CCLecture6

Communications & Conflict: 

Communications & Conflict Lecture 6 International Conflicts in the Post Cold War Era: From the Gulf to Kosovo, 1991-99

Agenda: 

Agenda Changing nature of international crises in post Cold War environment International media – ditto? The ‘CNN Effect’ Some Case Studies The impact of the ‘new media’ Some warnings for the future

Slide3: 

TERRORISM The 21st CENTURY ENVIRONMENT? Global Warming +/ Ecological disaster + Creeping Deserts = POPULATION GROWTH + RESOURCE SCARCITY = War over Food, Water, Fish Virtual States WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS: More GNP = More Defense Spending GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE ASYMMETRIC WARFARE DISEASE (AIDS PANDEMIC MALARIA, EBOLA) ETHNO- Religious PAN-NATRIONALISM Changing ALLIANCES: IMPACT OF THE EURO ECO-ASIA INFORMATION WARFARE Sub-National Groups: Russian Mafia, FARC, IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY

Slide4: 

How did we get here?: Main Trends for Military-Media Crisis Management in the Post Cold War Era From inter-state to intra-state conflict From military war-fighting to peacekeeping, peace building and peace support From military-military communications to military-civilian communications Decline of specialised foreign and defence correspondents Increased emphasis on ‘real-time’ reporting From Information Warfare to Information Operations (‘electronic Pearl Harbour’)

Slide5: 

Role of the International Media Increasingly competitive, deregulated ‘infotainment’ market Human Interest stories and the decline of the specialist/rise of the freelancer Easier to ‘manipulate’ within certain ground rules (Gulf War and Kosovo) More difficult to control access to communications technologies

The Media and Crisis: 

The Media and Crisis Bad news is good news Plenty of Human Interest Other People’s Wars and Our Wars Ability/inability to report from dangerous places Event driven rather than issue driven Decline of specialised reporters

Television: its limitations and its power: 

Television: its limitations and its power Picture-driven snapshots (bulletins) The tyrannical growth of real-time (and speculation) The CNN Effect (push vs. pull) ‘Real’ crises and ‘media crises’ Audio-visual mediation not actual reality Hence the media as a target in information warfare (RTS Serbia)

Slide8: 

Media War and Real War Real war is the nasty, brutal, terrifying business of people killing people Media War is not the same thing: it is a mediated event, second-hand, even remote, safe, viewed from a distance The role of the media in bridging this image-reality gap – or not – is therefore crucial to our understanding of media performance, in war but also in peace as well, and increasingly important to the success of ‘military’ operations

Crisis in the Balkans: 

Crisis in the Balkans 1991-95: Bosnia and SFOR 1995: From the ‘safe havens’ to the Dayton Peace Agreement 1995-99: IFOR 1999: Kosovo Conflict Post Kosovo: KFOR

1991-95: Bosnia and SFOR: 

1991-95: Bosnia and SFOR ‘The death of Yugoslavia’ Three sided civil war (Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia) Media coverage: erratic, polarised, simplified – and anti-Serb! Clinton administration policy – to resist the shocking images (from Europe!) especially post Somalia: the journalism of attachment Markele market place and safe havens

The Road to Dayton: 

The Road to Dayton Srebrenica and the humiliation of the ‘safe havens’ policy Evidence suggests the CNN effect finally came to play in influencing air strikes Especially after the failure to intervene in Rwanda genocide Dayton establishes IFOR Record since 1995

The Road to Kosovo: 

The Road to Kosovo Serbia removes autonomy in 1998 KLA vs. MUP and VJ forces: legacy of Bosnia media coverage identifies Serbs as villains Serb ‘genocide’ mobilises media Media coverage mobilises politicians to launch a war of ‘guilty conscience’ for not acting against Serbs over Bosnia

Slide15: 

Some warnings for the future Knowledge explosion Internet has seen 8% of world population log-on WITHIN LAST TEN YEARS Computer power up six orders of magnitude by 2025 Global interconnectivity The developed world is moving to an information based economy---BUT

Slide16: 

What about the Less Developed World? 5.7 billion current population will double in our lifetime 4.5 billion live in poor countries (average per capita GNP about $1K) 35% of population under age 15 Population in LDCs up 143% by 2025 Population under age 15 may exceed 50% in some countries Radio and TV still predominant media

Slide17: 

Increasing Urbanization Half of world population now is urban; two thirds by 2025 27 mega-cities (10M+) by 2015, 24 in less developed world Of 325 cities of 1M+ today, 213 are in less developed world By 2025, Latin America 85%, Africa 58% and Asia 53% urban

Slide18: 

Increasing instability, especially in the Developing World Traditional national sovereignties eroding Religious, tribal and ethnic conflict spreading Guerrilla, paramilitary and criminal groups proliferating Numbers of displaced persons growing The ‘war’ against Terrorism

Crisis!: 

Crisis! Crisis? What Crisis? A crisis that the media covered/created? A crisis that politicians responded to? Media coverage of a crisis that politicians responded to? I.e. image or reality? What kind of world is this?

Slide20: 

More Complex Humanitarian Crises Are Almost Certain Traditional infrastructures (administrative, health & sanitation, water, power, etc.) will continue to erode in third world The global information infrastructure will continue to expand and become more robust Urban centers in the second and third world will function as communication nodes The Whole World is Watching!

Slide21: 

Information Age The ability of any central authority to control information flow will diminish First world policy makers will be increasingly unable to ignore LDC events Global telecommunications will provide scenes that result in policy shifts and turn military operations into improvisational theater

Slide22: 

How do you manage those crises? An integrated information policy (hence IO) Long-term communication of (‘soft’) power Short-term but planned PSYOP and PA/PI activity close to the centre of decision-making Professionalised information activity AND crisis management scenarios Keep within the democratic tradition: a strength and a weakness