F U T U R E T E C H N O L O G I E S : F U T U R E T E C H N O L O G I E S Ant Brooks & Lawrence Edwards Future Foundation


Why look to the future?: Why look to the future? There are 2 reasons that great enterprises fail: Inability to escape the past Inability to create the future Hamal & Prahalad, Competing for the Future "Don't solve problems, pursue opportunities," - Peter Drucker


Trends and Cycles: Trends and Cycles Trends are long term changes in an environment Cycles are (obviously) cyclical changes Trends are long term changes in an environment Cycles are (obviously) cyclical changes


Horizons: Horizons Short/Medium term perspective Long term perspective Today +5 years +15 years +10 years Scenario planning strategic research Market research


Scenario Planning: Scenario Planning Social Dynamics Economic Issues Political Issues Technological Issues more more less less


Trends: Our Robotic Future: Trends: Our Robotic Future Trends: Industrialisation Globalisation Consumerism Quality of Life


Consumer Robotics: Consumer Robotics


Consumer Robotics: Consumer Robotics General trends Dan Kara, president of Robotics Trends, estimates that 4 million personal robots will be sold in 2006. The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe predicts that more than 2.1 million robots for personal use will be sold from 2003 to 2006. Estimated growth from 545,000 sales in 2002 to 1.5 million in 2006.


Roomba: Roomba Robotic vacuum cleaner made by IRobot What does it do? Clean about three average size rooms on a single battery charge, which lasts about 120 minutes Detect the best cleaning pattern for a given room Seek out dirt particles the size of finely ground pepper. Tiny microphones can detect a high concentration of dust particles, for extra cleaning Charge itself at a docking station


Roomba: Roomba Sales figures All of 2003: 470,000 units. First three months of 2004: More than 500,000 Price Basic version: $150 Top-of the range: $250


Rest of the Robots: Rest of the Robots Robosapien Marketing “Fluid motions and gestures: fast dynamic 2-speed walking and turning; full-function arms with two types of grippers.” “67 pre-programmed functions: pick-up, throw, kick, dance, kung-fu, belch, rap and more;” “Fluent international ‘caveman’ speech” Cost: Just $99


Rest of the Robots: Rest of the Robots Asimo (Honda) Can walk up and down stairs and balance on one leg Kawada HRP-2 5-foot tall, able to get up if knocked down Designed to care for the elderly in Japan Wakamaru (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries) 3-foot tall, wheels, Internet connectivity Recognises voice and faces $9000 price tag, available only in Japan


Rest of the Robots: Rest of the Robots Aibo (Sony) Understands and responds to 100+ words and phrases Built-in wireless LAN connectivity Raise from a puppy or an adult A multitude of facial expressions Cost: $1800 QRIO "SONY decided to create a 'partner' that talks to you, plays with you, encourages you" Child-sized Can walk on uneven surfaces, dance, have conversations, recognise faces, body language Would cost $65,000 if released now


Trends: Terrorism & Video-on-demand: Trends: Terrorism & Video-on-demand Cocooning Terrorism


Intelligent Living Spaces: Intelligent Living Spaces


Homes of the Future: Homes of the Future Consider the last few decades Microwaves Automatic lights Larry Ellison's front door


Homes of the Future: Homes of the Future Living room Furniture that adjusts to your body's shape at the mention of your name Rooms that change the temperature to suit individuals Sensors that monitor indoor air pollution and health conditions Kitchen Automated pantries, chefs and waste-management systems Every family member will be able to "order" a different meal at the same time, and a robot will clean up after them A stove with a tap so pots of water don't have to be lugged from sink to stove Sinks designed to steam veggies right there


Homes of the Future: Homes of the Future Bathroom Polar ventilating system that instantly clears odours When a toilet seat is raised, the ventilating toilet system begins and clears and purifies the air Maintenance and monitoring Diagnostics that call for necessary repairs Systems that allow owners to review and change their energy-use patterns for greater efficiency Safety sensors will not only detect crime and fire, but warn us about possible accidents and dangerous weather.


Smart rooms: Smart rooms Smart architectural surfaces MIT's Consumer Electronics Lab Information and Communications University in Seoul What are they? Each tile is a computer, a display, a camera, a speaker and a microphone Communicate wirelessly; powered by wall studs Essentially a pocket PC -- cheap and light on power If you have a pocket PC, it becomes part of the room!


