Climate Change and PovertyThe Linkages: Climate Change and Poverty The Linkages


Climate Change and Poverty:Indian Agriculture: Climate Change and Poverty: Indian Agriculture The context: 70% of India’s population is rural Around 65% Indians are engaged/employed in agriculture Officially, 27% - or 270 million - Indians live in absolute poverty Around 200 million poor live in rural areas Agriculture is and will continue to be an important sector of the Indian economy for its employment potential


Climate Change and Poverty:Indian Agriculture: Climate Change and Poverty: Indian Agriculture It has been predicted that climate change will result in loss of yields of both major cereals - wheat, rice - and other food crops Rainfed/dryland agriculture will suffer higher losses than irrigated agriculture A large number of farmers in India practice rainfed/dryland agriculture


Climate Change and Poverty:Indian Agriculture: Climate Change and Poverty: Indian Agriculture India is among the fastest growing economies in the world But Indian agriculture is lagging behind and its share in India’s GDP has been declining Crop production has become inconsistent and there are trends of a decline setting in


Slide5: Climate Change and Poverty: Indian Agriculture Share of Agriculture in GDP


Slide6: Climate Change and Poverty: Indian Agriculture


Climate Change and Poverty:Indian Agriculture: Climate Change and Poverty: Indian Agriculture Since 1991, per capita food availability has declined in India from 177 kg to 155 kg annually. 155 kg was the per capita availability of food in 1941, the year of the Bengal Famine Only Sub-Saharan Africa and some other LDCs have lower levels of food availability Incidence of hunger has gone up. Starvation Deaths have been reported from various places in India Reportedly, about 1 million farmers committed suicide between 1993-2003


Climate Change and Poverty:Indian Agriculture: Climate Change and Poverty: Indian Agriculture There are also many non-official estimates of poverty that say absolute poverty is as high as 50% in rural areas on the basis of available data on agriculture All these trends will accelerate and become more serious if the predicted changes in climate and the associated changes in rainfall become more pronounced


Other Impacts of Climate Change: Other Impacts of Climate Change This year, Barmer in Western Rajasthan received 750 mm rainfall – 5 times more than average – within a single week!! 140 people died. 50,000 livestock also perished. Crops worth Euro 175 Million were destroyed Heavy flooding occurred in many other parts of India too


Other Impacts of Climate Change: Other Impacts of Climate Change Assam in Eastern India recorded an unprecedented rainfall deficit of 40%!! Foodgrain production is expected to drop from 1600 kg/ha to below 1400kg/ha, a decline of about 8.5% in a single year Various estimates including by FAO say that India could experience 18%-30% decline in food production


Other Impacts of Climate Change: Other Impacts of Climate Change Sea level rise leading to inundation of low-lying coastal areas will place about 2.5 million people at risk in the Western Indian states of Goa and Maharashtra. Cost of potential damages to Bombay, the financial capital of India, are estimated to be around Euro 40 Billion!!


The Way Forward: Some Tentative Suggestions: The Way Forward: Some Tentative Suggestions The largest emitter of carbon – USA – has to be on board Developing countries must know what their emission quota is before they trade it away. This allocation must be equitable and just. Developed countries must take the lead to embark on an emission free energy path, so that developing countries can also take advantage of the resultant economies of scale Developed countries need to meet not only their MDG commitments but additionally need to contribute technologically and financially towards mitigation and adaptation by developing countries