Wong

From Global to Local: Spatial Interaction and Infectious Diseases Dispersion : 

From Global to Local: Spatial Interaction and Infectious Diseases Dispersion David Wong Professor of Geography Chair Earth Systems andamp; GeoInformation Sciences With contributions from Dr. Catherine Dibble (U. Maryland-College Park) Karen Owen (GMU – Graduate Student) Min Li (GMU – Graduate Student)

Motivation: 

Motivation Theme of the Conference: Avian Flu This presentation - broader Spreading of Infectious Diseases from human to human through direct or indirect contacts Worry about Avian Flu because

Motivation: 

Motivation Worry about Avian Flu because Human contraction (more likely in Asia) Where?

Slide4: 

Dispersion (around sources): 

Dispersion (around sources)

Population Density: 

Population Density U.S

Population Density: 

Population Density Population Density – interaction - risk Selected Places: Hong Kong: 6660/sq km Macau: 16068 Taiwan: 714 Canada: 3.64 U.S.: 32.6 NY metro: 1702/sq ml = 665/sq km Manhattan: 66940 = 26148/sq km

Spreading of Avian Flu: 

Spreading of Avian Flu ?

Human-bird Interaction in N.A.: 

Human-bird Interaction in N.A.

Spreading of Avian Flu: 

Spreading of Avian Flu ?

International Migration: 

International Migration Iij – interaction between locations i and j dij – distance between I and j β – distance decay parameter How much interaction will respond to a change in distance? Pi, Pj – characteristics of origin i and destination j K – scaling factor Migration? or Mobility Geographical Literature on Migration: Gravity Models or Spatial Interaction Models

Slide12: 

1990 Passenger Trips: 

1990 Passenger Trips

1995 Passenger Trips: 

1995 Passenger Trips

2000 Passenger Trips: 

2000 Passenger Trips

2005 Passenger Trips: 

2005 Passenger Trips

Slide17: 

First 3 Weeks of 1918 Flu Pandemic: 

First 3 Weeks of 1918 Flu Pandemic Arrived via ports Boston New York Spread to key cities Spread beyond cities Early warning helps Difficult in 1918 Almost real-time now (Crosby, Alfred (1989) America’s Forgotten Pandemic: The Influenza of 1918)

Local Interaction/Dispersion: 

Local Interaction/Dispersion Domestic Air Travel 1980: 249,158,581 / 226M = 1.09 1990: 428,769,370 / 248M = 1.72 2000: 616,379,536 / 281M = 2.19 2005: 674,025,059 / 295M = 2.28

MIDAS University of MarylandGeoGraph Epidemic Models: 

MIDAS University of Maryland GeoGraph Epidemic Models Colored bars are cities People travel between cities, spreading the disease Bar charts show health status: Green – healthy Pink – infected Red – infectious White – recovered (immune) Gray – dead Links are roads and airline routes (Dibble and Feldman (2004) jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/7/1/7.html)

University of Maryland MIDAS Research: 

University of Maryland MIDAS Research Which cities are at greatest risk? How should limited resources for interventions be allocated geographically in order to protect the most people? Which airline flights, train routes, or highways should be monitored or blocked to reduce risks? (Dibble and Feldman (2004) jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/7/1/7.html)

Targeting Cities and Transportation Routes: 

Targeting Cities and Transportation Routes (Dibble and Feldman (2004) jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/7/1/7.html)

Population by Counties: 

Population by Counties

Density by Counties: 

Density by Counties

Environmental Conditions(Local “Preventive Measures”): 

Environmental Conditions (Local 'Preventive Measures')

Spitting in …: 

Spitting in …

(AP) Avril Lavigne has agreed that spitting at the paparazzi is probably not a good thing to do : 

(AP) Avril Lavigne has agreed that spitting at the paparazzi is probably not a good thing to do

Sociology of Spitting & …: 

Sociology of Spitting andamp; … American Habit?

Personal Hygiene: 

Personal Hygiene

Slide30: 

Public Health Awareness: 

Public Health Awareness

Conclusion: 

Conclusion If gov’t has to take action – already epidemics Methods to control epidemics 'Common sense' personal hygiene practice Higher level of consciousness (education) on spreading of diseases – but not be obsessed or phobia Smarter design of structure may help