared information Services systems are both designed (Artificial) and shaped by evolutionary forces (Natural) Science andamp; Engineering Business andamp; Management Social andamp; Cognitive Sciences Economics andamp; Markets Business Innovation Technology Innovation Social Innovation Demand Innovation


Herbert A. Simon – My vote for first service scientist : Herbert A. Simon – My vote for first service scientist http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herbert_Simon 'Herbert Simon (1916-2001), in the course of a long and distinguished career in the social and behavioral sciences, made lasting contributions to many disciplines, including economics, psychology, computer science, and artificial intelligence. In 1978 he was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics for his research into the decision-making process within economic organizations. His well-known book The Sciences of the Artificial addresses the implications of the decision-making and problem-solving processes for the social sciences. ' Models of a Man : Essays in Memory of Herbert A. Simon by Mie Augier (Editor), James G. March (Editor) The Sciences of the Artificial by Herbert A. Simon


Complexity 1: So many types of service jobs/industries : Complexity 1: So many types of service jobs/industries enable develop enable transform design operate andamp; maintain create utilize Industrial services Information services Business services Consumer services Non-market services


Complexity 2: So many academic disciplines… : Complexity 2: So many academic disciplines… People Business Products andamp; Nature Information Schools of Science andamp; Engineering Information Schools Schools of Business Management Schools of Social Science


Complexity 2b: For example, anthropology is, well… : Complexity 2b: For example, anthropology is, well… People Business Products andamp; Nature Information Archeology (material artifacts andamp; configurations) Linguistic Anthropology (language as social action) Cultural Anthropology (link social organization, including families, to cultural models and embodiments) Physical Anthropology (human biology andamp; cultural practices)


Complexity 3: So many definitions of service… : Complexity 3: So many definitions of service… People Technology Information External Internal Language, laws, metrics, standards, culture, etc. Connected by Value Propositions Model as complex systems Service: The application of competence for the benefit of another Service System: A value coproduction configuration of people, technology, internal and external service systems, and shared information


Complexity 4: No unique, fundamental problems… : Complexity 4: No unique, fundamental problems… People Technology Information External Internal Language, laws, metrics, standards, culture, etc. Connected by Value Propositions Model as complex systems What are the origins, types, and evolutionary patterns of service systems? How are service systems similar to/different from other types of complex systems? Are service systems the most complex type of complex system? How to invest? How are competences transferred from one service system to another?


SSME is an emerging multidiscipline (frontier field) : SSME is an emerging multidiscipline (frontier field) Slide by Jean Paul Jacob


Slide41 : More T-shaped People to work in, study, and innovate service systems Social Science (People) Management (Business) Engineering (Technology) Slide by Jean Paul Jacob


Part I: Context… : Part I: Context… All national economies are shifting to services – service systems are an important type of complex system major industrialized nations are andgt;75% services, developing nations are close behind – growth increasingly depends on service innovation at multiple scales - person, family, city, firm, nation credit cards are a simple example of service innovation, requiring integrated business, technology, and social-organizational change to be successful drivers: outsourcing, globalization, internet, self-service - Wipro, IBM, EDS, eBay, Amazon, Google New workforce skills are needed - to better study, manage, and engineer service systems study benefits from a combination of business, organization, technology skills – soft skills enhance hard skills – more organizational transparency and data sharing by industry would help greatly new profession (like service scientist) needed, and new tool (service system ecology simulator) Educational system is slowly shifting toward services service management, operations, marketing, and engineering courses and programs exist - study of complex systems seeks to integrate Research universities should increase number of grant proposals focused on service systems new multidiscipline (like SSME) needed, to integrate and break down silos – industry must hire them National systems are slowly shifting policy towards service innovation bootstrapping investment in research and education through targeted programs focusing attention on intellectual property protection for service innovation new innovation policy and metrics needed (government role in creating historical data sets)


Part II: Progress (2004-2006) : Part II: Progress (2004-2006) 'The SSME Palisades event was the biggest and most diverse gathering ever in support of service education.' – Roland Rust (Oct. 15, 2006)


Progress by country/region : Progress by country/region 1. Germany, Japan 2. Finland, EU 3. China, Ireland 4. United States, UK 5. India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, and others


Communications of the ACM, July 2006 : Communications of the ACM, July 2006


Slide46 :


