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Global Warming: the Science, the Impacts and the Politics: 

Global Warming: the Science, the Impacts and the Politics John Houghton University of California, Irvine 20 February 2003

The Science of Global Warming: 

The Science of Global Warming

Slide4: 

Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 1,000 years SPM 1b

The Greenhouse Effect: 

The Greenhouse Effect Solar radiation Long-wave radiation

Slide7: 

Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times Carbon dioxide: 33% rise Methane: 100% rise The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research. BW 5

The last 160,000 years (from ice cores) and the next 100 years: 

The last 160,000 years (from ice cores) and the next 100 years Time (thousands of years) 160 120 80 40 Now –10 0 10 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 CO2 in 2100 (with business as usual) Double pre-industrial CO2 Lowest possible CO2 stabilisation level by 2100 CO2 now Temperature difference from now °C CO2 concentration (ppm)

The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect: 

The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Solar (S) and longwave (L) radiation in Wm-2 at the top of the atmosphere S L 236 236 T = -18°C S L 236 232 CO2 x 2 S L 236 236 CO2 x 2 S L 236 236 CO2 x 2 + Feedbacks H2O (+60%) Ice/Albedo (+20%) Cloud? Ocean? TS = 15°C TS = 15°C DTS ~ 1.2K DTS ~ 2.5K

Slide11: 

IPCC Synthesis Report

Estimated solar irradiance variations 1750-2000: 

Estimated solar irradiance variations 1750-2000

Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures : 

Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures

The climate system: 

The climate system

The effect of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption (June 1991) on global temperature: 

The effect of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption (June 1991) on global temperature

The Impacts of Global Warming: 

The Impacts of Global Warming

Contributions to sea level rise (metres), 1990-2100 : 

Contributions to sea level rise (metres), 1990-2100 ESTIMATED FOR IS92a SCENARIO Thermal Expansion 0.28 Glaciers 0.16 Greenland 0.06 Antarctica –0.01 TOTAL 0.49

Slide19: 

Sea-level transgression scenarios for Bangladesh Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).

Slide20: 

People at Risk from a 44 cm sea-level rise by the 2080s Assuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection

Projected changes in annual temperatures for the 2050s: 

Projected changes in annual temperatures for the 2050s The projected change in annual temperatures for the 2050s compared with the present day, when the climate model is driven with an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations equivalent to about 1% increase per year in CO2 The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research. BW 11

Slide22: 

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Total use Agricultural use Industrial use Domestic use km 3 /year (from Shiklomanor (1988)) Global water use, 1900–2000

Slide23: 

Irrigated cropland appears red in this satellite photograph, made over the Nile where it flows through the Sudan. In the past 70 years, a variety of irrigation projects have increased the agricultural productivity of this dry region. More than half of the increase in the world’s agricultural productivity during the past few decades has come from irrigation. From PR Crosson and NJ Rosenberg, 1989

Changes in rainfall with doubled CO2 (CSIRO model): 

Changes in rainfall with doubled CO2 (CSIRO model) >25.6 Daily rainfall class (mm day –1 ) 0.2-0.4 0.4-0.8 0.8-1.6 1.6-3.2 3.2-6.4 6.4-12.8 12.8-25.6 160 140 120 80 60 40 20 0 –20 100 Change in frequency (%) 40°N 40°S Australian land points

Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8mm): 

Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8mm) Karl et al. 1996 BW 7

Slide27: 

The 1997/98 El Niño - strongest on record *As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature (relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the eastern tropical Pacific off Peru BW 14

Slide28: 

Country or region Refugees (millions) Bangladesh 15 Egypt 14 China 30 India Other Delta Areas and Coastal Zones 10 Island States 1 Agriculturally-Dislocated Areas 50 Total 150 Country or region Refugees (millions) Bangladesh 15 Egypt 14 China 30 India Other Delta Areas and Coastal Zones 10 Island States 1 Agriculturally-Dislocated Areas 50 Total 150 Estimate (after Myers) of environmental refugees in a greenhouse-affected world (by ~2050) 30

Slide29: 

IPCC Synthesis Report

What can we do about Global Warming?: 

What can we do about Global Warming?

