Nilson

Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia: 

Greenhouse Gas Balance of Russia GCP Regional Carbon Budgets WS Beijing, China, 15-18 Nov. 2004 S. Nilsson,a E.A. Vaganov,b V.A. Rozhkov,b A. Shvidenko,a V. Stolbovoi,a I. McCallum,a M. Jonas,a and M. Obersteinera (a IIASA; b Russia) 1

Full Carbon Accounting for Russia (1988–1992): 

Full Carbon Accounting for Russia (1988–1992) 5

Slide3: 

Some layers of the Integrated Land Information System

Slide4: 

Terrestrial Full Corg Balance for Russia (1988–1992) V NPP: 4354 ( 118) Con: 682 (41) RO: 62 (14) HR + Ant: 4026 ( 131) SRO: 9 (3) 306 (156) H 62 (14) L 20 (7) A 351 -(176) Dis: 143 (16) P -38 -(155) Det: 3222 (93) HR: 3201 (123) Leak: 20 (7) URO: 50 (13) Dep: 23 (7) Dep_H: 3 (1) Dep_P: 20 (7) CSRO: 12 (4) DOS: 70 (15) Plab: -69 -(±155) Pstab: 31 (±9) 6

Slide5: 

CARBON FLUXES tC/ha tC/ha Vegetational Fluxes (1990) Soil Fluxes (1990) 23

Total N2O 1990: 

Total N2O 1990 15 Total Emissions 0.64 Tg N2O

CH4 1990: 

CH4 1990 Big variation in the fossil emission in 1990: 5–16 Tg CH4 16 Total Emissions 48 Tg CH4

Slide8: 

CO2 CH4 N2O Combined GHG GWP Effect Global Warming Potentials in CO2 Equivalents over 100 Year Time Horizon of Terrestrial Emissions and Fossil Fuels of Russia in 1990 Global Warming Potentials in Tg (CO2 equivalents) 1990 17 Nature neutralizing ~20% of industrial emissions

Slide9: 

Terrestrial Sink Strength [PgC yr-1] Russian Terrestrial FCA: 1988–1992 Average Annual Atmospheric Sink Strength -0.35 ± 0.10 (This Study, 2003) -0.15 ± 0.12 (Nilsson et al., 2000) 7

Conclusions for 1990 Estimates: 

Conclusions for 1990 Estimates Modified systems view with respect to soils and inclusion of more detailed lateral and horizontal fluxes resulted in doubling the net terrestrial sink capacity. Combination of process based methods with inventories The assessment of the atmospheric/terrestrial exchange is sensitive to small changes in surface and sub-surface fluxes The uncertainties are substantially reduced Underlining the need for thorough and full accounting including all fluxes 8

Slide11: 

Top down ….. Bottom Up (cit. Daniel Muridiyarso)

Up Scaling of the Terrestrial Sink Strength Bottom-up Results for Russia: 

Up Scaling of the Terrestrial Sink Strength Bottom-up Results for Russia Inverse Modeling Northern Extra-tropical Eurasia -1.45 - 0.79 Up Scaled Bottom-up Values Northern Extra-tropical Eurasia -1.22 - 0.77 Valid for the Northern Extra-tropical Region PgC•yr-1 9

Conclusions: 

Conclusions Our full C account of Russia is closer to atmospheric inversion than existing C inventory + model techniques Combined top down–bottom up based approach has smaller uncertainties than pure top down approach The combination of bottom up (FCA) with top down (atmospheric inversion) is the way to achieve ultimate verification No “Missing Sink” 10

Trends in Total Carbon (TgC) Emissions in Russia 1988–2002: 

Trends in Total Carbon (TgC) Emissions in Russia 1988–2002 Fossil Total Terrestrial TgC -351 -689 -518 25

Slide15: 

Vegetation fire in Russia in 1971-2002

INSECTS & DISEASES OUTBREAKS IN RUSSIAN FORESTS (MILLION HA): 

INSECTS & DISEASES OUTBREAKS IN RUSSIAN FORESTS (MILLION HA)

Carbon D Fluxes (Tg C): 

Carbon D Fluxes (Tg C)

Summarized assessment of C fluxes due to disturbances for 1961-2002 (Tg C yr-1): 

Summarized assessment of C fluxes due to disturbances for 1961-2002 (Tg C yr-1) Logging and forest products 83.1 [56 to 99] Veg Fire (direct emissions) 69.7 [12 to 229] Veg Fire (post D emissions) 68.9 [62 to 81] Veg Fire – total 138.6 [81to 303] Biotic 75.7 [62 to 89] Abiotic 27.5 [16-36] Overall total 325 [262 to 479]

Facit: 

Facit Bringing the biosphere into a carbon trading system adds substantial uncertainty and risk Lemmons market Compliance in a stochastic environment

Classification of D in boreal forests: 

Classification of D in boreal forests Climatic Geomorpho- genic Biogenic Pyrogenic Anthropogenic Genus Type Pollution Industrial Land Transformation Forest Management

MODELLING OF CARBON FLUXES DUE TO DISTURBANCE TO THE ATMOSPHERE : 

MODELLING OF CARBON FLUXES DUE TO DISTURBANCE TO THE ATMOSPHERE Total carbon flux caused by disturbance r during year t1 TCFr,t1 = DFr,t1 + PDFr,t<t1, where DFr,t1 is direct emission during year t1, and PDFr,t<t1 is post disturbance biogenic flux