Textbooks : Textbooks Berry (1999) Chase, Jacobs, Aquilano Davis Fisk, Grove, andamp; John (2000) Fitzsimmons andamp; Fitzsimmons (2001) Grönroos (2000) Hoffman andamp; Bateson (2002) Lovelock andamp; Wright  (2001) Sampson (2000) Teboul (2006) Zeithaml andamp; Bitner (2003) Service Management: Operations, Strategy, and Information Technologies by James Fitzsimmons and Mona Fitzsimmons


Journal and Conference : Journal and Conference


Slide49 :


On what foundational logic, could we build a science of service? : On what foundational logic, could we build a science of service? Defines service as the application of competencies for the benefit of another entity and sees mutual service provision, rather than the exchange of goods, as the foundational logic This new paradigm is service-oriented, customer-oriented, relationship-focused, and knowledge-based The Service-Dominant Logic of Marketing: Dialog, Debate, and Directions by Robert F. Lusch and Stephen L. Vargo


On what theory of economics, could we build a science of service? : On what theory of economics, could we build a science of service? Firms: Viewed as historically situated combiners of heterogeneous and imperfectly mobile resources under conditions of imperfect and costly to obtain information, towards the primary objective of superior financial performance. Resources: Viewed as tangible and intangible entities available to the firm that enable it to produce efficiently and/or effectively a market offering that has value for some market segment(s). A General Theory of Competition : Resources, Competences, Productivity, Economic Growth (Marketing for a New Century) by Shelby D. (Dean) Hunt


How do new professions arise? : How do new professions arise? In The System of Professions Andrew Abbott explores central questions about the role of professions in modern life: Why should there be occupational groups controlling expert knowledge? Where and why did groups such as law and medicine achieve their power? Will professionalism spread throughout the occupational world? While most inquiries in this field study one profession at a time, Abbott here considers the system of professions as a whole. Through comparative and historical study of the professions in nineteenth- and twentieth-century England, France, and America, Abbott builds a general theory of how and why professionals evolve. The System of Professions: An Essay on the Division of Expert Labor by Andrew Abbott


How do new professions and new disciplines coevolve with government institutions? : How do new professions and new disciplines coevolve with government institutions? Emergence of German dye industry, German mid-19th Century Emergence of chemistry as an academic discipline Emergence of patent protection in the new area of chemical processes and formula Emergence of new relationships connecting firms, academic institutions, government agencies, and clients Demonstrates needed coevolution of firms, technology, and national institutions Took England and US over 70 years to catch up!!! Knowledge and Competitive Advantage : The Coevolution of Firms, Technology, and National Institutions by Johann Peter Murmann


How does the service economy and the innovation economy relate? : How does the service economy and the innovation economy relate? '… modern economies are both service economies and economies of innovation. Paradoxically, they are not regarded as economies of innovation in services, that is as economies in which service firms' innovation efforts are proportional to their contribution from the major economic aggregates. It is as if service and innovation were two parallel universes that coexist in blissful ignorance of each other.' Gallouj, F. (2002). Innovation in the Service Economy: The New Wealth of Nations. Cheltenham UK: Edward Elgar. Productivity, Innovation and Knowledge in Services by Jean Gadrey and Faiz Gallouj


Berkeley SSME Certificate Program : Berkeley SSME Certificate Program http://ssme.berkeley.edu/


Slide56 : NCSU SSME Curriculum for MBA http://www.mgt.ncsu.edu/news/2006/mba_ssme.php


Service Science at ASU : Service Science at ASU http://wpcarey.asu.edu/csl/


SSME: Growing Body of Knowledge about Service : SSME: Growing Body of Knowledge about Service Economics and Social Science Management Engineering Smith 100% 75% 50% 25% Marx Clark Percentage of labor force in service sector: US (blue) and World (green) Argyris Glushko Alter Bryson et al Milgrom andamp; Roberts Jaikumar andamp; Bohn March andamp; Simon Lusch andamp; Vargo Berry (1999), Teboul (2006) Fisk, Grove, andamp; John (2000) .Davis Fitzsimmons andamp; Fitzsimmons (2001) Grönroos (2000), Sampson (2000) Hoffman andamp; Bateson (2002) Lovelock andamp; Wright  (2001) Zeithaml andamp; Bitner (2003) Hesket, Sasser, andamp; Hart, Rust, Ramirez Pine andamp; Gilmore, Schneider, Chase Murmann, Seabright, Latour, Sen Cohen andamp; Zysman, Triplett andamp; Bosworth, Abbott, Baumol, Hill, Gadrey andamp; Gallouj Sterman Ganz, Weinhardt, Rouse Tiene andamp; Berg, Carley Herzenberg, Alicandamp;Wial Taylor Deming Bastiat


