logging in or signing up Nash Lindon Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 68 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: February 20, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript The Writing of El Libro: The Writing of El LibroSlide2: A Writer’s Journey ©Thomas Nash 2002 The Quelccaya Ice Cap : The Quelccaya Ice Cap ©Thomas Nash 2002Why El Niño? the element of surprise: Why El Niño? the element of surprise Surprisingly devastating: 1972-73 El Niño Collapse of Peru’s anchoveta industry leads to turmoil in world commodity markets Surprisingly surprising: 1982-83 El Niño Scientists fail to realize a powerful El Niño is underway until it has almost peaked Surprisingly accurate: 1986 forecast Forecasting El Niño is deemed impossible, but Mark Cane & Steve Zebiak do it anywayWhy El Niño? the element of surprise: Why El Niño? the element of surprise Surprisingly Powerful: 1988-89 La Niña Drought & fires in the American West Surprisingly Unexpected:1990s El Niño(s) New teleconnections Epic floods on the Mississippi Hantavirus in the American Southwest El Niño & corn harvest in Zimbabwe A rise in intensity and frequency due to greenhouse gases? Why El Niño? the personal element : Why El Niño? the personal element A fascination with violent weather Me and hurricanes My grandmother and lightning My mother and tornadoes A feeling of following El Niño around 1996 Coral reef conference in Panama City Rick Fairbanks: El Niño & the monsoon Snorkeling through El Niño-killed corals May 1997 safari in the Okavango Delta El Niño & drought in southern africaSlide7: The collapse of the trade winds triggered dramatic changes in ocean temperatures & sea surface heights Red 30° C Blue 8° C NASA Goddard Space Flight Center El Niño! A slice through the Pacific at the Equator AUGUST 18, 1997 VOL. 150 NO. 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ SCIENCE IS IT EL NINO OF THE CENTURY? SHIFTING OCEAN CURRENTS IN THE PACIFIC COULD TRIGGER DRAMATIC SWINGS IN THE WORLD'S WEATHER BY J. MADELEINE NASH : AUGUST 18, 1997 VOL. 150 NO. 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ SCIENCE IS IT EL NINO OF THE CENTURY? SHIFTING OCEAN CURRENTS IN THE PACIFIC COULD TRIGGER DRAMATIC SWINGS IN THE WORLD'S WEATHER BY J. MADELEINE NASH Temperatures at the sea's surface have been rising so rapidly that they seem likely to equal those of the notorious El Nino of 1982-83, which left 2,000 people dead and $13 billion in economic losses. "That was the biggest El Nino we know of," says climate modeler Stephen Zebiak of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, "until maybe now." Advances in niñology a regional phenomenon: Advances in niñology a regional phenomenon Images ©Thomas Nash 2002 Peru’s coastal desert & fisheryAdvances in niñology a global phenomenon: Advances in niñology a global phenomenon Wet Dry Warm summer winter El Niño: a geophysical leviathan : El Niño: a geophysical leviathan NOAAPmel in a sea filled with “gentle awful stirrings” Herman Melville, Moby Dick Sir Gilbert Walker, 1868-1957: Sir Gilbert Walker, 1868-1957 Walker was the director of the India Meteorological Dept. for many years. He discovered the vast swaying in the atmosphere known as the Southern Oscillation. Photo courtesy of Eugene RasmussonJacob Bjerknes, 1897-1975: Jacob Bjerknes, 1897-1975 One of the meteorological giants of the 20th century, Bjerknes put the atmosphere and ocean together to form the modern picture of ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Photo courtesy of Euene RasmussonENSO : Pressure Darwin,Australia Temperature Equatorial Pacific (Galapagos-Line Islands) From Columbia University Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Website http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/dees/ees/climate/slides/ocean_atm_index.html ENSO Niño 3=90°W-150°W and 5°S- 5°N Klaus Wyrtki in 1949: Klaus Wyrtki in 1949 Wyrtki, now a professor emeritus at the University of Hawaii, added ocean dynamics to the picture. The ocean warms when water in the equatorial Pacific sloshes from west to east.Kelvin & Rossby Waves: Based on http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/dees/ees/climate/slides/ocean_atm_index.html New Guinea Peru Sea Level Higher Sea Level Lower Thermocline deep Kelvin & Rossby WavesSea Level Off the California Coast: Sea Level Off the California Coast http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/fact-sheet/fs175-99/El Niño, La Niña & Normal: El Niño, La Niña & Normal Noaa Before satellites & computers hand measurements: Before satellites & computers hand measurements Taking sea surface temperatures off Paita, Peru Reading traditional barometer in