ggg999talkFinal

Population, Affluence and the Human Future:An Astronomer’s Perspective : 

1 Sept. 6, 2009 Population, Affluence and the Human Future:An Astronomer’s Perspective Jonathan F. Ormes University of Denver September 6, 2009 jformes@comcast.net Credits: Prof. Albert Bartlett, U. of Colo. Dr. John Turner, NREL Dr. Michael King, GSFC Dr. Compton Tucker, GSFC Rev. Chris Schriner, retired

Everything evolves : 

Sept. 6, 2009 2 Everything evolves The universe Galaxies The sun Planets Earth Biota on Earth Home sapiens It is natural to evolve: birth, life, death. Evolution has all kinds of time scales.

Quiz : 

Sept. 6, 2009 3 Quiz What time horizon should we expect for humans? 10, 100, 1000, 10,000, million, billion years What population growth rate is sustainable (in %/year)? 1.18 (current), 1.00, 0.5, 0.25, 0.1, 0.0, -0.1, -0.5 What standard of living should be the norm? USA, China, India, Canada, Bangladesh, Monaco

Humans are an incredibly adaptive species. We are successful in controlling and exploiting our environment because of our brains. We have evolved in a time of stable climate. But because we are so successful we are having a negative impact back on the planet. We are fouling our own nest. Can we figure out how to clean it up?Can we adapt to a new environment?Can we survive a mass extinction? : 

Sept. 6, 2009 4 Humans are an incredibly adaptive species. We are successful in controlling and exploiting our environment because of our brains. We have evolved in a time of stable climate. But because we are so successful we are having a negative impact back on the planet. We are fouling our own nest. Can we figure out how to clean it up?Can we adapt to a new environment?Can we survive a mass extinction?

Outline : 

Sept. 6, 2009 5 Outline Two reminders The electromagnetic spectrum Exponential function (thanks to A. Bartlett) Birth, life and death of stars and planets Population Affluence Future

Powers of ten and light : 

Sept. 6, 2009 6 Powers of ten and light

Exponential growth – understand it!The economy runs on it! Powers of 2 – doubling time : 

Sept. 6, 2009 7 Exponential growth – understand it!The economy runs on it! Powers of 2 – doubling time 1=20 2=21 4=22 8=23 16=24 32=25 64=26 100=26.64385 128=27 256=28 512=29 1024=210 4096=212 65,536=216 4,294,967,296=232 1.844674x1019=264 N and n are dimensionless % are scaled 100x Rule of 70 (100*0.693): If you have an annual interest rate i, the time to double your money is 70years/i e.g. 7% interest, double your money in 10 years 264=18,446,740,000,000,000,000 k=103 M=106 G=109 T=1012 P=1015 E=1018 Z=1021 Y=1024

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Sept. 6, 2009 8

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Sept. 6, 2009 9

What are we made of? : 

Sept. 6, 2009 10 What are we made of?

The Constellation Orion : 

Sept. 6, 2009 11 The Constellation Orion

Orion Nebula : 

Sept. 6, 2009 12 Orion Nebula

Stellar nursery : 

Sept. 6, 2009 13 Stellar nursery

Another stellar nursery: the Snowflake Cluster : 

Sept. 6, 2009 14 Another stellar nursery: the Snowflake Cluster

A Star is Born : 

Sept. 6, 2009 15 A Star is Born Pretty, but not Judy Garland.

The HR diagram is named after astronomers Hertzsprung and Russel who developed it in 1910.Sun will last 11 B yrs50 x Mo 10 M yrs100 x Mo 1 M yrs : 

Sept. 6, 2009 16 The HR diagram is named after astronomers Hertzsprung and Russel who developed it in 1910.Sun will last 11 B yrs50 x Mo 10 M yrs100 x Mo 1 M yrs

Stellar death : 

Sept. 6, 2009 17 Stellar death Stars build the elements, especially in their death throes Stellar death recycles stellar ashes to the interstellar medium New stars are made with heavy nuclei First generation stars had no heavy nuclei They were larger and lived only a short time

Protoplanetary Disks : 

Sept. 6, 2009 18 Protoplanetary Disks

Energy : 

19 Sept. 6, 2009 Energy The sun’s energy gave us fossil fuels. Stars that lived before the sun produced our nuclear fuels and the elements of which we are made. We and our planetary home are true “star children”. The sun is truly worthy of our worship.