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report 2001 : 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report 2001 Scientific assessment includes: Summary for Policymakers (SPM) 20 pages Technical Summary (TS) 60 pages 14 chapters 780 pages prepared by 123 Co-ordinating Lead Authors & Lead Authors, 516 Contributing Authors, 21 Review Editors & 420 Expert Reviewers.. SPM agreed ‘line by line’ at Plenary Intergovernmental Meeting at Shanghai, January 2001, with delegates from 99 countries and 50 scientists representing the Lead Authors.

IPCC Website: 

IPCC Website http://www.ipcc.ch

UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Rio de Janeiro : June 1992 ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE : 

UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE Rio de Janeiro : June 1992 ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention .... is to achieve, .… stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient : to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change. to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel: 

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel Global carbon emissions from fossil fuel use, 1850 to 1990, and for scenarios to 2100, in GtC. For each scenario, the range shows the difference between gross and net emissions. From IIASA/WEC Global Energy Perspectives 1998.

Four Principles governing International Agreements : 

Four Principles governing International Agreements Precautionary Principle Principle of Sustainable Development Polluter Pays Principle Principle of Equity

Carbon Emissions per capita per annum in 2000 (tonnes C): 

Carbon Emissions per capita per annum in 2000 (tonnes C) USA 5.5 UK 2.5 China 0.7 India 0.3 World Average 1.0

Slide38: 

Carbon dioxide contraction for 450 ppm & convergence by 2030 to globally equal per capita emissions rights

Saving Energy in Buildings: 

Saving Energy in Buildings Use of white surfaces to reduce air conditioning Low-energy lighting Better insulation and control of space heating More efficient appliances

Important Energy Technologies: 

Important Energy Technologies Renewable Technologies Wind – onshore & offshore Marine – wave and tidal Energy Crops Energy from Waste PV Solar Other Technologies Combined Heat and Power Carbon Sequestration Fuel Cells Hydrogen fuel infrastructure Decentralised or Local Generation

Biomass: 

Biomass

Slide44: 

Car battery Refrigerator T.V. Light Solar cell array ~1m2 ~100 W peak power Local solar energy supply + -

Slide45: 

Energy Supply: Shell Scenario Sustained Growth Scenario Source: Shell International Limited.

COST OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS Estimated Cost of 60% reduction by 2050 : 

COST OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS Estimated Cost of 60% reduction by 2050 On assumption of average economic growth at historic annual rate of 2.25%, estimated loss of 0.02% from the growth rate equivalent to loss of 6 months’ GDP growth over 50 yrs UK govt Policy Innovation Unit Energy Review 2002 para 7.115

Slide47: 

~1% GNP (DCs) ~2-5% GNP (LDCs) Plus other less quantifiable but important impacts Move to Sustainable Consumption <1% GNP Cost of impacts ~1% GNP (DCs) ~2-5% GNP (LDCs) Plus other less quantifiable but important impacts Action required Energy efficiency and conservation Change to non-fossil-fuel energy sources Aforestation & Limit deforestation Cost of action <1% GNP GLOBAL WARMING

Global Warming Presents a Challenge to:: 

Global Warming Presents a Challenge to: scientists industry and technologists governments everybody

Message from Industry: 

Message from Industry “No single company or country can solve the problem of climate change. It would be foolish and arrogant to pretend otherwise. But I hope we can make a difference - not least to the tone of the debate - by showing what is possible through constructive action.” John Browne, BP, Berlin, 30 September 1997

Slide50: 

Reasons for optimism - Commitment of scientific community - Necessary technology available - God’s commitment to his creation

Slide51: 

‘Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could only do a little’ Edmund Burke

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