Darwin, Australia Images ©Thomas Nash 2002Sea Level, Kelvin Waves & El Niño: Sea Level, Kelvin Waves & El Niño NASASlide21: The TAO Array: the ocean in real time John Kermond, NOAAFrom the TAO Array: From the TAO Array Dec ‘96 Dec ‘97 anomaly actual Dec ‘97from satellites the sea’s surface caught in the act: from satellites the sea’s surface caught in the act Height Temperature NasaForecasting El Niños: Forecasting El Niños Current forecast from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Modeling Branch. It’s a composite of 16 runs of a dynamic climate model pioneered by Ants Leetmaa and Ming Ji starting in the mid 1980s. Forecasting Impacts: Forecasting Impacts These are CLIMATE forecasts as opposed to weather forecasts. In 1997-98 the forecasts for the U.S. put out by the Center for Climate Prediction were unusually good. The skill of the 2002-2003 forecasts are yet to be determined. Center for Climate Prediction temp precipDress rehearsal for something bigger?: Dress rehearsal for something bigger? “Because of the high economic stakes and greater public awareness… the 1997-98 El Nino is shaping up as something more significant than another mighty misfire of the weather machine. It is also a social experiment that will reveal how people around the world react to climate change that is predictable in its broad outlines but unknowable in its details. {It is] a kind of dress rehearsal for the sort of decision-making we could face in the coming century if, as many…expect, the planet heats up from the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As [one scientist] puts it, "If we don't know how to react to El Nino, how can we react intelligently to something that is far less tangible?” August 18, 1997Or the first act in a long-running play?: Or the first act in a long-running play? A double-stranded narrative The human struggle to survive nature in extremis The scientific struggle to understand something almost unimaginably powerful and large A double-edged question To what extent are we responsible for the calamities that befall us? To what extent are we perturbing primal forces that would best be left alone?A Litany of Disasters each with its own natural & social history: A Litany of Disasters each with its own natural & social history Landslides Rio Nido, California Peru, Ecuador, Brazil Disease Outbreaks East Africa (Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania) New Mexico Malaysia, Singapore Out-of-control fires East Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) Florida Brazil Floods,untimely frosts,crop failures …Landslide: Landslide “In just a few weeks, the LaCombes’ cozy house had become an alien, even hostile place. The air inside smelled dank; freckles of mold crept up the walls; windows wept with mist.” ©Thomas Nash 2002 Rio Nido, CaliforniaEl Niño & Rift Valley fever flooding near Garissa,Kenya: El Niño & Rift Valley fever flooding near Garissa,Kenya C.J. PetersEl Niño & Rift Valley fever mosquitoes, livestock & humans: El Niño & Rift Valley fever mosquitoes, livestock & humans ©Thomas Nash 2002 Tana River, northern KenyaEl Niño & Rift Valley fever torrential rains in East Africa: El Niño & Rift Valley fever torrential rains in East Africa Satellite images show explosive growth of vegetation ndviKalimantan on fire up the Mahakam River: Kalimantan on fire up the Mahakam River Logging the rainforest, Indonesian Borneo Images ©Thomas Nash 2002Slide34: Kalimantan on Fire Rescued rainforest at Wanariset Samboja ESA ©Thomas Nash 2002Fire legacy: orangutan orphans in conflicts with villagers, mothers were killed: Fire legacy: orangutan orphans in conflicts with villagers, mothers were killed Images ©Thomas Nash 2002El Niño: natural or not? A Dayak farmer’s question: El Niño: natural or not? A Dayak farmer’s question Riyanto Rinco at his father-in-law’s death ceremony: Someone offended the spirits, and that was the cause of the drought and the terrible fires that followed. Images ©Thomas Nash 2002El Niño: natural or not? the scientists’ question: El Niño: natural or not? the scientists’ question The 1990s had been atypically rich in El Niños, noted Kevin Trenberth and Timothy Hoar in an article published by Geophysical Research Letters. Was “this pattern…a manifestation of global warming and related climate change associated with increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere or….a natural decadal time-scale variation” that had nothing to do with global warming? Advances in Niñology a forging of larger links: Advances in Niñology a forging of larger links 1800s The El Niño Current & Peru 1920s The Southern Oscillation & India 1960s Coupling of Atmosphere & Ocean 1970s & 1980s