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The WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project – A Status ReportPresentation by George C. EadsCharles River Associates, Inc.Project Lead ConsultantAugust 8, 2002  : 

The WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project – A Status Report Presentation by George C. Eads Charles River Associates, Inc. Project Lead Consultant August 8, 2002

Slide2: 

Project Sponsors

Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project: 

Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project Part 1 – Survey of the state of world mobility and its sustainability at the end of the twentieth century Part 2 – Development of vision(s) of how mobility can be made sustainable in the future and of strategies for the attainment of this (these) vision(s)

Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project: 

Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project Phase 1 – Survey of the state of world mobility and its sustainability at the end of the twentieth century – Mobility 2001, released October 2001 Phase 2 – Development of vision of how mobility can be made sustainable in the future and of strategies for the attainment of this vision

Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project: 

Structure of the WBCSD Sustainable Mobility Project Phase 1 – Survey of the state of world mobility and its sustainability at the end of the twentieth century – Mobility 2001, released October 2001 Phase 2 – Development of vision of how mobility can be made sustainable in the future and of strategies for the attainment of this vision – now underway; Sustainable Mobility 2030 to be completed by December 2003

Outline of today’s presentation: 

Outline of today’s presentation Summary of Mobility 2001 Scope of report Major influences on the sustainability of mobility Sustainability “scorecards” for the developed and developing worlds “Grand challenges” to achieving sustainable mobility Description of work underway in Part 2 Additional details on fuels-related work

Scope of Mobility 2001: 

Scope of Mobility 2001 Addresses multiple dimensions of sustainability Focuses on urbanized areas of both the developed and developing worlds Includes all transportation modes Includes freight mobility as well as personal mobility

Study team : 

Study team MIT academic departments and research units represented: Center for Transportation Studies Energy Laboratory Materials Systems Laboratory Department of Urban Studies and Design Sloan Automotive Laboratory Department of Mechanical Engineering Laboratory for Energy and the Environment Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Center for Technology Policy and Industrial Development Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics CRA representation: Senior research staff of CRA’s Transportation Practice

Major influences on the sustainability of worldwide mobility: 

Major influences on the sustainability of worldwide mobility Evolving patterns of human settlement and economic activity Dominant role played by the personal road vehicle in providing personal mobility in the developed world Certain regularities in personal travel patterns Enormous growth in freight transportation Transport’s almost total dependence on petroleum-based fuels CO2 and “conventional” emissions from transport Rapid urbanization and motorization of urbanized areas in the developing world

Evolving patterns of human settlement and economic activity: 

Evolving patterns of human settlement and economic activity Two phenomena are shaping this evolution Urbanization – “the most powerful anthropogenic force on earth” “Suburbanization” -- reduction in population density of urbanized areas Neither could be occurring to the extent they are without the mobility improvements of the post WWII era Both have important implications for the sustainability of mobility

Urban population densities are falling : 

Urban population densities are falling Source: Demographia (2001). Data are for “urbanized area” as defined by local and/or national authorities Data for illustrative developed world urban areas

II. Auto* ownership has been rising throughout most of the developed world: 

II. Auto* ownership has been rising throughout most of the developed world *Vehicle ownership per 1000 population *Auto = all light-duty, personal use vehicles

So has the utilization of autos*: 

So has the utilization of autos* *Autos = all personal use light duty vehicles

The auto now dominates personal travel in most developed-world urbanized areas : 

The auto now dominates personal travel in most developed-world urbanized areas Passenger - km/person/year Passenger - km/person/year

Public transport share has been declining: 

Public transport share has been declining Source: Kenworthy and Laube (1999) Public transport share of motorized passenger kilometers

The auto also dominates long-distance travel in the developed world: 

The auto also dominates long-distance travel in the developed world

Slide18: 

Regularities in personal travel across different countries and times

Commuting data for US – 1990 and 2000: 

Commuting data for US – 1990 and 2000 Source: US Census

Growth in freight transportation – all modes except ocean freight: 

Growth in freight transportation – all modes except ocean freight Worldwide tonne-kilometers, 1970-1994; All modes except ocean freight

