Lazarus Suellen

Trends in IFC’s Syndicated Loan Program : Trends in IFC’s Syndicated Loan Program Annual Participants Meetings June 2002 Washington, DC Suellen L. Lazarus


Year in Review: Emerging Market Flows : Year in Review: Emerging Market Flows Investment flows to emerging countries declined: Economic slowdown in the developed countries hurt export economies Sponsors absorbed by issues at headquarters with dampened appetite for emerging market investments Net commitments of private long-term capital to developing countries fell from $226 billion in 2000 to $160 billion in 2001 Inflows to South Africa and Mexico not enough to offset contraction of domestic markets in Turkey and Argentina


Net Flows to Emerging Markets  : Net Flows to Emerging Markets Source: IFC/World Bank


2001 in Review: Private Flows : 2001 in Review: Private Flows Further decline in net commercial bank flows: -$32 billion from -$6 billion in 2000 Equity flows stagnant Some recovery projected in 2002 due to increase in debt flows Decline in equity investment expected for first time


Regional Private Debt Flows to Emerging Markets  : Regional Private Debt Flows to Emerging Markets Source: IIF 2002 * Estimate US$ billions


2003: RECOVERY? : 2003: RECOVERY? Modest recovery predicted in emerging market flows In line with global economic upturn Strong rebound in performance of emerging market bonds/equities EMBI (bonds) up 20% last two quarters EMFI (equities) up 37% last two quarters Credit quality improving in emerging markets


The Year in Review: IFC Syndications : The Year in Review: IFC Syndications Latin America: 64% of new business despite Argentina crisis First deal in Laos Return to Russia and Indonesia Average Spreads up nearly 100bps to 360bps Tenors averaging 7 years, near historical average for IFC B-loans


IFC Loan Signings 1995-02 : IFC Loan Signings 1995-02 3.4 4.3 5.0 4.4 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.8 US$ billions Fiscal Year


Slide9 : Top 21st Century B-loan Participants


New Participants in FY02 : New Participants in FY02 Caterpillar Financial Services Corporation (US) Caja de Ahorros del Mediterraneo (Spain) Ericsson Credit AB (Sweden) International Finance Participation Trust (Canada) IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG (Germany) Macquarie Bank Ltd (Australia)


www.ifcbloans.com launched : www.ifcbloans.com launched


FY03: Strong Pipeline : FY03: Strong Pipeline Total pipeline $2-3 billion for FY03 60%+ of FY03 pipeline in power, oil and gas and infrastructure Brazil pipeline is the largest in years Latin America will continue to dominate syndications activity Need for IFC services in middle income countries is resulting is better quality loans


FY03 Pipeline by Region : FY03 Pipeline by Region


New Signings by Region : New Signings by Region


New Signings by Sector : New Signings by Sector