Teleconnections 1990s El Niño & global warming???The Past as Prologue coral paleoclimatology : The Past as Prologue coral paleoclimatology “On every side of us swam Sharks innumerable and so voracious that they bit our oars…” James Trevenen, 1777 Richard Grigg, U.Hawaii NASA Kiritimati Atoll, November 1997The Past as Prologue into the heart of El Niño…: The Past as Prologue into the heart of El Niño… “El Niño was …emerging as a metaphor for what happened when something big and powerful pushed the button that controls the big convection engine …in the tropical Pacific.” Richard Grigg, U..Hawaii The Moana WaveThe Past as Prologue tropical ice paleoclimatology: The Past as Prologue tropical ice paleoclimatology ©Thomas Nash 2002 Lonnie Thompson at QuelccayaThe Past as Prologue tropical ice paleoclimatology: The Past as Prologue tropical ice paleoclimatology ©Thomas Nash 2002 Quelccaya Summit Dome, 18,700’Why climate change matters collapse of the Tiwanaku culture: Why climate change matters collapse of the Tiwanaku culture . Images ©Thomas Nash 2002 Lake Titicaca: birthplace of the worldWhy climate change matters rise of militarism at Chan Chan: Why climate change matters rise of militarism at Chan Chan ©Thomas Nash 2002Return to Quelccaya August 2000, dawn at 17,000’: Return to Quelccaya August 2000, dawn at 17,000’ ©Thomas Nash 2002Return to Quelccaya the ice cap is shrinking: Return to Quelccaya the ice cap is shrinking In 1974, this boulder was in contact with the ice. Now the ice is 300 meters away, across the lake. ©Thomas Nash 2002Return to Quelccaya the retreat of Qori Kalis: Return to Quelccaya the retreat of Qori Kalis ©Thomas Nash 2002 Henry Brecher surveys the glacierUnder the Blue Tarp glimpses of an uncertain future: Under the Blue Tarp glimpses of an uncertain future ©Thomas Nash 2002Under the Blue Tarp glimpses of an uncertain future: Under the Blue Tarp glimpses of an uncertain future Incan road cuts through pre-Incan terraces ©Thomas Nash 2002 El Niño in 2002 a new ocean warming : El Niño in 2002 a new ocean warming NOAA /PMEL … after the second warmest year on record…A Writer’s Journey, finis: A Writer’s Journey, finis made it !Amazon: Amazon Barnes & Noble.com - El Nino: Unlocking the S... Barnes and Noble Amazon.com: buying info: El Nino: Unlocking t... Department of Shameless Commerce You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
Nash Lindon Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 68 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: February 20, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript The Writing of El Libro: The Writing of El LibroSlide2: A Writer’s Journey ©Thomas Nash 2002 The Quelccaya Ice Cap : The Quelccaya Ice Cap ©Thomas Nash 2002Why El Niño? the element of surprise: Why El Niño? the element of surprise Surprisingly devastating: 1972-73 El Niño Collapse of Peru’s anchoveta industry leads to turmoil in world commodity markets Surprisingly surprising: 1982-83 El Niño Scientists fail to realize a powerful El Niño is underway until it has almost peaked Surprisingly accurate: 1986 forecast Forecasting El Niño is deemed impossible, but Mark Cane & Steve Zebiak do it anywayWhy El Niño? the element of surprise: Why El Niño? the element of surprise Surprisingly Powerful: 1988-89 La Niña Drought & fires in the American West Surprisingly Unexpected:1990s El Niño(s) New teleconnections Epic floods on the Mississippi Hantavirus in the American Southwest El Niño & corn harvest in Zimbabwe A rise in intensity and frequency due to greenhouse gases? Why El Niño? the personal element : Why El Niño? the personal element A fascination with violent weather Me and hurricanes My grandmother and lightning My mother and tornadoes A feeling of following El Niño around 1996 Coral reef conference in Panama City Rick Fairbanks: El Niño & the monsoon Snorkeling through El Niño-killed corals May 1997 safari in the Okavango Delta El Niño & drought in southern africaSlide7: The collapse of the trade winds triggered dramatic changes in ocean temperatures & sea surface heights Red 30° C Blue 8° C NASA Goddard Space Flight Center El Niño! A slice through the Pacific at the Equator AUGUST 18, 1997 VOL. 150 NO. 