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CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER MANAGEMENT : VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION : case study of Bangladesh : 

CLIMATE CHANGE AND WATER MANAGEMENT : VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION : case study of Bangladesh   AINUN NISHAT Country Representative IUCN- The World Conservation Union Bangladesh Country Office

Some activities of IUCN: 

Some activities of IUCN IUCN-IISD-SEI-B Task force on Climate change adaptation Dialogue on Water and Climate Change Bangladesh Country level activity Activity in Mekong region

IUCN-IISD-SEI-B Task force: 

IUCN-IISD-SEI-B Task force The purpose of the Task Force is to advise on the role of environmental tools to add adaptive capacity to cope with climate related disasters. Why adaptation? Can vulnerability be reduced by enhancing adaptation. How will bringing the fields disaster management, climate change, natural resources management, poverty alleviation facilitate this process? Develop understanding on the current climate change adaptation regime How adaptation is being handled at different level. Who are the main actors and how do achieve coordination

Dialogue on Climate change and water : IUCN Bangladesh activity: 

Dialogue on Climate change and water : IUCN Bangladesh activity Objective of the national dialogue: Sensitization of all stake-holders Development of adaptation strategy through participatory approach Set up bench marks Prepare a country level study for the recently launched “ Dialogue on Climate Change and Water” and present it at the World Water Forum-III.

Dialogue on Climate change and water : IUCN Bangladesh activity: 

Dialogue on Climate change and water : IUCN Bangladesh activity Step-1 Understand the problem Study existing policies and practices Step-2 Adapt to what is already there Various policies Step-3 Look toward future New management approaches Institutional capacity building

Some information on Bangladesh: 

Some information on Bangladesh The economy of the country is strongly dependent on the agriculture sector. The country strives for food security and self- sufficiency in food-grain. Population density: about 1000 persons per sq.km. Population growth rate: still very high (about 2%). In recent years, Bangladesh has been self- sufficient in food-grain production. Cropping pattern is dependent on climatic parameters. Water management and agriculture is closely inter-linked.

Information on Bangladesh ( contd….): 

Information on Bangladesh ( contd….) Bangladesh is a flat deltaic land. Long coast line (710 km.) with low lying coastal flood plain vulnerable to inundation by storm surges. Ganges- Brahmaputra-Meghna carries huge monsoon flow; 92% of total runoff is generated outside its political borders.

Slide8: 

Crop calendar and water regime of Bangladesh

National Water Management Planand climate variability: 

National Water Management Plan and climate variability A National Water Management Plan NWMP, is presently under preparation. The Development Strategy of the NWMP (June 2001), recognizes that “knowledge gap” on potential impacts of climate change is a major challenge in NWMP finalization.

Climate variability and its implications for NWMP : 

Climate variability and its implications for NWMP In broad terms evaporation to precipitation ratios are expected to rise progressively. This would require an increase in irrigation water requirements unless offset by diversification towards dry-foot crops. Groundwater resources may be little affected, but dry season trans-boundary flows will reduce.

Impact of climate variability (contd…): 

Impact of climate variability (contd…) Main river flooding may increase in duration. A sea level rise of 0.5m by 2050 would exacerbate drainage congestion. Flash flooding will be more frequent. Frequency of tropical cyclones in the coastal belt will increase. Storm surge depths will increase. Accretion of new coastal lands may be slower.

Impact of climate variability (contd…): 

Impact of climate variability (contd…) Dry seasons will have less rainfall. Erratic behavior of weather. Short duration rainfalls may create drainage congestions specially in urban areas.

Likely changes in evapo-transpiration: 

Likely changes in evapo-transpiration

Likely changes in monthly average rainfall: 

Likely changes in monthly average rainfall

Changes in average monthly temperature: 

Changes in average monthly temperature

Change in Evapo-transpiration rate: 

Month ET.-Baseyear ET.-2025 ET.-2025 (mm) (mm) (mm) January 75.7 77.3 83.3 February 86.5 91.0 95.7 March 134.9 137.6 148.4 April 156.6 169.7 177.4 May 156.8 170.9 179.3 June 120.5 139.0 128.9 July 113.3 108.1 111.3 August 117.1 102.4 113.3 September 109.3 100.3 101.5 October 110.9 116.9 120.3 November 87.5 83.9 84.6 December 74.6 74.5 75.7 YEAR 1334.5 1371.5 1419.83 Note: ET. represent average monthly values. Change in Evapo-transpiration rate

Pathway of impacts in dry season: 

Pathway of impacts in dry season

Pathway of impacts in monsoon months: 

Pathway of impacts in monsoon months

Towards Adaptation : 

Towards Adaptation Will we find solution in old and traditional cropping pattern Should we go for new varieties of seed Indigenous varieties of crop/ rice could provide solution Can we have reliable long term ( say 3-4 month lead time). Otherwise it may not be of much use for farmers. What will be the impacts on open water fisheries sector, spawning is related to climatic parameters. Due climate variability Bangladesh would require lots of adjustments in present day water management approaches.