Earth’s history : 

Sept. 6, 2009 20 Earth’s history Planet formed in few million years

Population : 

21 Sept. 6, 2009 Population Hominids first appeared in the Neogene Period, about 3.5 M years ago. Identifiable cultures started about 11,000 years ago. Growing at 1.12%/year today.

World population through history : 

Sept. 6, 2009 22 World population through history Abrahamic Era

Population doubling : 

Sept. 6, 2009 23 20th Century growth rate was “super exponential” Partially driven by increasing life span Population doubling We are a highly successful species.

Slide 24: 

Sept. 6, 2009 24 Maybe too successful for our own good!

Population growth rate is declining : 

Sept. 6, 2009 25 Population growth rate is declining Today is it 1.12%/year Some good news! www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldgraph.php

Population growth rate : 

Sept. 6, 2009 26 Population growth rate Today is it 1.12%/year Some good news! >8 billion in 2055 20% more people 3/4 will be > 67 years old “Great leap forward” in China Improved health This change represents an 18% difference, or another 1.5 billion people.

Slide 27: 

Sept. 6, 2009 27 Today is it 1.12%/year Doubling time 60-65 yrs www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldgraph.php 0.5% >7 doublings by 3000 => 1 T people

Population growth by region : 

Sept. 6, 2009 28 Population growth by region

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Sept. 6, 2009 29

Zero population growth must happen! : 

Sept. 6, 2009 30 Zero population growth must happen! We have to thread the needle! We will limit population or Mother Nature will limit population How she does it might not be pretty How much human misery do we want to tolerate while Nature takes care of the problem? How many species go extinct before humans?

Things that can reduce Population : 

Sept. 6, 2009 31 Things that can reduce Population War Disease Suicide Famine Drought Totalitarian rule (e.g. China) Environmental catastrophe Birth control Persuasion/consensus Empowering women Economic development If you’re not pro birth control, you’re not pro life!

Earth at night: humans everywhere : 

Sept. 6, 2009 32 Earth at night: humans everywhere Moral: No good invention (e.g. the light bulb) fails to have an impact!

Scale of human impacts : 

Sept. 6, 2009 33 Scale of human impacts Tracks formed off the coast of Washington by the condensation of water on the ship’s exhaust. They can persist for several hours. Similar to aircraft contrails. Contribute slightly to cooling the Earth. Small effect, and conditions have to be “just so” for them to be visible. However, the aerosols are always produced.

Global warming:Fluctuations are large, trend is clear : 

Sept. 6, 2009 34 Global warming:Fluctuations are large, trend is clear http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

People burn carbon and emit CO2 also : 

Sept. 6, 2009 35 People burn carbon and emit CO2 also 6.6 109 people * 120 watts/person = 800 GW = 0.8 TW => 5% of total power used The average person uses 20 times the energy they need to stay alive. Most people on the planet don’t use nearly that much. People in the developed world use a lot more.

Humans vs. other species : 

Sept. 6, 2009 36 Humans vs. other species humans take some 40% of primary photosynthetic production on Earth. we are systematically converting non-human biomass into human biomass A substantial increase in human population is not possible except at the expense of other life-forms with which humans compete and on which humans depend No matter how "efficient" our energy-consuming processes are, energy still gets consumed.

Affluence : 

37 Sept. 6, 2009 Affluence The good life! Cars, travel, restaurant food, fresh fruit from far away, …. Per capita consumption of energy. This jumped with the start of the industrial revolution and again after WWII, but it was relatively stable until China and India started growing.