Growth in ocean freight: 

Growth in ocean freight New Mode 2.0 Worldwide tonne-kilometers, 1975-1995; Ocean freight Note: Red numbers show total freight movements except for ocean freight

Road freight has been growing everywhere: 

Road freight has been growing everywhere Tonnage figures understate value of freight hauled by road

Rail freight traffic growing in a few regions: 

Rail freight traffic growing in a few regions Tonnage figures overstate value of freight hauled by rail

V. Transportation’s almost total dependence on petroleum-based fuels: 

V. Transportation’s almost total dependence on petroleum-based fuels 96% of fuel used in transportation is petroleum-based (gasoline, diesel, residual fuel oil, jet fuel) Transport uses just over half of all petroleum Presently, two-thirds of transport fuel is used in industrialized countries, but industrializing country use is climbing fast; by 2020, projected to be almost equal

VI. Emissions from transportation – CO2: 

VI. Emissions from transportation – CO2 Share of worldwide C02 emissions from the combustion of fuel, by sector -- 1998 Of which: Road (passenger and freight) = 16.9% Rail, domestic air, and inland waterway = 6.1% International air = 1.4% International water = 1.7%

Emissions of “conventional” pollutants: 

Emissions of “conventional” pollutants Source: US Data – Transportation Energy Data Book, Edition 21 – 2001 EU 15 Data – ACEA, “Commentary on the TERM 2001 Report” Transport and road vehicles as a share of total emissions of pollutant (%)

VII. The rapid urbanization and motorization of the developing* world: 

VII. The rapid urbanization and motorization of the developing* world The twin forces of urbanization and motorization are threatening to overwhelm whatever improvements in mobility that citizens in a number of developing countries have begun to enjoy in recent decades * includes “emerging” economies of Eastern Europe

As incomes have risen, vehicle ownership rates in some developing world countries have begun to approach Western European and Japanese rates of 30-40 years ago: 

As incomes have risen, vehicle ownership rates in some developing world countries have begun to approach Western European and Japanese rates of 30-40 years ago Source: Ward’s/Pemberton, World Vehicle Forecasts and Strategies: The Next 20 Years, 1996. Vehicle ownership per 1000 population

Lower income groups in developing world countries are heavily dependant on public transport: 

Lower income groups in developing world countries are heavily dependant on public transport <$117 $208 – $316 $494 – $750 $1,160 – $2,865 $117 – $208 $316 – $494 $750 – $1,160 >$2,865 Percentage of all trips Monthly income (1991 US$) Note: Santiago does not add to 100%; not all modal shares include ed. <$117 $208 – $316 $494 – $750 $1,160 – $2,865 $117 – $208 $316 – $494 $750 – $1,160 >$2,865 Percentage of all trips Monthly income (1991 US$) Note: Santiago does not add to 100%; not all modal shares includ ed. Data for Santiago

Traffic fatalities and serious injuries are an especially serious problem: 

Traffic fatalities and serious injuries are an especially serious problem

Accidents victims aren’t just vehicle occupants: 

Accidents victims aren’t just vehicle occupants - Mode share and road accidents in Delhi, 1994 Mode Mode Share (%) Fatalities (%) Ratio (fatalities/ mode share) Car/taxi 5 2 0.6 Bus 42 10 0.2 Motorized 2 - wheelers 12 27 2.3 Bicycle 5 14 2.8 Pedestrian 32 42 1.3 Source: Mohan and Tiwari (1999).

Motor vehicle-related air pollution an especially serious problem in many urban areas: 

Motor vehicle-related air pollution an especially serious problem in many urban areas 15 11 86‡ São Paulo 1990 94 89 92 64 39 Sources: WRI (1996); West et al. (2000); CONAMA (1998); Fu and Yuan (2001) . * PM10. † Does not include evaporative emissions from refueling. ‡ PM10, includes fugitive road dust. NA: Data not a vailable

What are the implications? Mobility 2001’s sustainability “scorecards”: 

What are the implications? Mobility 2001’s sustainability “scorecards”

Developed world: 

Developed world – Disruption of communities – Transportation - related accidents + Transportations' demand for nonrenewable e nergy + Transportation - related solid waste +

Developing world: 

Developing world – Disruption of communities – Transportation - related accidents – Transportations’ demand for non - renewable energy + Transportation - related solid waste ?

