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Edit Comment Close Premium member Presentation Transcript March 2006: March 2006 “Projecting When Business Cycles Will Change” Presented By: The Institute for Trend Research Brian Beaulieu brian@ecotrends.org www.ecotrends.org US Industrial Production Index Forecast Through December 2008 Annual Average Index: US Industrial Production Index Forecast Through December 2008 Annual Average Index Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTM Here today Tipping Points- Hard Landing – 2009-2010 Debt Interest Rates Demographics Inflation Inventories China – WTO Elections Oil Home Prices US Industrial Production to Textiles Production Annual Average Indices: US Industrial Production to Textiles Production Annual Average Indices US Industrial Production to Oil & Gas Extraction Production Annual Data Trends: US Industrial Production to Oil & Gas Extraction Production Annual Data TrendsExports by Nation Percentage of Total World Exports of Goods and Services: Exports by Nation Percentage of Total World Exports of Goods and Services Source: IMF 10.1 5.9 4.8 4.7 3.8 3.4 9.4 5.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 US Germany China Japan France UK Italy Canada 0 2 4 6 8 10 12Slide8: China Today and Tomorrow (Aka The Dirty Dozen) Social Costs vs. Infrastructure Skilled Labor Raw Materials $5 fresh capital to $1 incremental output Relational Government FDI – SARS – No Guarantees Banking System Negative Demographics Floating the Yuan Global Competitiveness WTO EU denied China Market Status Pollution 7 of the 10 most polluted cities Employment – Civilian Labor Force Annual Data Trend: Employment – Civilian Labor Force Annual Data TrendGOODS & SERVICES AS A PERCENT OF GDP (real) w/o structures: GOODS & SERVICES AS A PERCENT OF GDP (real) w/o structures Example: Revenue 12MMT: Example: Revenue 12MMT Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 1.47 1.51 1.65 1.75 1.76 1.64 1.71 1.74 1.54 1.44 1.24 1.26 1.74 12MMT: 3MMT = 4.63 3MMT = 5.14 3MMT = 4.98 3MMT = 4.22 3MMT = 3.95 3MMT = 4.24 12MMT = 17.54 12MMT = 18.54 12MMT = 18.70 12MMT = 18.97 8.2%RATE-OF-CHANGE : ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 2/06 ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 2/05 = 1/12 3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 2/06 3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 2/05 = 3/12 = 12/12 ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 2/06 ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 2/05 RATE-OF-CHANGE US Total Industrial Production 12/12 Rate-of-Change: US Total Industrial Production 12/12 Rate-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMCompany L to US Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Company L to US Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Canadian Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Canadian Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Japan Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Japan Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMUS Industrial Production to China Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to China Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeChina Cutting Machine Tools to China Industrial Production Index 12/12 Rates-of-Change: China Cutting Machine Tools to China Industrial Production Index 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Asia Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Asia Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeIndia Industrial Production Index to India Machinery & Equipment excluding Transport Production Index Rates-of-Change: India Industrial Production Index to India Machinery & Equipment excluding Transport Production Index Rates-of-ChangeUS to Europe Industrial Production Annual Average Data Trends: US to Europe Industrial Production Annual Average Data Trends Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMIndicator Sequence: Indicator SequenceFour Phases: Four PhasesSlide24: Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Start to phase out marginal opportunities 2. Build inventories in the system 3. Continue placing capital equipment orders 4. Hire "top" people 5. Implement training programs 6. Add sales staff 7. Introduce new product lines 8. Begin advertising and sales promotions 9. Implement plans for facilities' expansion 10. Update standard costs Phase Late A - Recovery: Slide25: Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Accelerate training 2. Continue to build inventory 3. Increase prices 4. Find the answers to “what next” 5. Consider outside manufacturing sources if internal resources becoming tight 6. Check the process flow for possible future bottlenecks 7. Open distribution centers 8. Use improved cash flow for corporate governance. Phase Early B - Growth: Slide26: Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Stay in stock 2. Penetrate new OEM accounts 3. Develop plan for lower activity in traditional, mature markets 4. Begin missionary efforts into new markets 5. Consider taking