The Causes of War: The Causes of War Why do we fight wars? Is it part of the Human Condition? Is it inevitable?


Can we classify the causes of War?: Can we classify the causes of War? The rather artificial hierarchy provided here is structured like Abraham Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Human Instincts Human Needs Human Values Human Thoughts Certain needs are fundamental or instinctual Others are higher order - cognitive


Human Instincts: Human Instincts Survival The Individual level [Is war a function of human nature? ] Does the gene pool change as a result of warfare? Survival (personal fitness - as in survival of the fittest) Inclusive Fitness=- Personal Fitness + Kinship component Kinship groups with a predisposition towards altruism will tend to survive better than a tribe of individuals. Has the individual calculus of war changed? In 1700 life expectancy was quite short - 35 years To go off to war at 18-19 was not as great a risk! The value of human life was self-perceived much differently back then.


Territorial Imperative: Territorial Imperative Do we have an instinct for territory? Ardrey & territory Elevators ? PRT ? Territorial marking Sovereignty Isn’t it territory Peace of Westphalia 1648 ended thirty Years war between major European Powers Right of National self-determination


Aggression: Aggression Aggression - is war a biological urge ? - are submissive behaviors instinctual?


Nature continued: Nature continued Is Warfare a constant of the human condition the Swiss ? classic Ci vis Pacem, Para Bellum.] many generations without war


Power seekers?: Power seekers? Is ther such a thing as Power seeking behavior? biological “high” Epinephrine/norepinephrine The Great Man/Great General hypothesis Are these people different?


Human Needs - Economic Factors: Human Needs - Economic Factors Resources Oil Chaco War - Persian Gulf Gold/Precious Metals & Minerals Wwater Arable soil Protein deficiency ???!!! Population pressure Food


The distribution of resources: The distribution of resources Equity Social cleavages populations submerged (Lithuanians !!) populations divided (Kurds) populations denied (South Africa)


The Economic organization of society: The Economic organization of society Imperialism Declining rate of profit Search for markets and raw materials Economic competition in less developed world will lead to conflict.


Political Organization : Political Organization The Democratic peace Democracies tend to not fight other democracies


Globalization and Other economic issues: Globalization and Other economic issues Free Trade Comparative advantage Interdependence raises costs of conflict & reduces probability of war


Human Values: Human Values Religion Touted as the greatest cause of war Name one! Northern Ireland - No Arab-Israeli - No Iran - Possibly Crusades - Not the 1st Possibly others Spanish conquest – No Current rise of Fundamental Islamic Terrorism - maybe Culture of violence Richardson/Toynbee war-weariness The appeal of war ebbs and flows – cyclical


Human Thoughts: Human Thoughts Perception Language - the tower of Babel Esperanto & Volapuk the two languages couldn't agree on which was best and Volapuk eventually fell apart after an internal dispute over grammar And Esperanto A and Esperanto B advocates couldn’t get along either. Cognition Selective perception Mirror Imaging Cognitive Dissonance


Human Thoughts (cont.): Human Thoughts (cont.) Relative deprivation expectations not met sudden drop in needs acquisition Historical Patterns Soviet and Israeli concerns for safe borders (or is this territoriality cropping up)


Calculation : Calculation Rational Decision Strike while the advantage is with you WWI, WWII, Strike before you loss your 'window of opportunity' Arms Races Success begets adventurism As acquired wealth lowers costs, adventurism becomes more acceptable Saddam Hussein & the Persian Gulf Belief in a swift victory WWI, WWII, Persian Gulf, Iraq


Classic Opportunities: Classic Opportunities Deathwatch Russia, Poland and Denmark invades Sweden in 1700 after death of Karl XI in 1697 (Karl XII was 15) They were all cousins BTW Sweden returns the complement in 1741. Concern over Tito's death in Yugoslavia in 1981-82 (?) Soviet/Russian concerns about Castro & Cuba Scapegoat wars Domestic conflict causes leaders to seek diversion mechanisms Falkands/Malvinas


Human Organization: Human Organization The Structure of the International System Polarity Polarization Long Cycles – Global War


Technology and International Relations: Technology and International Relations Three concepts to keep in mind with the changes in technology Loss-of-strength gradient Offense vs. defense Technology influences the ability of political units to sustain themselves


Paleolithic: Paleolithic Bones, sticks, and rocks Clubs Crude axes & knives Language Command, Control, Communication Fire Fire hardened sticks Preserved food Provided warmth Increased survival rate Larger families – tribal systems The wall smaller # of defenders versus attackers wait prepared this made agriculture "cost-effective“ Rise of towns


Paleolithic Weapons (cont): Paleolithic Weapons (cont) Projectile weapons Spear Arrow Sling Striking weapons Knife Ax Sword Armor Shield Body Armor


Neolithic Weapons: Neolithic Weapons Bronze age – Iron Age Striking weapons Knife Ax Sword Armor Shield Body Armor


