Clim Application Water

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Slide1: 

Models for Managing Climate Risk in Water Management Policy Input from Casey Brown and Assis Francisco F. IRI

Slide2: 

Application of Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Water Management

Slide3: 

Managing The Full Range of Variability common assumption of a static policy storage level)

SAHEL: 

SAHEL Sen declividade = 0.64 Mann-Kendall Tau Test s=23 mm s2 = 516 mm2

Sometimes policy is based on a sample that is not representative of the true expectation. From Meko: 

Sometimes policy is based on a sample that is not representative of the true expectation. From Meko Colorado River, western U.S.

From Connie Woodhouse: 

From Connie Woodhouse

Vazão do Rio Colorado em Lees Ferry : 

Vazão do Rio Colorado em Lees Ferry

Precipitação em Fortaleza 1849-2006: 

Precipitação em Fortaleza 1849-2006 Seca 1877 Fortaleza, Brazil

Afluência ao Reservatório Orós: 

Afluência ao Reservatório Orós Fortaleza, Brazil

Correlação das Vazões Afluentes ao Oros e a Temperatura da Superfície do Mar: 

Correlação das Vazões Afluentes ao Oros e a Temperatura da Superfície do Mar A variabilidade hidrológica esta associada a fenômenos climáticos em escala planetária. Fortaleza, Brazil

System Risk Perception: 

System Risk Perception Reservoir Storage (V) in hm3

System Regret in Relation to Perfect Knowledge : 

System Regret in Relation to Perfect Knowledge

Slide14: 

(a): zero flow (b): climatology (d): forecast (c): perfect knowledge (e) forecast – zero flow Reservoir Storage: (a) “Zero Fllow”, (b)”Climatology”, (c)”Perfect Knowledge”, (d)”Forecast”, (e) “forecast-Zero” Plots show storage, from 1912 to 1995

Slide15: 

(a): zero flow (b): climatology (c): perfect knowledge (d): forecast (e): forecast – zero flow Demand Suplly for High and Low Priority and for the system simulated in: (a) “Zero Fllow”, (b)”Climatology”, (c)”Perfect Knowledge”, (d)”Forecast”, (e) “forecast-Zero” total agric (low) urban (high) m3/year

RESERVEOIR STORAGE JULY: 

RESERVEOIR STORAGE JULY

Permanence Curve of Reservoir Storage in July for “Zero Flow”, “Climatology”, “Perfect Knowledge” and “Forecast” : 

Permanence Curve of Reservoir Storage in July for “Zero Flow”, “Climatology”, “Perfect Knowledge” and “Forecast”

Probability of Shortfall will be less than some value in the system. Using the forecast provides the possibility that the shortfall will be less than the shortfall using climatology: 

Probability of Shortfall will be less than some value in the system. Using the forecast provides the possibility that the shortfall will be less than the shortfall using climatology

Relation between the storage in July (hm3) and Volume release between July and December (hm3) for “Zero Flow”, “Climatology”, “Perfect Knowledge” and “Forecast”. : 

Relation between the storage in July (hm3) and Volume release between July and December (hm3) for “Zero Flow”, “Climatology”, “Perfect Knowledge” and “Forecast”.

Slide20: 

CPTEC GCM (T42) Hydrologic Models

Downscaling (Modo Simulação): 

Downscaling (Modo Simulação)

Esquema de Previsão Climática de Vazões: Propoagação de Incertezas “END to END” : 

Esquema de Previsão Climática de Vazões: Propoagação de Incertezas “END to END” Temperatura Superfície do Mar Modelos de Circulação Geral Modelos Climáticos Regionais Correção Estatística “Weather Generation” Modelos Hidrológicos Combinação de Multi-Modelos Previsão de Vazão Calibração/Validação (incerteza parâmetros) Estrutura do Modelo Condições Iniciais Estrutura do Modelo Condições Iniciais Condições Iniciais Estrutura do Modelo

Inflow to Angat Reservoir: 

Inflow to Angat Reservoir 3-months lag correlation (Nino3.4,QJJAS) = -0.20 (Nino3.4,QOND) = -0.51 JJAS – 30% OND – 46% (Arumugam et al., submitted) Another Setting: Near Manilla, Philippines

Seasonal Climate Forecast: Expected skill for a 3-month season: 

Seasonal Climate Forecast: Expected skill for a 3-month season

Slide25: 

Current Reservoir Contents Remaining Water: Agriculture and Hydropower First Priority: Manila Water Urban Centers Low Inflow “Business as Usual”

Reservoir Management: 

Reservoir Management Hydropower Water Delivery Storage Spill Inflows

Slide27: 

Dynamic Rule Curve Inflow Flood

Wet Forecast: 

More Inflow Greater Flood Risk More Release Possible Wet Forecast

Increased Hydropower: 

Increased Hydropower

Irrigation Improvement: 

Irrigation Improvement

Dry Forecast: 

Dry Forecast Less Inflow Less Flood Risk More Storage Possible - but not sufficient

Slide34: 

Irrigated Palay Production in AMRIS 1 – First Semester Harvest (Nov – Mar cropping season/dry) 2 – Second Semester Harvest (Jun – Oct cropping season/wet) 1998 (1) - 86.60 % 1998 (2) - 43.94 % Impacts on Irrigation

Slide35: 

Current Reservoir Contents Remaining Water: Agriculture and Hydropower First Priority: Manila Water Urban Centers Low Inflow “Business as Usual”

Slide36: 

Current Reservoir Contents Probabilistic Inflow Forecast Dry Year Option Contracts Contracts w/ Dry Year Option

Insurance + Contracts: 

Insurance + Contracts

Option Exercise Decision: 

Option Exercise Decision np ? nppp + nipi Observe preseason flows Decide preseason options to exercise Total Cost Observe In-season flows

Water Supply Costs: 

Water Supply Costs

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