on subcontract work if the backside of the cycle looks recessionary 6. Freeze all expansion plans in current core business units 7. Spin off undesirable operations 8. Stay realistic – beware linear budgets 9. Consider selling the business in a climate of maximum “goodwill” Phase Late B Early C - Prosperity: Slide27: Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Begin work force reductions 2. Reduce advertising 3. Cut training 4. Weed out inferior products 5. Reduce inventories 6. Avoid long-term purchase commitments – late in the price cycle 7. Set budget reduction goals by dept. 8. Encourage distributors to decrease inventory 9. Concentrate on cash and the balance sheet 10. De-Emphasize commodity products/services in anticipation of diminishing margins Phase Late C - Warning: US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production Annual Data Trends: US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production Annual Data TrendsUS Industrial Production to Paper & Products Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Paper & Products Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeGeneral Purpose Machinery Production to Manufacturing Utilization excluding Hi-Tech Industries Annual Data Trends: General Purpose Machinery Production to Manufacturing Utilization excluding Hi-Tech Industries Annual Data TrendsUS Industrial Production Index to Industrial Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production Index to Industrial Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Machinery New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Machinery New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Equipment & Software Investment 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Equipment & Software Investment 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeNondefense Capital Goods New Orders to Material Handling Equipment New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders to Material Handling Equipment New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeInterest Rate Comparison: Interest Rate ComparisonShort-Term Interest Rates to US Gov’t Long-Term Bond Yields Annual Data Trends : Short-Term Interest Rates to US Gov’t Long-Term Bond Yields Annual Data Trends Mortgage Rates to Federal Funds Raw Data: Mortgage Rates to Federal Funds Raw DataUS Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMCorporate Bond Prices to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Corporate Bond Prices to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeM2 Money Supply to Retail Sales 12MMT(A) Data Trend Comparison : M2 Money Supply to Retail Sales 12MMT(A) Data Trend Comparison U.S. Composite Leading Indicator 1996 = 100: U.S. Composite Leading Indicator 1996 = 100 12MMA Actual 12/12 1/12 Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMPurchasing Manager’s Index to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Purchasing Manager’s Index to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeITR Leading Indicator to General Purpose Machinery Production Raw Data to 12/12 Rate-of-Change: ITR Leading Indicator to General Purpose Machinery Production Raw Data to 12/12 Rate-of-ChangeNew Homes Sales Median Price to Stock Prices Index Data Trends: New Homes Sales Median Price to Stock Prices Index Data TrendsRetail Sales Excluding Automobiles Trillions of 82-84$: Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles Trillions of 82-84$ 12MMT 3MMT 3/12 12/12 Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMHigher Education Expenditures to Retail Sales excluding Autos 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Higher Education Expenditures to Retail Sales excluding Autos 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeHousing Starts to Inventory Ratio: Housing Starts to Inventory RatioCasino Gambling Expenditures to Housing Starts 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Casino Gambling Expenditures to Housing Starts 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Non-Residential Construction Data Trends: US Industrial Production to Non-Residential Construction Data TrendsFed. Government Cash Account to US Industrial Production Index Data Trends: Fed. Government Cash Account to US Industrial Production Index Data TrendsConsumer Price Index to Crude Oil Futures Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Consumer Price Index to Crude Oil Futures Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMNondefense Capital Goods New Orders excluding Aircraft to Steel Scrap Producer Price Index 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders excluding Aircraft to Steel Scrap Producer Price Index 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeGDP , Bils of US $, Current Prices Percent of World GDP: GDP , Bils of US $, Current Prices Percent of World GDP You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