Daily per capita consumption of energy : 

Sept. 6, 2009 38 Daily per capita consumption of energy Adapted from: E. Cook, "The Flow of Energy in an Industrial Society" Scientific American, 1971 p. 135. units 1000 kilocalories: daily consumption requirement to sustain life 2000 kilocalories (N.b. calories on a food package are actually kilocalories; 1000 calories = 1 kilocalorie ) 2000 kilocalories = 100 watts Global average = 46,000 kilocalories/capita

Per capita GDP vs. Energy use by country : 

Sept. 6, 2009 39 Per capita GDP vs. Energy use by country Energy use per capita Bad ---- Economic production per capita Good --- Quality of life Damage to the Environment wiki/World_energy_resources_and_consumption

Human impact: Have we exceeded the carrying capacity of the earth? : 

Sept. 6, 2009 40 Human impact: Have we exceeded the carrying capacity of the earth? Global scale deforestation Affects water purification, soil conservation, pollination, carbon sequestration, flood control, … Fishery collapse Major source of protein Glacial meltdown Rising sea level Reduced stream flow Falling water tables, desertification, soil depletion, species extinctions, ….

How many people and what lifestyle can the planet support? : 

Sept. 6, 2009 41 How many people and what lifestyle can the planet support? Start with food Agricultural top soil will vanish before our fossil fuels are gone. at current depletion (1%/yr) and regeneration rates (0.1%/yr), soil gone 140 years local problems now global scale problems 70 years demise of past civilizations We must adopt strict soil conservation measures on a global scale to sustain the population Bruce Sundquist Carrying Capacity Committee, Allegheny Group, Sierra Club Maximum Population, Aug. 23, 1999.

Biocapacity of the earth = 11.2 gha = Maximum per capita footprint × size of sustainable population : 

Sept. 6, 2009 42 Biocapacity of the earth = 11.2 gha = Maximum per capita footprint × size of sustainable population gha/cap = global hectares per capita: Global total 11.2 gha http://www.optimumpopulation.org/opt.optimum.html (1 hectare = 0.405 acres) Available: 1.64 gha/cap Use USA: 9.4 gha/cap EU: 4.8 gha/cap China: 1.6 gha/cap

Growing energy use (Total 14.7TW) : 

Sept. 6, 2009 43 Growing energy use (Total 14.7TW) Growth rates GW/yr 1965-2005 Oil 77 Coal 47 Gas 65 Nuclear 15 Total >200 Since 2003, the coal use grew at ~5.7%/yr, currently being driven by China. Energy use grew at 1.36%/year. Doubling time ~ 50 years.

Slide 44: 

Sept. 6, 2009 44 2007 884 30 http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/facts/2009_fotw577.html

Human impact on the our planet : 

Sept. 6, 2009 45 Human impact on the our planet Population Affluence Technology I = P x A x T P x A = 2.5%/year Doubling time = 28 years

Population Affluence tradeoff : 

Sept. 6, 2009 46 Population Affluence tradeoff How do we find our way through this? Change economic drivers? Change values? Try technological solutions experiments on a global scale when we “mess around” there are unforeseen consequences Let Nature take its course N.b. Nature will take her course anyway even if we don’t decide she should.

“When applied to material things, the term ‘sustainable growth’ is an oxymoron.” A. Bartlett : 

47 Sept. 6, 2009 “When applied to material things, the term ‘sustainable growth’ is an oxymoron.” A. Bartlett Sustain: to keep up or keep going, as an action or process Sustainable: capable of being sustained for an unspecified long period of time. of, relating to, or being a method of harvesting or using a resource so that the resource is not depleted or permanently damaged of or relating to a lifestyle involving the use of sustainable methods Sustainable development is possible only by use of recycled materials and/or renewable energy. It cannot involve the net consumption of anything such as land or water. If anyone uses the term ‘sustainable growth’, it isn’t possible (non-material inflation is sustainable), even if the person in question is one of the “good guys”..

“When applied to material things, the term ‘sustainable growth’ is an oxymoron.” A. Bartlett : 

48 Sept. 6, 2009 “When applied to material things, the term ‘sustainable growth’ is an oxymoron.” A. Bartlett Sustain: to keep up or keep going, as an action or process Sustainable: capable of being sustained for an unspecified long period of time. of, relating to, or being a method of harvesting or using a resource so that the resource is not depleted or permanently damaged of or relating to a lifestyle involving the use of sustainable methods Sustainable development is possible only by use of recycled materials and/or renewable energy. It cannot involve the net consumption of anything such as land or water. If anyone uses the term ‘sustainable growth’, it isn’t possible (non-material inflation is sustainable), even if the person in question is one of the “good guys”..