The “grand challenges” identified by Mobility 2001: 

The “grand challenges” identified by Mobility 2001

Group 1: 

Group 1 Adapting the personal use motor vehicle to the future accessibility needs/requirements of the developed and developing worlds Drastically reducing carbon emissions from the transportation sector Providing mobility for those not having access to personal motor vehicles in both the developed and developing worlds

Group 2: 

Group 2 Resolving the competition for access to infrastructure between personal and freight transportation Dealing with growing problem of congestion in inter-city personal and goods transportation

Group 3: 

Group 3 “Reinventing” the process of planning, developing, financing, and managing mobility infrastructure Improving institutional capability to identify, build consensus about how to solve, and implement approaches that promote sustainable mobility And, while doing all of this: Ensuring that our transportation systems continue to play their essential role in economic development and, through the mobility they provide, serve essential human need and enhance the quality of life

From Mobility 2001 to Mobility 2030: 

From Mobility 2001 to Mobility 2030 Mobility 2001 provides us with a “situation analysis” How do we now develop a “vision of sustainable mobility” and “pathways” for reaching it?

Developing Mobility 2030: 

Developing Mobility 2030 Work has been divided into ten separate tasks, or “work streams” Purpose of each work stream – to provide a major piece of the information and analysis

Work Stream #1 -- Indicators: 

Work Stream #1 -- Indicators “We will agree upon a set of sustainability indicators that will enable the project to develop an operational definition of sustainable mobility.” Action team being chaired by Norsk Hydro; recommendations presented to Working Group in mid-July meeting

Why indicators?: 

Why indicators? To permit individual action teams to know how the information they are producing will be used; To permit the project as a whole to assure that it is focusing on the most relevant issues; To permit those involved in the later work streams to measure the impact of potential actions; and, To assure that our “vision” is grounded in reality and addresses the major challenges to achieving sustainable mobility.

Work stream #2 – transport vehicle design and technology: 

Work stream #2 – transport vehicle design and technology “We will assess the potential impact on sustainability of mobility of developments in transport vehicle technology and design” Action Team being chaired by VW; preliminary report to be presented to Working Group in September

Range of transport vehicles: 

Range of transport vehicles Passenger vehicles 1-2 passenger (including mopeds, etc.) 3-6 passenger (“conventional” cars) 6-15 passenger (small vans, etc.) buses (city, suburban, intercity) Goods-hauling vehicles Light, local use Medium, local use Heavy, local use Medium, intercity use Heavy, intercity use Multi-purpose vehicles Purpose-built vans Car-derived vans Vans derived from pickups or similar vehicles Information to cover both developed and developing worlds

Range of performance attributes: 

Range of performance attributes Powertrain types, their fuel requirements, and their performance characteristics Materials used in vehicle construction Safety performance Occupant protection Crash avoidance Interaction with pedestrians, etc. Emissions performance Conventional Greenhouse gas Recyclability Potential for use of on-board electronics

Work stream #3 – transport fuels: 

Work stream #3 – transport fuels “We will identify the potential impact on sustainability of fuels used in transportation Objectives: Develop a shared understanding of fuel pathways which can contribute to sustainability goals by 2030 Identify enablers and blockers for each pathway Ensure that regional differences are taken into account, ensure adequate focus on developing world issues.” Action team being chaired by Shell and Toyota

Work stream #4 – infrastructure: 

Work stream #4 – infrastructure “We will assess the infrastructure requirements resulting from the developments in transport technology and design and by the impact of the changes in fuels used by transport analyzed in Work Streams 2 and 3. We also will assess the potential impact on sustainable mobility of addressing – and of failing to address – these and other infrastructure requirements.” Action team being chaired by GM

Work stream #5 – demand for personal mobility: 

