The Geopolitics of Demographic Decay

The Geopolitics of Demographic Decay: 

The Geopolitics of Demographic Decay HIV/AIDS and Russia’s Great Power Status

We are facing the serious threat of turning into a decaying nation.– Russian President Vladimir Putin: 

We are facing the serious threat of turning into a decaying nation. – Russian President Vladimir Putin

Russia’s Post-Cold WarGrand Strategy: 

Russia’s Post-Cold War Grand Strategy Since the mid-1990s Russia has sought to restore its international status as a great power and the “guarantor of peace and stability” in the former Soviet Union.

Russia’s Socioeconomic Crisis: 

Russia’s Socioeconomic Crisis Russia’s staggering drug use, endemic poverty, and collapsing health care system make it a prime candidate for an HIV/AIDS explosion, with serious socio-economic and strategic implications.

Central Question: 

Central Question How will HIV/AIDS affect Russia’s security interests and status in the international system?

Findings: 

Findings Russia is a ‘next wave’ HIV/AIDS country; The Russian government is not dealing effectively with the HIV/AIDS issue; The impact of HIV/AIDS in Russia will be dramatic and widespread; Russia will find it increasingly difficult to play the great power role because of HIV/AIDS.

Importance of the Topic: 

Importance of the Topic Russian foreign policy agenda will be deeply affected by HIV/AIDS; HIV/AIDS will seriously deepen Russia’s socio-economic problems; Russia’s strategic location at the heart of Eurasia; HIV/AIDS linked to ‘state failure’ and ‘instability’ -- the latter defined as ‘revolutionary wars, ethnic wars, genocides, and disruptive regime transitions’ .

HIV/AIDS in Russia:the Stats: 

HIV/AIDS in Russia: the Stats

Factors Mitigating Optimism: 

Factors Mitigating Optimism Relatively Recent Epidemic; Russia has a Declining Population; One of the Highest Infection Rates; Attention on Geopolitical Issues; Lack of Willingness to Address Problem; Young Population; Spread from High Risk to General Population; Self-Perpetuating Factors.

Factors Causing Spread of HIV/AIDS in Russia: 

Factors Causing Spread of HIV/AIDS in Russia Erosion of Social Norms/constraints; Greater Geographic Mobility; Healthcare Crisis; Intravenous Drug Use; Widespread Prostitution; Prison Populations & Amnesties; Government Resistance/Neglect of Problem.

Prerequisites forGreat Power Status: 

Prerequisites for Great Power Status Societal Stability Economic Strength Military Effectiveness

Societal Stability: 

Societal Stability The ability of a society – as defined by its government, social networks, culture, economy, etc. – to perpetuate itself and improve the quality of life for its citizens.

Societal Stability:Issues of Concern for Russia: 

Societal Stability: Issues of Concern for Russia Stable Population Effective Government Institutions Self-Perpetuating Nature of HIV/AIDS Peaceful Ethnic Relations

Economic Strength: 

Economic Strength Absolute Decline in the Labor Supply Decline in Individual Worker Productivity Reduced Private Savings and Capital Formation Increasing Treatment Costs

Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS in: 

Economic Impact of HIV/AIDS in

Military Effectiveness:Risk Factors for Soldiers: 

Military Effectiveness: Risk Factors for Soldiers Average Age; Loneliness; Recklessness; Reliance on Prostitution; ‘Ethos of Risk Taking’ Armed Forces mirror society – crime, IV drug use, hazing, inadequate health care, prostitution.

Military Effectiveness:Impact: 

Military Effectiveness: Impact Need for additional recruits; Increased staffing problems for specialized staff and officers; Increased absenteeism and heavier workloads for healthy soldiers; Reduced morale; Fear of caring for injured soldiers; Civilian-military disputes.

Geopolitical Impact of HIV/AIDSin Russia: 

Geopolitical Impact of HIV/AIDS in Russia Increasing tensions between ambitions and ability; Russia will no longer play a stabilizing role in the former Soviet Union; Problems for the Russo-Chinese relationship; Changes in ethnic balance in Russia.

Slide22: 

Either Russia will be a great power or it will not exist at all. – Russian President Vladimir Putin

Thank You!Thomas AmbrosioNorth Dakota State Universitythomas.ambrosio@ndsu.edu: 

Thank You! Thomas Ambrosio North Dakota State University thomas.ambrosio@ndsu.edu