2006 poll pp may2

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll  Mid-Year Report on Mid-Term ElectionsHouse 2006 and President 2008 Polls: 

Cook Political Report/ RT Strategies Poll Mid-Year Report on Mid-Term Elections House 2006 and President 2008 Polls National Journal Briefing 11 am May 2, 2006 (NOTE: In solidarity with yesterday’s events, we analyze these polls without focusing on immigrant subgroups.) REPORT President 2008 Election RT Strategies, LLC 99 Canal Center, Suite 400  Alexandria, VA 22314 571-721-0201 www.rtstrategies.com House 2006 Election

What is an omnibus poll?: 

What is an omnibus poll? A multi-client study where Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll questions go first RT Strategies determines “standard questions” Other clients may release results for their questions on the same omnibus under the name of their organization Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll is not associated with those other polls on the same omnibus, so don’t ask Charlie about them House 2006 Election Conducted April 27-30, 2006 Conducted Dec. 8-11, 2005, Feb. 23-26, 2006 and Apr. 6-9, 2006 N=1,000 adults nationwide, Margin of Error + 3.1% President 2008 Election President 2008 Election House 2006 Election

Exit Poll Style:Percentage Choosing Each as Top Issue: 

Exit Poll Style: Percentage Choosing Each as Top Issue House 2006 Election

Beyond Exit Poll Style:Percentage Highly Motivated to Vote Among Those Choosing Each as Top Issue: 

House 2006 Election Beyond Exit Poll Style: Percentage Highly Motivated to Vote Among Those Choosing Each as Top Issue

Congressional Control Partisan Preference Among Those Choosing Each as Top Issue: 

House 2006 Election D 19 – R 79 D 66 – R 23 D 31 – R 47 D 51 – R 32 D 54 – R 30 D 58 – R 29 D 48 – R 38 Overall Preference for Control of Congress: D-48% to R-37% Congressional Control Partisan Preference Among Those Choosing Each as Top Issue

Congressional Control Partisan Preference Among Those Choosing Each as Top Issue: 

House 2006 Election R +60 D +43 R +16 D +19 D +24 D +29 D +10 Control of Congress: D +11 Congressional Control Partisan Preference Among Those Choosing Each as Top Issue

Party Control Preference2006 Congressional Election: 

Party Control Preference 2006 Congressional Election Add it all up and Dems have a 48%-37% advantage That D +11 advantage has not changed much since February (D +9), January (D +12) or December (D +11) Historically, that’s a large advantage House 2006 Election

Opportunities for Dems and Reps: 

Opportunities for Dems and Reps House 2006 Election R +60 D +43 R +16 D +19 D +24 D +29 D +10 DEMOCRATS’ STRATEGY Choice on: Domestic Oppt’y Separate on education policy Motivate Economy Voters HOPE A DEM CONGRESS HARNESSES OPPORTUNITY IN THE U.S. NOT the Anger Point over Gas Prices REPUBLICANS’ STRATEGY Choice on: Defend America Succeed on immigration Motivate Traditional Voters FEAR THE LOSS OF A REPUBLICAN CONGRESS WILL BRING THE WRONG CHANGE

Slide9: 

If Dems Were in Charge…. Bush Approval Ratings Among Those Who Think… House 2006 Election …Bush Approval How January Poll Raised Doubts on “Culture of Corruption” January Overall Bush Approval: 47% Approve 50% Disapprove

Three Other Ways to View House Vote: 

Role of Bush in House Vote House 2006 Election Three Other Ways to View House Vote House Member Re-Elect Partisan Vote Intentions Voters twice as likely to punish Bush as they are to support Bush with House vote (but half say Bush plays no role) Independents twice as likely to support Democrats as Republicans for the House (but almost half of Ind’s don’t vote party) Nationwide, only one-in-five definitely want to re-elect their House member

Bush Job Approval Ratings: 

At 50% Strong Dissapprove, Bush has gone to a place where recovery is difficult At the other end of the scale, Bush core support has dropped from one-in-four to one-in-five. Historically, that’s hard on the President’s party in a midterm House 2006 Election Bush Job Approval Ratings President 2008 Election

Looking Ahead to 2008: 

Looking Ahead to 2008 I. This Administration’s relevance for legislative policy-making may be over Bush is down to GOP base or below it Strong Disapprove is high in Northeast and Pacific Bush protest vote is building Two coasts, high-turnout voters, and Dems Few factional divisions in either party 2008 primary choices among hypothetical candidates shows how well the frontrunners are doing reaching out to all factions Presidential Primary positions today Hillary is the Big Only for the Dems 2008 General Election Building toward the World Series (Hillary vs. McCain) President 2008 Election

The Democratic Factions in 2008From December 8-11, 2005 Poll : 

The Democratic Factions in 2008 From December 8-11, 2005 Poll President 2008 Election

The Republican Factions in 2008 (12/05): 

The Republican Factions in 2008 (12/05) President 2008 Election

Republican 2008 PrimaryWith and Without Giuliani (12/05): 

Republican 2008 Primary With and Without Giuliani (12/05) President 2008 Election

The World Series 2008April 6-9, 2006 Poll: 

The World Series 2008 April 6-9, 2006 Poll And now looking ahead to the 2008 election for President, if that election were today and the candidates were (ROTATE) - Hillary Clinton, the Democrat or John McCain, the Republican-for whom would you vote? All Adults McCain 44% Clinton 39% Other/Undecided 17% President 2008 Election

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Polls2006 : 

Cook Political Report/ RT Strategies Polls 2006 RT Strategies, Inc. 99 Canal Center, Suite 400  Alexandria, VA 22314 571-721-0201 www.rtstrategies.com