Work stream #5 – demand for personal mobility “We will assess the impact on the demand for personal mobility of (a) the developments identified in transport vehicle design and technology, fuels used in transport, and associated transport infrastructure requirements, and (b) expected developments in population, urban form, growth in per capita income, changes in income distribution, etc.” Action team being chaired by Ford and Honda

Work stream #6 – goods and services mobility: 

Work stream #6 – goods and services mobility “We will assess the impact on the demand for goods and services mobility of (a) the developments we have identified in transport vehicle design and technology, fuels, and infrastructure, and (b) expected developments in population, urban form, growth in per capita income, changes in the composition and structure of industry, changes in logistics requirements, etc.” Action team being chaired by DaimlerChrysler

Work stream #7 – policy instruments and institutional issues: 

Work stream #7 – policy instruments and institutional issues “We will identify the range of policy measures that appear to be available to influence the demand for personal mobility and the demand for goods and services mobility, indicate what is known about their effectiveness in various situations, identify institutional barriers to their use as well as the institutional barriers to the implementation of other actions showing promise for improving the sustainability of mobility, and suggest how these institutional barriers can be overcome and the consequences for achieving sustainable mobility if they are not.” Action team leadership not yet assigned

Work stream #8/#9 – mobility in the urban and long-distance context: 

Work stream #8/#9 – mobility in the urban and long-distance context “We will assess how personal mobility and goods and services mobility may evolve over the next 30 years in the urbanized areas of the developed and developing worlds, assess the impact of this evolution on the sustainability of mobility, and identify actions that could render mobility more sustainable. We will make the same assessment for long-distance personal and goods and services mobility.” Action team co-chaired by Nissan and VW

Work stream #10 – scenario design, “vision” development, coordination: 

Work stream #10 – scenario design, “vision” development, coordination We will assess the cumulative impact of anticipated changes in urbanized area and long-distance personal and goods mobility on the sustainability of mobility and assess the impact of various possible actions on the sustainability of mobility Action team being chaired by Shell and Ford

Coverage of fuel-related issues: 

Coverage of fuel-related issues At least three workstreams logically have some role in addressing fuels-related issues WS2 – Vehicle technology Vehicle fuel use and on-vehicle fuel storage WS3 – Fuels Fuel production and distribution WS4 – Infrastructure Local siting issues (NIMBY) Some “boundary” issues still under discussion

WS3 --Fuels and primary sources: 

WS3 --Fuels and primary sources Final Fuels Diesel Gasoline Methanol Ethanol Hydrogen LPG Methane Bioethanol Biodiesel Primary Sources Crude oil Natural gas Crops Geothermal Wind Hydro/wave Solar

Issues being addressed by WS3: 

Issues being addressed by WS3 Fuels for transportation in 2030 – sources and availability Production technique prospects – infrastructure, costs, environmental impact Customer acceptance issues Sustainability of the fuel Route to “end game” and implications “Quick win” options in different regions Variances between urban and long distance/rural travel for the optimal fuel options “showstoppers” for various options in the different regions Categorization of niche and mainstream options Actions to bring most promising sustainable fuels to reality in different regions Regional variations for the above issues Potential fuels for non-road transport and implications for road transport fuels

Contractor for WS3* presently conducting interviews with wide range of stakeholders: 

Contractor for WS3* presently conducting interviews with wide range of stakeholders Renewable and non-renewable fuel producers including industrial gases Vehicle/power train manufacturers NGOs including transport assocations, consumer groups, fuel associations (i.e., OPEC), World Bank, etc. Regulatory bodies * Frost & Sullivan

Emerging themes from interviews: 

Emerging themes from interviews Significant reliance on oil based fuels at least through 2030 Political pressure for change Widespread support for “Well-to-Wheel” analysis Unanimous support for hydrogen in long term

Some suspicion of unanimity re. hydrogen: 

Some suspicion of unanimity re. hydrogen WS10 undertaking formal scenario analysis GBN is the contractor Scenario analysis designed to assure that we are examining an appropriate range of future political and economic conditions Bears on “robustness” of likelihood of hydrogen