Beaulieu Mahugani Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 466 Category: Business & Fin.. License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: April 10, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... By: p0k0r0 (38 month(s) ago) That's what Old Man Do' ... I don't like it. Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close Premium member Presentation Transcript March 2006: March 2006 “Projecting When Business Cycles Will Change” Presented By: The Institute for Trend Research Brian Beaulieu brian@ecotrends.org www.ecotrends.org US Industrial Production Index Forecast Through December 2008 Annual Average Index: US Industrial Production Index Forecast Through December 2008 Annual Average Index Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTM Here today Tipping Points- Hard Landing – 2009-2010 Debt Interest Rates Demographics Inflation Inventories China – WTO Elections Oil Home Prices US Industrial Production to Textiles Production Annual Average Indices: US Industrial Production to Textiles Production Annual Average Indices US Industrial Production to Oil & Gas Extraction Production Annual Data Trends: US Industrial Production to Oil & Gas Extraction Production Annual Data TrendsExports by Nation Percentage of Total World Exports of Goods and Services: Exports by Nation Percentage of Total World Exports of Goods and Services Source: IMF 10.1 5.9 4.8 4.7 3.8 3.4 9.4 5.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 US Germany China Japan France UK Italy Canada 0 2 4 6 8 10 12Slide8: China Today and Tomorrow (Aka The Dirty Dozen) Social Costs vs. Infrastructure Skilled Labor Raw Materials $5 fresh capital to $1 incremental output Relational Government FDI – SARS – No Guarantees Banking System Negative Demographics Floating the Yuan Global Competitiveness WTO EU denied China Market Status Pollution 7 of the 10 most polluted cities Employment – Civilian Labor Force Annual Data Trend: Employment – Civilian Labor Force Annual Data TrendGOODS & SERVICES AS A PERCENT OF GDP (real) w/o structures: GOODS & SERVICES AS A PERCENT OF GDP (real) w/o structures Example: Revenue 12MMT: Example: Revenue 12MMT Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 1.47 1.51 1.65 1.75 1.76 1.64 1.71 1.74 1.54 1.44 1.24 1.26 1.74 12MMT: 3MMT = 4.63 3MMT = 5.14 3MMT = 4.98 3MMT = 4.22 3MMT = 3.95 3MMT = 4.24 12MMT = 17.54 12MMT = 18.54 12MMT = 18.70 12MMT = 18.97 8.2%RATE-OF-CHANGE : ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 2/06 ANNUAL MOVING TOTAL (12MMT) AS OF 2/05 = 1/12 3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 2/06 3-MOS MOVING TOTAL (3MMT) AS OF 2/05 = 3/12 = 12/12 ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 2/06 ACTUAL MONTHLY DATA AS OF 2/05 RATE-OF-CHANGE US Total Industrial Production 12/12 Rate-of-Change: US Total Industrial Production 12/12 Rate-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMCompany L to US Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Company L to US Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Canadian Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Canadian Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Japan Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Japan Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMUS Industrial Production to China Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to China Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeChina Cutting Machine Tools to China Industrial Production Index 12/12 Rates-of-Change: China Cutting Machine Tools to China Industrial Production Index 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Asia Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Asia Industrial Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeIndia Industrial Production Index to India Machinery & Equipment excluding Transport Production Index Rates-of-Change: India Industrial Production Index to India Machinery & Equipment excluding Transport Production Index Rates-of-ChangeUS to Europe Industrial Production Annual Average Data Trends: US to Europe Industrial Production Annual Average Data Trends Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMIndicator Sequence: Indicator SequenceFour Phases: Four PhasesSlide24: Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Start to phase out marginal opportunities 2. Build inventories in the system 3. Continue placing capital equipment orders 4. Hire "top" people 5. Implement training programs 6. Add sales staff 7. Introduce new product lines 8. Begin advertising and sales promotions 9. Implement plans for facilities' expansion 10. Update standard costs Phase Late A - Recovery: Slide25: Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Accelerate training 2. Continue to build inventory 3. Increase prices 4. Find the answers to “what next” 5. Consider outside manufacturing sources if internal resources becoming tight 6. Check the process flow for possible future bottlenecks 7. Open distribution centers 8. Use improved cash flow for corporate governance. Phase Early B - Growth: Slide26: Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Stay in stock 2. Penetrate new OEM accounts 3. Develop plan for lower activity in traditional, mature