Smart rooms: Smart rooms Capabilities Seamless video conferencing Ability to pick out one voice from many Room knows where you are looking, where you are pointing


Hypersonic Sound: Hypersonic Sound Developed by American Technology Corporation How does it work? Breaks sound down into ultrasonic frequencies beyond human hearing When the ultrasonic waves hit something, they interact and create an audible sound


Hypersonic Sound: Hypersonic Sound How might it be used? Speaking to someone on a construction site Marketing/product information in a store Museum exhibitions Passengers in cars can listen to their own music Sending instructions to a player on the field


Trends: Talking to machines & telepathy: Trends: Talking to machines & telepathy Ubiquitous technology Symbiotic relationship with technology Convergence


Interface: Interface


Devices: Devices Convergence of devices Phone, PDA, PC, TV Light-based keyboard The skin network The business card handshake Touch me remotely, baby! "Scientists in Britain and the United States shook hands on Tuesday. No big deal, one might think, but the men in question were 3,000 miles apart, connected only by the Internet.” - Reuters, October 29, 2002


Devices: Devices Headsets: An immersive visual experience i-glasses SVGA 3D HMD US$1000 and dropping 800 x 600 resolution includes speakers weighs just 200 grams Barriers to reality Rendering rate Number of pixels Sun’s Project Looking Glass “It almost feels as if you are standing in the center of a sphere. You can then roam around the sphere with your mouse, viewing windows and open applications as you move around" - Craig Nicholas, SUN


Wearable Computing: Wearable Computing Wearable computing Reality laws


Thought Activated Devices: Thought Activated Devices When will the world’s TV remote control go on sale? What about a mind-reading music system?


Unparalysing the paralysed: Unparalysing the paralysed 2000: Dr. Miguel Nicolelis trained a monkey to move a robotic arm using thoughts and electrodes implanted in her brain. 2003: Refined the experiment, training a monkey to move the arm without even bothering to move her own arm. 2003/2004: Experiments on Parkinson's disease patients to find the individual neurons that are activated when someone consciously thinks about a movement and then makes the movement. Studies have shown that these brain cells remain active even in amputees.


Unparalysing the paralysed: Unparalysing the paralysed April 2004: The FDA approved the first clinical trial of such a device in paralysed people. BrainGate system Internal sensor implant carries signals to external processors via wires running through the skull Sensor itself is smaller than a baby aspirin and has 100 electrode sensors -- each thinner than a hair -- that detect electrical activity in the brain. Brain Communicator Under development at Neural Signals in Atlanta Uses wireless technology to transmit signals to external processors rather wires.


Brain printing: Brain printing EEG based testing system It can determine whether specific information is stored in a person’s memory Brain Fingerprinting testing measures responses to relevant words, pictures or sounds presented by a computer It has provided highly accurate results in research conducted over the past 15 years.


Brain printing: Brain printing For healthcare it will reduce costs of diagnosing Alzheimer’s Disease by 75%. "...up to 70% of major crimes would someday be appropriate for applying Brain Fingerprinting technology” -- Dr. Drew Richardson, former FBI counter-terrorism chief and now Vice President of Forensic Science for Brain Fingerprinting Laboratories, Inc. The results of this patented testing methodology have been ruled admissible in an Iowa District Court.


Kevin Wakefield: Kevin Wakefield


Trends: The invisible world: Trends: The invisible world Miniaturisation Global Challenges New challenges


Nanotech and Biotech: Nanotech and Biotech


What is Nanotech?: What is Nanotech? Nano means ten to the minus nine, or one billionth About 1/80,000 of the diameter of a human hair 3 to 6 atoms can fit inside of a nanometer Term first coined by Eric Drexler in 1986 in the book Engines of Creation


What is Nanotech?: What is Nanotech? Nanoscale technologies are the development and use of devices that have a size of only a few nanometres IBM commercial where their Almaden lab had pushed together some thirty odd xenon atoms to spell out the letters IBM This year, investment in nanotechnology by governments world wide exceeds $3.5 billion The boot-strap problem


Applications: Applications Current Sunblock, stain-resistant clothing, and catalysts Future Environmental remediation Cleaning up pollution Power/energy e.g. a liquid slurry that, when painted onto a surface, would collect solar energy. Medical Disease diagnosis and treatment Cancer Architectural


Concerns: Concerns What are the effects of nanostructures on human health and the environment? How will individual privacy be protected from surveillance nanosensors? How will inexpensive mass manufacture of nanomaterials change the workforce? How will nanotechnology-related businesses affect local and global economies?