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ SCIENCE IS IT EL NINO OF THE CENTURY? SHIFTING OCEAN CURRENTS IN THE PACIFIC COULD TRIGGER DRAMATIC SWINGS IN THE WORLD'S WEATHER BY J. MADELEINE NASH : AUGUST 18, 1997 VOL. 150 NO. 7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ SCIENCE IS IT EL NINO OF THE CENTURY? SHIFTING OCEAN CURRENTS IN THE PACIFIC COULD TRIGGER DRAMATIC SWINGS IN THE WORLD'S WEATHER BY J. MADELEINE NASH Temperatures at the sea's surface have been rising so rapidly that they seem likely to equal those of the notorious El Nino of 1982-83, which left 2,000 people dead and $13 billion in economic losses. "That was the biggest El Nino we know of," says climate modeler Stephen Zebiak of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, "until maybe now." Advances in niñology a regional phenomenon: Advances in niñology a regional phenomenon Images ©Thomas Nash 2002 Peru’s coastal desert & fisheryAdvances in niñology a global phenomenon: Advances in niñology a global phenomenon Wet Dry Warm summer winter El Niño: a geophysical leviathan : El Niño: a geophysical leviathan NOAAPmel in a sea filled with “gentle awful stirrings” Herman Melville, Moby Dick Sir Gilbert Walker, 1868-1957: Sir Gilbert Walker, 1868-1957 Walker was the director of the India Meteorological Dept. for many years. He discovered the vast swaying in the atmosphere known as the Southern Oscillation. Photo courtesy of Eugene RasmussonJacob Bjerknes, 1897-1975: Jacob Bjerknes, 1897-1975 One of the meteorological giants of the 20th century, Bjerknes put the atmosphere and ocean together to form the modern picture of ENSO, the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Photo courtesy of Euene RasmussonENSO : Pressure Darwin,Australia Temperature Equatorial Pacific (Galapagos-Line Islands) From Columbia University Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Website http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/dees/ees/climate/slides/ocean_atm_index.html ENSO Niño 3=90°W-150°W and 5°S- 5°N Klaus Wyrtki in 1949: Klaus Wyrtki in 1949 Wyrtki, now a professor emeritus at the University of Hawaii, added ocean dynamics to the picture. The ocean warms when water in the equatorial Pacific sloshes from west to east.Kelvin & Rossby Waves: Based on http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/dees/ees/climate/slides/ocean_atm_index.html New Guinea Peru Sea Level Higher Sea Level Lower Thermocline deep Kelvin & Rossby WavesSea Level Off the California Coast: Sea Level Off the California Coast http://geopubs.wr.usgs.gov/fact-sheet/fs175-99/El Niño, La Niña & Normal: El Niño, La Niña & Normal Noaa Before satellites & computers hand measurements: Before satellites & computers hand measurements Taking sea surface temperatures off Paita, Peru Reading traditional barometer in Darwin, Australia Images ©Thomas Nash 2002Sea Level, Kelvin Waves & El Niño: Sea Level, Kelvin Waves & El Niño NASASlide21: The TAO Array: the ocean in real time John Kermond, NOAAFrom the TAO Array: From the TAO Array Dec ‘96 Dec ‘97 anomaly actual Dec ‘97from satellites the sea’s surface caught in the act: from satellites the sea’s surface caught in the act Height Temperature NasaForecasting El Niños: Forecasting El Niños Current forecast from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s Climate Modeling Branch. It’s a composite of 16 runs of a dynamic climate model pioneered by Ants Leetmaa and Ming Ji starting in the mid 1980s. Forecasting Impacts: Forecasting Impacts These are CLIMATE forecasts as opposed to weather forecasts. In 1997-98 the forecasts for the U.S. put out by the Center for Climate Prediction were unusually good. The skill of the 2002-2003 forecasts are yet to be determined. Center for Climate Prediction temp precipDress rehearsal for something bigger?: Dress rehearsal for something bigger? “Because of the high economic stakes and greater public awareness… the 1997-98 El Nino is shaping up as something more significant than another mighty misfire of the weather machine. It is also a social experiment that will reveal how people around the world react to climate change that is predictable in its broad outlines but unknowable in its details. {It is] a kind of dress rehearsal for the sort of decision-making we could face in the coming century if, as many…expect, the planet heats up from the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As [one scientist] puts it, "If we don't know how to react to El Nino, how can we react intelligently to something that is far less tangible?” August 18, 1997Or the first act in a long-running play?: Or the first act in a long-running play? A double-stranded narrative The human struggle to survive nature in extremis The scientific struggle to understand something almost unimaginably powerful and large A double-edged question To what extent are we responsible for the calamities that befall us? To what extent are we perturbing primal forces that would best be left alone?A Litany of Disasters each with its own natural & social history: A Litany of Disasters each with its own natural & social history Landslides Rio Nido, California Peru, Ecuador, Brazil