shaw

Overview of the presentation: 

Overview of the presentation Strategic objectives - aligning social policy and transport efficiency Understanding the gaps in the system What is government proposing ? Why did we choose this approach ? South Africa’s land use dilemma Characteristics of South Africa’s urban transport system Current initiatives to achieve the strategy

Strategic objectives - aligning social policy and transport efficiency: 

Strategic objectives - aligning social policy and transport efficiency

The White Paper Passenger Vision: 

The White Paper Passenger Vision “The promotion of a safe, reliable, effective, efficient, co-ordinated, integrated, and environmentally friendly land passenger transport system…managed in an accountable manner to ensure that people experience improving levels of mobility and accessibility The objective of MSA is to ground this vision in action

System objectives and strategic challenges for current system: 

System objectives and strategic challenges for current system 2.8 million stranded Up to 25% of passengers spend more than 10% of HDI on transport Affordability Travel time Convenience, choice Safety Comfort, etc. Funding Flexibility / innovation Access for all Minimise system cost Travel time Fiscus System Objectives Gaps / Strategic Challenges High travel times Poor safety / security Low convenience / comfort Increasing system cost Inefficient land use and transport patterns Increasing congestion

Understanding the gaps in the system: 

Understanding the gaps in the system

Transport Customer Segments: Gaps Against Customer Needs: 

Transport Customer Segments: Gaps Against Customer Needs Safety Affordability Availability Travel Times Convenience Choice Gaps Door to Door Journey Time (Mins.) 12 49 57 50 50 PT 31 Car 31

Gap in System Sustainability: 

Gap in System Sustainability Current Capital Spending as a Percentage of Long-term Capital Requirements Roads Buses Taxi Implication Result

What is government proposing ?: 

What is government proposing ?

Operations and Service Regulation is based on tendering of services, differentiation and integration of modes : 

Operations and Service Regulation is based on tendering of services, differentiation and integration of modes Degree of Government Planning / Regulation Relationship Between Degree of Government Intervention and Integration of Modes Low High UK (not London) Buenos Aires Brazil Continental Europe London New Zealand Integration of Modes / Operation High Low Range of Strategic Options

Densification of transport corridors: 

Densification of transport corridors Dispersed land use drives poor public transport performance Increased frequency, speed and vehicle utilisation enhance operator returns Focus on functional high demand movement flows Consolidate separate movements into dominant corridor Prioritise actions to support “optimal mode” Co-ordinate housing, land use, utility services, transport infrastructure and transport operations

Five Steps to transform urban transport: 

Five Steps to transform urban transport Reality2000 Set Boundaries Work Within Boundaries Align System Logic Vision For Transport Set Playing Field Define the Rules of the Game Enable Firm Level Choices Target National and Customer Objectives Determine National Objectives Firm Level Choices Transport Vision DoT Strategy Frame Objectives Reality2020 Establish Clear Goals Send Clear Signals Create Alignment Build Capacity and Remove Obstacles Monitor Outcomes

Government’s Evolving Role in implementing the strategy: 

Government’s Evolving Role in implementing the strategy Determine National Objectives Government as actor Deliver the system logic Cooperative Governance Reset rules Create transparency Enable choices Enforcement Government as facilitator: Promote innovation and upgrading Ensure targets met Reality2000 Reality2020 Establish the Vision Set the Playing Field Define the Rules of the Game Enable Firm Level Choices Target National and Customer Objectives

Urban transport - Three key strategic actions: 

Urban transport - Three key strategic actions Controls and incentives Alignment of housing and transport Co-ordination within government Focus on corridor and support efficient modal mix Low cost basic services Differentiated services Road space management Tendering / concessioning Regulated competition Industry regulation Sustainability / investment

Why did we choose this approach ?: 

Why did we choose this approach ?