markets 4. Begin missionary efforts into new markets 5. Consider taking on subcontract work if the backside of the cycle looks recessionary 6. Freeze all expansion plans in current core business units 7. Spin off undesirable operations 8. Stay realistic – beware linear budgets 9. Consider selling the business in a climate of maximum “goodwill” Phase Late B Early C - Prosperity: Slide27: Phase Management ObjectivesTM : 1. Begin work force reductions 2. Reduce advertising 3. Cut training 4. Weed out inferior products 5. Reduce inventories 6. Avoid long-term purchase commitments – late in the price cycle 7. Set budget reduction goals by dept. 8. Encourage distributors to decrease inventory 9. Concentrate on cash and the balance sheet 10. De-Emphasize commodity products/services in anticipation of diminishing margins Phase Late C - Warning: US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production Annual Data Trends: US Industrial Production to General Purpose Machinery Production Annual Data TrendsUS Industrial Production to Paper & Products Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Paper & Products Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeGeneral Purpose Machinery Production to Manufacturing Utilization excluding Hi-Tech Industries Annual Data Trends: General Purpose Machinery Production to Manufacturing Utilization excluding Hi-Tech Industries Annual Data TrendsUS Industrial Production Index to Industrial Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production Index to Industrial Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Machinery New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Machinery New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Equipment & Software Investment 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Equipment & Software Investment 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeNondefense Capital Goods New Orders to Material Handling Equipment New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders to Material Handling Equipment New Orders 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeInterest Rate Comparison: Interest Rate ComparisonShort-Term Interest Rates to US Gov’t Long-Term Bond Yields Annual Data Trends : Short-Term Interest Rates to US Gov’t Long-Term Bond Yields Annual Data Trends Mortgage Rates to Federal Funds Raw Data: Mortgage Rates to Federal Funds Raw DataUS Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change: US Industrial Production to Corporate Bond Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMCorporate Bond Prices to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Corporate Bond Prices to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeM2 Money Supply to Retail Sales 12MMT(A) Data Trend Comparison : M2 Money Supply to Retail Sales 12MMT(A) Data Trend Comparison U.S. Composite Leading Indicator 1996 = 100: U.S. Composite Leading Indicator 1996 = 100 12MMA Actual 12/12 1/12 Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMPurchasing Manager’s Index to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Purchasing Manager’s Index to General Purpose Machinery Production 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeITR Leading Indicator to General Purpose Machinery Production Raw Data to 12/12 Rate-of-Change: ITR Leading Indicator to General Purpose Machinery Production Raw Data to 12/12 Rate-of-ChangeNew Homes Sales Median Price to Stock Prices Index Data Trends: New Homes Sales Median Price to Stock Prices Index Data TrendsRetail Sales Excluding Automobiles Trillions of 82-84$: Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles Trillions of 82-84$ 12MMT 3MMT 3/12 12/12 Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMHigher Education Expenditures to Retail Sales excluding Autos 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Higher Education Expenditures to Retail Sales excluding Autos 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeHousing Starts to Inventory Ratio: Housing Starts to Inventory RatioCasino Gambling Expenditures to Housing Starts 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Casino Gambling Expenditures to Housing Starts 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeUS Industrial Production to Non-Residential Construction Data Trends: US Industrial Production to Non-Residential Construction Data TrendsFed. Government Cash Account to US Industrial Production Index Data Trends: Fed. Government Cash Account to US Industrial Production Index Data TrendsConsumer Price Index to Crude Oil Futures Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Consumer Price Index to Crude Oil Futures Prices 12/12 Rates-of-Change Source: ITR’s EcoTrendsTMNondefense Capital Goods New Orders excluding Aircraft to Steel Scrap Producer Price Index 12/12 Rates-of-Change: Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders excluding Aircraft to Steel Scrap Producer Price Index 12/12 Rates-of-ChangeGDP , Bils of US $, Current Prices Percent of World GDP: GDP , Bils of US $, Current Prices Percent of World GDP