Concerns: Concerns Grey goo scenario Self-replicating nanobots -> out of control Fallen out of favour with scientists: Unlikely scenario


When?: When? When? 5-30 year horizon often predicted But we actually have functioning nanotech today...


Biotechnology: Biotechnology Convergence Synthetic biology is about rewiring networks of genes, "genetic circuits," to create entirely new biological devices. “Nanobiotechnology" According to the National Science Foundation, the annual nanobiotechnology market will jump to $36 billion by 2006.


Biotechnology applications: Biotechnology applications Microbial "factory" Developed at University of California, Berkeley. Produces an anti-malarial drug, potentially cutting the cost of pills from dollars to dimes and saving millions of lives every year. Diatoms Single-celled algae that boast beautiful glass shells Researchers are reverse-engineering diatoms in the hopes of harnessing their ability to build precise nanostructures With some non-trivial genetic engineering, the algae could be coaxed into cranking out shells shaped to order


Biotechnology applications: Biotechnology applications Virus-machines MIT materials scientist Angela Belcher altered the proteins in bacteriophages so that the viruses assembled themselves into the building blocks of liquid crystal displays. More recently, she produced a virus that coats itself with semiconducting material and forms a bridge between two electrodes. Fun with DNA! In May 2004, New York University chemist Nadrian Seeman reported that he had built a DNA "robot", just 10 nanometers long that shuffled along a tiny track. The next step is to enable the biped to lug around a metal atom. Biology may actually be the nanotechnology that makes nanotechnology work.


Trends: Fear of death & Fear of growing old: Trends: Fear of death & Fear of growing old George Gilder – Two fundamental limits that we are reaching: The speed of light The duration of human life Ageing population Length of working lives


Immortality: Immortality


Life Extension: Life Extension Life span statistics 1800: 24 years 1900: 48 years 2000: 76 years (in the developed world) Next generation: 120-150 is a reasonable expectation Anti-aging clinics $20,000 a year: Hormone therapy, DNA analysis, Anti-aging cosmetic surgery


Life Extension: Life Extension Objective Not to stretch out the last years of life, but instead to extend the middle years of life and delay the diseases of aging Estimate 15-25% of all human labour and resources are spent on health and longevity


Why do we age?: Why do we age? Telomeres A chain of repeating pairs of enzymes at the tips of DNA molecules Provide a buffer zone used in the DNA replication process Once the telomere has 'run out', replication begins to affect the rest of the DNA Telomerase An enzyme used to increase the length of telomeres during formation of cells What happens when telomerase activity is artificially increased? Effective result: Increased cell proliferation equivalent to 100 years of human life The cancer link: Cancerous cells have "inappropriate expression of telomerase"


“Uploading”: “Uploading” What do we replace today? Organs Limbs Cochlear implacts + experimental retinal implants Some brain functions (implanted chips) Where is this leading? Storage of human brain functions in a non-biological form


Whole Brain Emulation: Whole Brain Emulation How do we capture the data? Freezing/vitrification: Slice and scan Problem: Terminal! Problem: Does this capture enough? Micromechanical replacement: Bit-by-bit replication Problem: Needs nanotech Benefit: Not necessarily fatal Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) Problem: Tech not yet there Problem: Uncertain if this will capture enough Benefit: Not fatal


Whole Brain Emulation : Whole Brain Emulation Philosophical questions Self-awareness and personal identity: Where do they come from? What about the soul? Assumption: Emergent properties of information processing


Whole Brain Emulation: Whole Brain Emulation Applications Human backups Large-scale parallel processing From ten to a million times mental processing speed up Increase in perceived life-span Alternative bodies Merging experiences back into the whole What about reproduction/children? The digital divide of the future...?


F U T U R E T E C H N O L O G I E S : F U T U R E T E C H N O L O G I E S Ant Brooks & Lawrence Edwards Future Foundation