South Africa’s land use dilemma: 

South Africa’s land use dilemma

Corridor Densification is most suitable for the South African city: 

Corridor Densification is most suitable for the South African city Higher central city densities would enhance public transport use and sustainability However in SA, this is not feasible, given: High density township outside of central area Suburbs developed at low density and difficult to change Increasing decentralisation trend SA should focus on a corridor pattern of public transport route structure and density such as in Curitiba, Stockholm, Gothenburg, Singapore Corridor approach driven by Decentralised high density townships Major public and private corridor movement flows CBD decline Vacant land between most townships and suburban areas Long travel distances Compact City Option Corridor Densification Option

Characteristics of South Africa’s urban transport system: 

Characteristics of South Africa’s urban transport system

Characteristics of South Africa’s urban transport modes: 

Characteristics of South Africa’s urban transport modes Minibus taxi Bus Rail Informal and largely unregulated Compete directly with formal modes Flexible Average age 9 yrs 40% of modal split (1993) Generally operate low frequency long routes in support of dispersed land use Increasing subsidy requirement Move from ticket subsidy to tendered contract 26% of modal split (1993) Cheapest mode Approximately 2000 persons per trainset Average age 25 yrs Static subsidy but no reinvestment 34% of modal split (1993)

Current performance of modes in the urban context: 

Current performance of modes in the urban context

Road and Rail on Line Haul: 

Road and Rail on Line Haul Road Passengers per Day per Direction (Ridership) Trip Length (Kilometers) Illustrative — Lowest Cost Infrastructure Over Specific Distance and Ridership Volumes in urban South Africa Heavy Rail

Current initiatives to achieve the strategy: 

Current initiatives to achieve the strategy

Land Transport Transition Bill to legislate planning process: 

Land Transport Transition Bill to legislate planning process Public Transport Data Public Transport Plan Integrated Transport Plan Permission Strategy Rationalisation Plan First round planning sequence Second round planning sequence

Using the planning process to achieve the objectives of the strategy: 

Access Cost / affordability / sustainability Journey time Using the planning process to achieve the objectives of the strategy Choice Comfort Sustainability Safety Integrated Transport Plan

Using legislation to achieve the institutional structure of a Transport authority: 

Using legislation to achieve the institutional structure of a Transport authority Appropriate Institutional Structure Trade-offs and political choices Sustainable public transport network Institutional apparatus for Transport Authority High volume corridor and hub focus Rehabilitate and improve selected infrastructure Land use management mechanism linked to IDP Full fledged Transport Authority Restructured sustainable modal industry Prioritised infrastructure for public transport gain Corridor and node location pattern Highly integrated network of services Short run Long run

Durban as a flagship project - Interaction between planning tasks: 

Durban as a flagship project - Interaction between planning tasks Identify major nodes or possible transfer centre locations Identify major public transport corridors and potential new or under-utilised corridors Comprehensive assessment of cost and level of service of new and existing modes in Durban context Develop a public transport strategy on the basis of maximising the use of least cost highest level of service providers Mode F Mode A MODE A MODE F MODE A MODE F BEFORE AFTER PATRONAGE Identify factors which would generate a modal shift in favour of a selected mode Option 1 Option 2 Cost - benefit trade-offs Identify cost and benefits of alternative least cost actions 1st Cut Option 1 Option 2 Cost - benefit trade-offs Refined cost and benefits including the effect of user preferences 2nd Cut Detailed implementation plan for each corridor Transfer enhancement implementation plan Phased implementation plan for total system Land use management system to favour public transport Task 1 - High priority public transport network Task 2 - Assessment of modes Task 3 - Public transport provision strategy based on least cost Task 5 - User preference analysis Action plans Task 6 Task 7 Task 8 Task 9 Task 4 - Present trade-offs Political interaction Political interaction Rail Bus Taxi Political interaction Task 3a

Re-capitalisation of the minibus taxi industry: 

Re-capitalisation of the minibus taxi industry Mix of 18 and 35 seater vehicles to replace the current 16 seater vehicles in operation Once-off scrapping allowance to buy-back existing vehicles Safety and design criteria included in tender for the new vehicle Vehicles fitted with tracking to assist in regulation Vehicles fitted with smart card ticketing to reduce bank charges and encourage modal integration

