Formation of the Cold War System

Formation of the Cold War System: 

Formation of the Cold War System

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What is a cold war? An intense, sustained political confrontation between countries, involving all spheres of relations (a war) But without a direct armed clash (cold) – cooperation is also present

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The Cold War started unexpectedly early after the end of WWII – almost without a pause A unique combination of factors: Geopolitical Ideological military

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Geopolitics: Emergence of a bipolar system: rise of the 2 superpowers, US-Soviet relations became the central axis of world politics Ideology: The historic defeat of the Global Right in 1945 empowered the Global Left – socialism, in some form or another, became “the wave of the future” Military power: Introduction of atomic weapons as tools of foreign policy

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Who was on the offensive? Who was on the defensive? Who felt threatened and insecure? Who felt confident and aggressive?

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Western Fears The crisis of global capitalism The shift to the Left in the politics of Western countries: socialism on the agenda The upsurge of anti-colonial struggles in the Third World The emergence of the USSR as the most powerful state in Eurasia The US steps in to contain both Soviet power and the growth of the Left in the West and in the Third World

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Soviet Fears Enormous economic losses from the war How to control society after the war The war as school of citizenship Mass exposure to European life The population of new territories under Soviet control The legacy of terror Fear of a united Western front against the USSR

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Factors of Western self-confidence The USSR is internally weak The US is a powerhouse US had enormous advantages in late 1940s: 50% of global production Nuclear monopoly Naval and air superiority Army on a par with USSR The architect of a liberal world order Totalitarianism will be resisted by most people; the West should promote freedom

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Factors of Soviet self-confidence The Soviet system passed the test of survival and strength Soviet assets: Control of territory: the dominant power in Eurasia A totalitarian system associated with progress Role in the Global Left, deriving its strength from the crisis of capitalism Capitalism is in systemic crisis The rise of the Global Left - potential Soviet allies

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Stalin’s worldview after 1945 Stalinism fully vindicated The USSR as a model of socialism Confidence that the end of capitalism is near Red imperialism – promotion of communism by military and paramilitary means Determination to control and manipulate foreign revolutionary forces Readiness to make pragmatic deals with Western powers – economic, diplomatic - putting ideology aside Massive investment in military power: preparation for new wars Need for total control of society

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The Global Left: the postwar offensive EUROPE Yugoslavia and Albania – Communists have come to power on their own Greece, Italy, France – Communist parties may come to power on their own Germany, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria – defeated states in shambles; Soviet presence a major boost to local Communists Poland – Soviet presence assures Communist takeover Czechoslovakia – gradual Communist takeover from a strong domestic base, with Soviet help Moderate, reformist Left makes major political gains in the West

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The West was primarily concerned about survival and rebuilding of capitalism in Western Europe USSR was primarily concerned about strategic control of Eastern Europe The division of Europe, agreed in 1945, materialized: both sides mostly kept their commitments The fate of Germany remained the one major bone of contention – but even there, the lines established in 1945 helped stabilize the situation In Asia, it was an open-ended continental struggle – but not between Russia and America

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ASIA: Indochina: Vietnamese Communists as the main anti-colonialist force, proclaim Vietnam’s independence in 1945 China, 1945-49: Communists defeat Nationalists Korea, 1945: Communists control the North with Soviet help India, 1947: Independence won by nationalists supported by communists Indonesia, Burma: nationalist-communist coalitions lead anticolonialist campaigns Iran: the rise of a Communist-nationalist alliance Turkey: emergence of a strong Communist-led Left The Mideast The establishment of Israel - with Soviet support The rise of Arab nationalism against Western colonial rule

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What was the Soviet role in the Global Left’s offensive? to help beat the Global Right in World War II to project the image of successful socialism to help install Communist regimes in a few countries to be there as a counterweight to the US Stalin could control only a small part of the Global Left – in Eastern Europe He readily betrayed the Left whenever it suited his geopolitical goals And he would try to engineer a Left-wing takeover of a country whenever he considered it necessary The postwar surge of the Global Left offered opportunities to Stalin and his regime – but also posed major challenges

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US responses to the Global Left’s offensive Did the Global Left present only a challenge to the US? Did it offer any opportunities to the US? Could the US work with it? The core dilemma: suppression or cooptation? The range of options: Suppression extreme: War against the USSR and the Global Left Cooptation extreme: Social-democratic reforms of capitalism, cooptation of the Left, accommodation with the Soviet Union as a status-quo power badly in need of healing. A search for the middle ground – for effective combinations of both American elites were split; foreign policy was heavily politicized and hotly contested; the strategy evolved from crisis to crisis

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“Containment of Communism” The state-to-state level: C. of the USSR. Nuclear deterrence, a chain of anti-Soviet alliances (NATO and others), economic attrition strategies, propaganda war against Communism, subversion The transnational level: C. of the Global Left. Revival of the global economy, the Marshall Plan, use of force, propaganda, subversion - and also cooptation, tactical alliances with elements of the Global Left on anti-Soviet platforms A massive, complex, messy, costly, evolving strategy of global counterrevolution

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The myth of “Global Communist Conspiracy” Exaggerating and misrepresenting the Soviet role in the Global Left Exposing Soviet totalitarianism “Freedom vs. Communism” (as distorted an image as “Capitalism vs. Socialism”)

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Did containment work? 1. Yes: in Europe. Why? There was a geopolitical deal between Stalin and the West (Yalta) Successful cooptation of the reformist Left Stalin’s influence on Western Communists and his policy of discouraging revolution 2. In Asia, these conditions were absent: No deal The US refused to co-opt the Left Asian Left-wing forces were mostly out of Soviet control; Stalin was prepared to gamble (Korea) 3. Soviet totalitarianism hardens, a crackdown in Eastern Europe

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By 1950, containment looked like a manifest failure: The USSR rapidly rebuilt its economy (5 years instead of expected 15-20 years) and went nuclear Eastern Europe was firmly under Soviet control China went Communist North Korea invaded the South The image of Communism on the march; unstoppable, winning Revolt of the American Right against failing Cold War policy