Early empires: Early empires Logistics Maps Horses/cavalry Chariots – weapon/transportation system


Greeks: Greeks Military discipline Hierarchical structure – chain of command The Phalanx allowed for protection on the right made attacks predictable The ability to march and maneuver offset this. The Galley Transportation Naval Battles – ram/board Siege weapons Catapults


Roman Empire: Roman Empire Professional soldier discipline Mobility Roads Prohibited castles early on increase in horsemanship Transportation – ride to battle & dismount Stirrups invented by Chinese in 477 AD (?) Made it to Europe in 7th & 8th century Rome forced to allow castles in later days height fortress Europe


Medieval: Medieval Castle construction evolved Cavalry used for sorties Cannon Constantinople 1453


Seapower: Seapower The Galley had been the mainstay of naval weaponry for 2000 years ramming and boarding the traditional maneuver Cannon changed this. up to 40% of the firepower could be used at one time. Sailing speed increased somewhat up until the adoption of steam propulsion and ironclads. – This led to the need for supply bases (ports) which led to a further rash of colonization in the late 1800's


The American Civil War: The American Civil War The trench Railroad Balloon Ironclads


WWI: WWI Machine gun (WWI)- defensive Tank (WWI) The Airplane (WWI) Poison Gas/Chemical weapons Submarine (Invented in Revolutionary War) Radio


WWII: WWII Sub Machine gun – portable, offensive Automobile The aircraft carrier Radar Rocket/missile (WWII) Nuclear weapons (WWII)


Vietnam: Vietnam Helicopter Computers Precision instruments Satellites ICBMs


Persian Gulf/Iraq: Persian Gulf/Iraq Stealth technology Information battlefield Cyber War Unmanned aircraft Predator


All of which leads us to the present: All of which leads us to the present Star Wars NMD Cyber War Weapon system senility Weapon systems age Or become vulnerable and are replaced The proportion of system cost for protection of the system becomes disproportionately large.


Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD): Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD) Begun in previous administrations Nike-Zeus ABM And announced and promoted under Reagan SDI is a defensive concept Concept is the implementation of a defensive shield to protect against ICBMs


Type of SDI systems: Type of SDI systems Energy Weapons Lasers Particle Beams Space bases kinetic energy weapons Rail guns Interceptors Ground based ABM systems ERIS (Exo-atmospheric Reentry Interceptor Subsystem) HEDI (High Endoatmospheric Defense Interceptor)


Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD): Star Wars (Strategic Defense Initiative - NMD) The basics of anti-ballistic missile defense Time Altitude Boost phase 300 - 50 secs 400km Bus Phase 60 - 650 secs Midcourse Phase Reentry Phase


Kinetic energy weapons: Kinetic energy weapons KE weapons work based upon their velocity, and the velocity of the target Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 2000km/sec imparts 2000000gr/sec2 of energy Thus a 1gr bullet traveling at 12000km/sec imparts 72000000gr/sec2 of energy Damage is exponential with velocity


Effort for Full SDI Shield: Effort for Full SDI Shield The magnitude of the support effort required 1. # of satellites since effective range of most systems is 1000km satellites must be in low earth orbit. Therefore on station only 5% of the time 24000/1000 = 24 satellites for 100% coverage If each satellite can hit 140 launch vehicles (or 1400 deployed MIRVs) this means 240 satellites If each satellite requires 3 shuttle/lifter launches @ $100M apiece…


NMD: NMD Ground Based Interceptors (GBIs) Battle Management, Command, Control, and Communications (BMC3), which includes: Battle Management, Command, and Control (BMC2), and In-Flight Interceptor Communications System (IFICS) X-Band Radars (XBRs) Upgraded Early Warning Radar (UEWR) Defense Support Program satellites/Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS)


The Future of War: The Future of War What are the key big ticket items in today’s military? Tanks Aircraft carriers Bombers Fighters Increasingly larger portions of procurement costs of weapons systems are devoted to defense


Weapons systems senility: Weapons systems senility Smart weapons Sensors Increasing load/cost devoted to system defense Cost of M1A1 is ~$4.3M Cost of Hellfire is $50K-200K A SADARM is $7000


Take Aircraft carriers: Take Aircraft carriers Where most effective… Close support in coastal waters Most vulnerable Anti-ship missiles (e.g. Exocet) Aircraft – 50% + used for carrier defense Mines Cost is ~$6B


What Next?: What Next? Increasing miniaturization Increasing broadband information processing Nanotechnology


Slide47: Over the next century look for: The End of the Gunboat The End of the Carrier The End of the Tank The End of the Submarine The End of the Manned Combat Aircraft Sensors, stand-off capability, and troop mobility


The Evolution of Weapons Systems: The Evolution of Weapons Systems Think in terms of Adaptation Survival of fittest Environmental niches