Proposal for the restructuring of commuter rail: 

Proposal for the restructuring of commuter rail Transport Authority specifies service in terms of integrated plan Operating Concessions Concession Consultancy National Commuter Rail Agency (newly established) Infrastructure Trains Private sector subcontractors Outsourcing Specify Assets Specify services

Conclusion: 

Conclusion We still have a long way to go Land use change is proving to be one of the more difficult areas to tackle Competition in the provision of services is difficult to address in a sustainable manner in developing countries In the end there is only a limited amount that can be done at a National level and it is important to empower cities to act decisively Integration of services requires a careful mix of regulation and competition which cannot be mutually exclusive

Backup: 

Backup

Sustainability of subsidised bus: 

Sustainability of subsidised bus Number of Passenger Trips (1991-1995) 1998 Rands Number of Passenger Trips (millions) Average Age of Bus Fleet Tendering should improve operating cost and include a provision for upgrading the fleet More appropriate roles for modes should improve utilisation Subsidy per Trip Average Age of Fleet (Years) Subsidy per Trip (1998 Rands)

Minibus taxi — The Cycle of Unsustainability: 

Minibus taxi — The Cycle of Unsustainability Declining Profitability Exacerbated by weak regulation and enforcement Exacerbated by lack of tangible incentives that will reward safe operating practices

Commuter Rail - The funding dilemma: 

Commuter Rail - The funding dilemma To break the cycle Net present value of investments: US $640M Net present value of planned operating subsidies: US $120M (5 times as much subsidy spent on investments compared to operations) Actual operating subsidies lower due to allowed fare increases Rail:Capital to Total Spending Example : Buenos Aires 1905M Operations 1655M Investment Lack of Funding for Investment

Road Space Management : 

Road Space Management Charging Controls Alternatives International Experience International Experience International Experience

Impact of Decentralisation on Transport Costs: 

Impact of Decentralisation on Transport Costs Impact of Decentralisation on Transport Costs Impact of Decentralisation Sandton Cents Soweto 31km 40km JHB CBD 45km Soweto to: Strydom Park

Urban Transport Strategic Actions: Five Dimensions: 

Urban Transport Strategic Actions: Five Dimensions

Targeting government funding support: 

Targeting government funding support

Strategic timescales for implementation: 

Long Term 2008-2010 Medium Term 2004-2008 Strategic timescales for implementation Short Term 2000-2004 Land Use Set up co-ordination bodies Develop detailed strategy and implementation plan Implement Plan Infrastructure Develop detailed plans for each city Agree method of funding Demonstration projects Implement Plan Road Space Management Extend existing solutions to other cities / corridors Demonstration projects to test new solutions Apply new solutions more widely Public Transport Planning, Regulation and Subsidy System Create environment for regulated competition

Comparing the the recap vehicle to the current minibus taxi option: 

Note: One South African Rand (R) is equal to approximately 16 US cents Comparing the the recap vehicle to the current minibus taxi option 35+2 passenger seats Aisle potential for 10 standing passengers Average of 14.5 seats No standing room 17+1 passenger seats Aisle potential for 8 standing passengers Capacity Capital Cost Estimated Ex-works R167.5k R6.5k for satellite and smart card equip R198k including VAT 30% Scrap. Allow. Range R110k-R120k Toyota Hiace Super 16 costs R114k including VAT Estimated Ex-works R100k R6.5k for satellite and smart card equip R121k including VAT 32.5% Scrap. Allow. Key Operating Costs Consumption 22l/100km 2 Maintenance 21 c per km Consumption average 17l/100km 1 Maintenance average 6c per km Consumption 14l/100km 2 Maintenance 14 c per km Other Package Assumptions Financing ranges at 22% to 30% Insurance at 16% Financing at 16% with 10% deposit (thus finance 55-60%) Insurance at 6% pa Guaranteed residual of 15% represents savings for the operator (ie vehicle ownership is with operator)