Is our form of government up to the challenge? : 

Sept. 6, 2009 49 "...democracy cannot survive overpopulation. Human dignity cannot survive it. Convenience and decency cannot survive it. As you put more and more people into the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears. It doesn't matter if someone dies. The more people there are, the less one individual matters." -Isaac Asimov Is our form of government up to the challenge?

What values, which is most important? : 

Sept. 6, 2009 50 What values, which is most important? Inherent worth and dignity of every human being How many human beings? What makes life worth living? Opportunity Should everyone have the right to our lifestyle? Interconnectedness w/ & interdependence on other species Do tigers, snail darters and redwood trees have the same right to existence as we? Are some species more valuable than others? What are the consequences of mass extinctions? Below physical limitations How many people should the Earth support? What quality of life? Who decides?

Conclusion : 

Sept. 6, 2009 51 Conclusion The planet will be fine Its Life on the planet, the biosphere, which is at risk.

Global threat list : 

Sept. 6, 2009 52 Global threat list Species extinction Pollution by aerosols Pandemic Global warming Population Fresh water Acidification of oceans Resource depletion Greed/consumption Economic collapse Political collapse Inequality Arable land Methane burps Just to name a few!

Success stories: What we need to do has been done before. : 

Sept. 6, 2009 53 Success stories: What we need to do has been done before. Reforestation in South Korea, Pike National Forest Rooftop solar water heating in China Milk production from crop residues in India Geothermal energy in Iceland Wind farms in Denmark Soil conservation tillage in the USA Population stabilization in Eastern Europe, Russia

Some time scales : 

Sept. 6, 2009 54 Some time scales First generation stars 100,000 years ABB Annual salary if you’re lucky Current age of Universe 13.6 B years. Known to better than 1% Age of solar system and Earth 4.5 B years. Iraq war $5 B /month First life 700 M year after formation of planet Heavy bombardment by meteorites before this First humanoids 3.5 M YBP Dinosaurs lasted 150 M years, mammals 75 M yrs Oil supply will last 200 years Humans impacting surface and atmosphere on global scale 100 years

Slide 55: 

Sept. 6, 2009 55 “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.” Lawrence Peter "Yogi" Berra

Prophecies : 

Sept. 6, 2009 56 Prophecies 10 years: Transportation fuel will become much more expensive as oil is used up Jet engines require oil (coal won’t work) 7% of oil required for jet engines 30 years: Population will be going down Conflicts over resources Global starvation 100 years: Another dark age. Mass extinction continues. 300 years: Homo sapiens extinct. 1000 years: Mass extinction over, new species evolving. 109 years: The sun will be expanding and the planet will be consumed. few 109 years: The sun explodes.

Quiz : 

Sept. 6, 2009 57 Quiz What time horizon should we expect for humans? 10, 100, 1000, 10,000, million, billion years What population growth rate is sustainable (in %/year)? 1.18 (current), 1.00, 0.5, 0.25, 0.1, 0.0, -0.1, -0.5 What standard of living should be the norm? USA, China, India, Italy, Bangladesh, Monaco Did you change your mind?

Slide 58: 

Sept. 6, 2009 58 The end. “It may be wrong, but its what I think.”

Miscellany:What don’t we know and when don’t we know it? : 

Sept. 6, 2009 59 Miscellany:What don’t we know and when don’t we know it? Krill and other sea creatures play an important role in ocean circulation. This is not accounted for in global ocean current circulation models. Consumption is ok for a few privileged people, but when it is applied to everyone – big trouble. Democracy is poorly suited to dealing with environmental problems. Our economic system is poorly suited to deal with environmental problems. “Freedom” means the freedom to make money.

Please see : 

Sept. 6, 2009 60 Please see The Story of Stuff www.thestoryofstuff.com And promote it!