Disease Outbreaks East Africa (Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania) New Mexico Malaysia, Singapore Out-of-control fires East Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) Florida Brazil Floods,untimely frosts,crop failures …Landslide: Landslide “In just a few weeks, the LaCombes’ cozy house had become an alien, even hostile place. The air inside smelled dank; freckles of mold crept up the walls; windows wept with mist.” ©Thomas Nash 2002 Rio Nido, CaliforniaEl Niño & Rift Valley fever flooding near Garissa,Kenya: El Niño & Rift Valley fever flooding near Garissa,Kenya C.J. PetersEl Niño & Rift Valley fever mosquitoes, livestock & humans: El Niño & Rift Valley fever mosquitoes, livestock & humans ©Thomas Nash 2002 Tana River, northern KenyaEl Niño & Rift Valley fever torrential rains in East Africa: El Niño & Rift Valley fever torrential rains in East Africa Satellite images show explosive growth of vegetation ndviKalimantan on fire up the Mahakam River: Kalimantan on fire up the Mahakam River Logging the rainforest, Indonesian Borneo Images ©Thomas Nash 2002Slide34: Kalimantan on Fire Rescued rainforest at Wanariset Samboja ESA ©Thomas Nash 2002Fire legacy: orangutan orphans in conflicts with villagers, mothers were killed: Fire legacy: orangutan orphans in conflicts with villagers, mothers were killed Images ©Thomas Nash 2002El Niño: natural or not? A Dayak farmer’s question: El Niño: natural or not? A Dayak farmer’s question Riyanto Rinco at his father-in-law’s death ceremony: Someone offended the spirits, and that was the cause of the drought and the terrible fires that followed. Images ©Thomas Nash 2002El Niño: natural or not? the scientists’ question: El Niño: natural or not? the scientists’ question The 1990s had been atypically rich in El Niños, noted Kevin Trenberth and Timothy Hoar in an article published by Geophysical Research Letters. Was “this pattern…a manifestation of global warming and related climate change associated with increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere or….a natural decadal time-scale variation” that had nothing to do with global warming? Advances in Niñology a forging of larger links: Advances in Niñology a forging of larger links 1800s The El Niño Current & Peru 1920s The Southern Oscillation & India 1960s Coupling of Atmosphere & Ocean 1970s & 1980s Teleconnections 1990s El Niño & global warming???The Past as Prologue coral paleoclimatology : The Past as Prologue coral paleoclimatology “On every side of us swam Sharks innumerable and so voracious that they bit our oars…” James Trevenen, 1777 Richard Grigg, U.Hawaii NASA Kiritimati Atoll, November 1997The Past as Prologue into the heart of El Niño…: The Past as Prologue into the heart of El Niño… “El Niño was …emerging as a metaphor for what happened when something big and powerful pushed the button that controls the big convection engine …in the tropical Pacific.” Richard Grigg, U..Hawaii The Moana WaveThe Past as Prologue tropical ice paleoclimatology: The Past as Prologue tropical ice paleoclimatology ©Thomas Nash 2002 Lonnie Thompson at QuelccayaThe Past as Prologue tropical ice paleoclimatology: The Past as Prologue tropical ice paleoclimatology ©Thomas Nash 2002 Quelccaya Summit Dome, 18,700’Why climate change matters collapse of the Tiwanaku culture: Why climate change matters collapse of the Tiwanaku culture . Images ©Thomas Nash 2002 Lake Titicaca: birthplace of the worldWhy climate change matters rise of militarism at Chan Chan: Why climate change matters rise of militarism at Chan Chan ©Thomas Nash 2002Return to Quelccaya August 2000, dawn at 17,000’: Return to Quelccaya August 2000, dawn at 17,000’ ©Thomas Nash 2002Return to Quelccaya the ice cap is shrinking: Return to Quelccaya the ice cap is shrinking In 1974, this boulder was in contact with the ice. Now the ice is 300 meters away, across the lake. ©Thomas Nash 2002Return to Quelccaya the retreat of Qori Kalis: Return to Quelccaya the retreat of Qori Kalis ©Thomas Nash 2002 Henry Brecher surveys the glacierUnder the Blue Tarp glimpses of an uncertain future: Under the Blue Tarp glimpses of an uncertain future ©Thomas Nash 2002Under the Blue Tarp glimpses of an uncertain future: Under the Blue Tarp glimpses of an uncertain future Incan road cuts through pre-Incan terraces ©Thomas Nash 2002 El Niño in 2002 a new ocean warming : El Niño in 2002 a new ocean warming NOAA /PMEL … after the second warmest year on record…A Writer’s Journey, finis: A Writer’s Journey, finis made it !Amazon: Amazon Barnes & Noble.com - El Nino: Unlocking the S... Barnes and Noble Amazon.com: buying info: El Nino: Unlocking t... Department of Shameless Commerce