Slide59 : http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/18/business/18services.html


Part III: Science(2007-2009) : Part III: Science(2007-2009) 'People-Oriented, Services-Intensive, Market-Facing Complex Systems – complex systems and services – are very similar areas around which we are framing the very complicated problems of business and societal systems that we are trying to understand.' – Irving Wladawsky-Berger (Oct. 9, 2006)


The challenge – need shared vocabulary and understanding of what a service system is – a type of complex adaptive system : The challenge – need shared vocabulary and understanding of what a service system is – a type of complex adaptive system Operations Research and Industrial Engineering More realistic models of people Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, Information Systems Software and systems that adaptively/autonomously change with business strategy Economics and Business Strategy, Service Management andamp; Operations Better models of scaling and innovation to improve economic efficiency Law and Political Economy Better models of social innovation – in what way is passing a law innovation Complex Systems and Systems Engineering Better model of robustness and fragility of service systems (sustainability) Service systems are value coproduction configurations of people, technology, internal and external service systems connected by value propositions, and shared information (language, laws, measures, models, etc.) Examples: People, families, cities, businesses, nations, global economy, etc.


What is science? : What is science? Data – the language of nature (empirical framework) Model – measurable experiential constructs and relationships (theoretical framework) Analytics – fit data to model, explain variance (analytical framework) Take Action – interact with world and iterate (engineering and design frameworks) Can we create CAD (Computer Aided Design) tools for service systems? Can we create Service System Ecology Simulators to glimpse evolutionary trajectories?


How do service systems evolve? : How do service systems evolve?


Under what conditions do value propositions exist between service systems to justify service-for-service exchanges? : Under what conditions do value propositions exist between service systems to justify service-for-service exchanges? Case 1 – complementary superior performance Costs A = 1 4, B = 3 2 Self Service A: 10 + 40 = 50 B: 30 + 20 = 50 Over produce best by one and exchange A: 11 + 36 = 47 B: 27 + 22 = 49 Case 2 – one with strictly superior performance, namely A Costs A = 1 2, B = 4 3 Self Service A: 10 + 20 = 30 B: 40 + 30 = 70 Over produce best by one and exchange A: 11 + 18 = 29 B: 36 + 33 = 69 Assume service system A and B (imagine two people, family-clans, cities, nations, or businesses) each produce two same kinds of service, each have demand for ten performances of the services each day, and each have different costs of producing the services for self-service consumption Surprisingly, in Case 2, it still makes sense to exchange service for service as well! Of course, this ignores transaction costs associated with the exchange… What happens when the cost decreases with experience/learning/innovations? What about trading the skill to perform a service, rather than simply performances?


Under what conditions are compliance laws innovative in a service system of selfish optimizers? : Under what conditions are compliance laws innovative in a service system of selfish optimizers? Pigou’s Example A population of commuters must drive from point A to point B. There are two roads. The first road always takes one hour. The second road takes time proportional to the amount of traffic (all = 1). If everyone takes the second road, the time is one hour. All drivers take the second road, it is never worse than one hour, and maybe better. Braess’s Paradox Two roads with composed of two parts. First road has constant one hour plus one hour max if congested. Second road has one hour max if congested plus one hour. Traffic splits so everyone gets from point A to point B in 90 minutes. However, by adding a zero cost interchange connecting the two midpoints, now everyone takes the two connected congested routes, and now every takes 120 minutes! A B C(x) = 1 C(x) = x A law that mandates odd and even license plates take different routes on different days, if backed up with sampling and tickets/fines, could yield better results.


Law and Economics : Law and Economics Problem: Almost any business strategy or societal policy change will be viewed negatively by some stakeholder Pareto Efficiency Can anyone be improved, without making someone else worse off? Kaldor-Hicks Efficiency Can anyone be improved, such that anyone made worse off can be adequately compensated for their lose?


