Stordahl

Access Technology Demand in Europe: 

Access Technology Demand in Europe Kjell Stordahl, Kjell O Kalhagen, Borgar T Olsen Telenor

Outline: 

Outline Overview of broadband forecasting models used in the period 1993 - 2002, developed in projects supported by the European Commision Evaluation of the forecasting results New broadband forecasting models for competing broadband access technologies Conclusions

Broadband forecasting models How do we use the forecasts?: 

Broadband forecasting models How do we use the forecasts? To forecast broadband subscriptions To forecast broadband traffic volume To forecast the revenue Forecasts for budget control To predict of purchase of broadband equipment To predict of manpower for the installations To predict of investment and maintenance costs To give input for techno-economic evaluations: - Establishment of broadband network platforms - Evaluation of various broadband technologies - Strategies for broadband roll out

Forecasting models and Techno-economic modelling: 

Forecasting models and Techno-economic modelling The forecasts are used to give input for techno-economic evaluations for: Establishment of broadband network platforms Evaluation of various broadband technologies Strategies for broadband roll out

Requirements for broadband forecast modelling: 

Requirements for broadband forecast modelling Because of the nature of the investment projects, long term forecasting models will be used Broadband access technologies for the fixed network are relatively new, with no historical demand or limited historical demand Important information may be expert evaluations, which also have to be included in the methodology

Broadband forecasting methods used in earlier Techno-economic projects (1992 - 2002): 

Broadband forecasting methods used in earlier Techno-economic projects (1992 - 2002) TITAN (1992-1995) Expert evaluations Delphi survey OPTIMUM (1996-1998) Delphi survey Diffusion models TERA (1998-2000) Diffusion models Econometric models TONIC (2001-2002) Expert evaluations Consultant reports Diffusion models

Demand curves for ISDN, wide- and broadband accesses, residential market Western Europe, Delphi survey 1994: 

Demand curves for ISDN, wide- and broadband accesses, residential market Western Europe, Delphi survey 1994

Broadband penetration forecasts, residential market Western Europe, Delphi survey 1994: 

Broadband penetration forecasts, residential market Western Europe, Delphi survey 1994

Ranking of broadband applications.Residential market Western Europe.Delphi survey 1994 and 1997: 

Ranking of broadband applications. Residential market Western Europe. Delphi survey 1994 and 1997

Broadband forecastsResidential market Western Europe Delphi survey 1997: 

Broadband forecasts Residential market Western Europe Delphi survey 1997

Broadband demand curves Residential market Western EuropeDelphi survey 1997: 

Broadband demand curves Residential market Western Europe Delphi survey 1997

Willingness to pay for increased capacity relative to ISDNDelphi survey 1997: 

Willingness to pay for increased capacity relative to ISDN Delphi survey 1997

Long term subscription forecasting modelling: 

Long term subscription forecasting modelling Diffusion models are convenient for: Long term forecasts Forecasting new services Forecasting when the number of observations are limited A Logistic four parameter model, F(t), is used. F(t) = M/(1 + e(a + bt))g where M is the saturation and a, b and g are growth parameters

Broadband penetration forecastsResidential market Western EuropeTERA project1999: 

Broadband penetration forecasts Residential market Western Europe TERA project1999

 Target architecture for broadband technologies : 

ABBREVIATIONS LAP Local Access Point BAP Broadband Access Point ISP Internet Service Provider BSP Broadband Service Provider Target architecture for broadband technologies

Broadband technology penetration June 2001, OECD: 

Broadband technology penetration June 2001, OECD

Broadband technology penetration September 2001 (Analysys): 

Broadband technology penetration September 2001 (Analysys)

Broadband technology penetrationEnd 2001, selected European countries : 

Broadband technology penetration End 2001, selected European countries

Techno- economic calculationsas input to broadband forecasts: 

Techno- economic calculations as input to broadband forecasts Techno-economic calculations are used to: Evaluate rollout strategies based on different broadband technologies in specific market/density segments Estimate coverage/saturation limitations for each technology in specific density segments Calculate NPV and pay back period for relevant broadband technology platforms

TONIC techno-economic tool: 

TONIC techno-economic tool

Substitution and migration effects: 

Substitution and migration effects Broadband technologies: ADSL VDSL Cable modem Other broadband technologies (LMDS, satellite, DTT, FTTH)

Broadband penetrationResidential market Western EuropeTonic project 2002: 

Broadband penetration Residential market Western Europe Tonic project 2002

Broadband forecasting modelling: 

Broadband forecasting modelling 1) Techno-economic calculations are used for each broadband technology 2) Saturation levels are estimated for each technology for different subscriber density segments 3) Overall penetration forecasts are fitted by use of a four parameter Logistic model 4) The market share evolution between each broadband technology is modelled based on migration effects 5) The broadband penetration forecasts for each technology is fitted

Market share evolution cable modemResidential market Western European : 

Market share evolution cable modem Residential market Western European

Technology market share evolution Residential market Western Euope: 

Technology market share evolution Residential market Western Euope

Broadband access forecasts Residential market Western Europe: 

Broadband access forecasts Residential market Western Europe

European broadband forecasts Residential market Western Europe Historical perspective: 

European broadband forecasts Residential market Western Europe Historical perspective 1994 Delphi survey Broadband penetration forecasts 2005: 11,3% 1997 Delphi survey Broadband penetration forecasts 2005: 20,0% 2002 Diffusion model ++ Broadband penetration forecasts 2005: 24,9%

Conclusions: 

Conclusions A review of different broadband forecasting models used in the period 1994-1999 has been performed Delphi method and Logistic models have produced reasonably good results Techno-economic calculations are used to evaluate the economics of different broadband technologies Techno-economic calculations are used to evaluate roll out, coverage and saturation levels for different broadband technologies A specific methodology based on migration effects are used to make long term forecasts for broadband technologies