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Slide1: 

Hosted by Decisioneering, Inc. 02/14/2007 Forecasting Oil and Gas Production for Short Term Planning To listen to the session on your phone, follow the instructions in the “Join Teleconference” pop up dialog box which will appear in a few moments. To listen to the session on your computer speakers instead of your phone, follow the instructions in the “Join Internet Phone” pop up dialog box which will appear in a few moments. Please DO NOT join both, as this is redundant. Guest Speaker Michelle LaPoint Register Now for the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference! http://www.crystalball.com/cbuc/index.html

Forecasting Oil and Gas Production for Short Term Planning: 

Forecasting Oil and Gas Production for Short Term Planning Michelle LaPoint, P.E. GOM Deepwater Producing Operations

Agenda: 

Agenda What Are We Trying To Model? Process Model Detail Model Results Presentation to Management Summary Q&A

What Are We Trying To Model?: 

What Are We Trying To Model? Request Expected production volumes for next planning cycle (3 Years) EV BOEPD by Year BOEPD – Barrels of Oil Equivalent per Day BOE – Oil, Gas, NGL’s all converted to barrels Monthly Production Targets for Year 1 Production Forecasts are used internally and externally to: Forecast Financials Allocate Capital and other Resources Competitor Analysis

GOM DW OPS Process: 

GOM DW OPS Process

GOM DW OPS Process: 

GOM DW OPS Process Base Production Forecasts P10 / P50 / P90 Deterministic Forecasts based on Current Decline Levels and Reserve Estimates (Oil and Wet Gas) Future Projects (New Drills, Sidetracks, Workovers, etc) P10/P50/P90 Reserves P10/P50/P90 Initial Rates P10/P50/P90 Production Start Month ALPHA FIELD Business Planner

GOM DW OPS Process: 

GOM DW OPS Process Information from Fields Model also incorporates Facility Capacity Check Downtime (Historical Unscheduled, Planned, Storm) Business Planner Crystal Ball Model

GOM DW OPS Process: 

GOM DW OPS Process Review inputs, assumptions, and results with teams Final results will be teams performance goals (accountability) Crystal Ball Model Results ALPHA TEAM

Model Detail – Future Projects: 

Model Detail – Future Projects

Model Detail – Future Projects: 

Model Detail – Future Projects

Model Detail – Future Projects: 

Model Detail – Future Projects

Model Detail – Future Projects: 

Model Detail – Future Projects

Model Detail – Future Projects: 

Model Detail – Future Projects

Model Detail – Future Projects: 

Model Detail – Future Projects

Model Detail – Future Projects: 

Model Detail – Future Projects

Model Results – S Curves: 

Model Results – S Curves Base Production Projects Capacity Check Downtime + + + = As expected, range increases as we go further out in time

What Management Wants to See: 

What Management Wants to See EV BOEPD First Year Monthly Forecast When do projects start production? What rate will they start at? How can we give the above when Start Dates and IP Rates are varied? Well #1 will start production between October and December Well #1 will IP between 8,000 and 25,000 BOPD

Model Results - Monthly Forecast: 

Model Results - Monthly Forecast “Scenario Analysis” Tool Used to create discrete monthly forecast for each field and for the Area roll-up Target Forecast = Year 1 BOEPD = 7,698 for ALPHA Team

Model Results: 

Model Results Now we have S-Curves and Monthly Forecasts for each Field and for the Area Is this sufficient for management to truly understand the plan? NO!

Model Results – Range and Tornado: 

Model Results – Range and Tornado Include and discuss the significant uncertainties affecting the range (S-Curve) This type of discussion will help us focus our resources on the right projects

ALPHA Tornado: 

ALPHA Tornado Focus Maintaining the Base Production Project #1

BETA Tornado: 

BETA Tornado Focus Maturation of Project #1 Maturation Project #2

Summary: 

Summary Teams & Planner Data Gathering CB Model QC Full Picture for Management Presentation EV Monthly Forecasts S-Curves Tornado Required Better Understanding of Risks to Plan

Tidbits: 

Tidbits Run Time Models Field: 15 – 40 Assumptions & 350 – 400 Forecasts Area: ~ 100 Assumptions & 1800 Forecasts Older “Add-In” Model 10 – 15 minutes to run a field 30 – 45 minutes to run the entire area roll-up Crystal Ball 7 with extreme speed 5 – 10 seconds to run a field 15 – 30 seconds to run the entire area roll-up

Tidbits: 

Tidbits Crystal Ball Functions Great tool you can use to create your own reports Examples =cb.getforepercentfn(cell,50) Pull the P50 value for that forecast =cb.getforestatfn(cell,2) Pull mean value for that assumption How do I get to? Insert  Function “Select Category” drop down  Crystal Ball 7

Tidbits: 

Tidbits Crystal Ball Functions Here are the numbers associated with the different statistics for Crystal Ball: Trials 1 Mean 2 Median 3 Mode 4 Standard Deviation 5 Variance 6 Skewness 7 Kurtosis 8 Coeff. of Variability 9 Minimum 10 Maximum 11 Range Width 12 Mean Std. Error 13

Thank you for attending the Web Seminar Forecasting Oil and Gas Production for Short Term Planning: 

Thank you for attending the Web Seminar Forecasting Oil and Gas Production for Short Term Planning Michelle LaPoint Asset Development Engineer Chevron E-mail: mlapoint@chevron.com Phone: 504-592-6532 02/14/2007 Decisioneering, Inc. 1515 Arapahoe St., Ste 1311 Denver, Colorado 80202 303-534-1515 www.crystalball.com Register Now for the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference! http://www.crystalball.com/cbuc/index.html