Spohrer-Engelbart Cycle of Service System Evolution(Augmentation Systems: Bootstrapping Capability Infrastructure via Coevolution of Human System and Tool System) : Spohrer-Engelbart Cycle of Service System Evolution (Augmentation Systems: Bootstrapping Capability Infrastructure via Coevolution of Human System and Tool System) Population Growth (Atomic Service Systems, Self Service, Multitasking) Assume growing population of service systems in an environment Each service system is multitasking two services based on two underlying capabilities or competences Organization Growth (Outsource Service, Higher-Level Multitasking) Advantage of pairs forming to trade, or forming an organization Coase’s Law and Kaldor-Hicks Efficiency enabled within organization Thus, a growing populations of multitasking service systems gives rise to increasingly specialized service systems, professions, markets and organizations Technology Growth (Improvement, Free Time, Rise of New Goals, Multitasking) Over time learning curves and efficiency leads to better competencies Learning curves improve specialization and technologies used, until it is cost effective to form new service systems that provide the technology Free time leads to new goals, competences, and more multi-tasking As technology capability improves some service systems shift back to self service – multitasking more and using high capability technology Infrastructure Growth (Fairness, New Environment, New Multitasking Goals) If the service and technology become universally needed, the technology may be embedded into the environment as part of a government action to establish a new utility or national infrastructure (institution formation) to ensure fairness of access Improved environment fosters population growth


If time permits… : If time permits… Call centers as exemplar service systems Balance productivity and quality Balance compliance and innovation Service innovation, beyond cost cutting (e.g., global sourcing, automation) How to grow when markets don’t Blue ocean strategies


What would service scientists actually do? : What would service scientists actually do? Service scientist own the body of knowledge around service system problem solving Service scientists identify a service system that needs improvement Service scientists identify the stakeholders their concerns and perceived opportunities Service scientists envision augmentations (additional new service systems) or reconfigurations (of old service systems components) that best address all problems and opportunities Identify year-over-year improvement trajectories Identify incentives to change (ROI, leadership, laws)


Example: Are there “scale laws” of service innovation – year-over-year compounding effects? : Example: Are there 'scale laws' of service innovation – year-over-year compounding effects? Problems Input: Student quality Process: Faculty motivation Output: Industry fit Augmentations A: -20% eLearning certification B. +10% Faculty interest tuning C. +10% On-the-job skills tuning Year 1: 20% Year 2: 20% Year 3: 20% Year N: 20% . . . . . . . . After a decade the course may look quite different Service systems are learning systems: productivity, quality, etc.


Quadruple Loop Learning of Service Systems : Quadruple Loop Learning of Service Systems Invest Relationships Goals Plans Action Versatility (World Model andamp; Action Repertoire) Sustainability (Ecology) Effectiveness (Exploration) Efficiency (Exploitation) Expectation (Unmet?) Service actions have quantitative, qualitative, and serendipity components. (Measurable experiential constructs and their relationships) 1 2 3 4


How will we know when we have succeeded? : How will we know when we have succeeded? A textbook that is used in service science and complex systems courses around the world Data from variety of service systems (e.g., call center), models, analytics, action research plans and case studies of service systems Payoff in business and societal results from systematic service innovations Productivity, quality, compliance, innovation, and learning curves Better measurement systems, models of business-clients-competitors, and theory of value proposition evolution between service systems, theory of investment, entrepreneurship, and institution formation Perhaps even a Moore’s like law or investment road map for predictable service system capability growth We’ve even had a few people starting to propose some!


One last service system surprise… R&D service sector… : One last service system surprise… Randamp;D service sector… Baumol and Oulton – Progessive and symptotically stagnant sectors of economies Circa 1960: Imagine an economy with two sectors (manufacturing and services). Technology for labor substitutions increase productivity at a steady pace in the 'progressive' sector, and the 'stagnant' or 'asymptotically stagnant' sector absorbs the labor from the other. Circa 2002: Now imagine that the asymptotically stagnant sector is Randamp;D (primus inter parus). Oulton (Bank of England) suggests that Randamp;D which produces information is not a final result, but is actually input to the progressive sector. So as long as Randamp;D productivity gains are slightly positive, the economy as a whole does not stagnate! Let, yi = the output of sector I, Li = the primary input quantity used by sector I, where L1 + L2 = L (constant), Pi = the price of the sector’s output, Gi = the growth rate of the productivity of the primary input used directly by sector I (with 0 andlt; G1 andlt; G2, so that sector 1 is the relatively stagnant sector, w primary input price Y1 = F1(L1, t), Y2 = F2(y1, L2, t) Surprise: Data from Fano: In US, between 1921 and 1938 industrial research personnel rose by 300%. Laboratories rose from fewer than 300 in 1920 to over 1600 in 1931, and more than 2,200 in 1938. Randamp;D grew most rapidly in US during the time centered around the great depression!


REST IS BACKUP : REST IS BACKUP Contact Jim Spohrer ( spohrer@us.ibm.com ) Paul Maglio ( maglio@us.ibm.com ) Wendy Murphy ( wendym@us.ibm.com )