The next revolution in Energy Technology: The next revolution in Energy Technology Energy Summit 2006 Cisco Systems, San Jose 21 July, 2006


Slide2: “Transitions to Sustainable Energy” The world has a clear and major problem, with no global consensus on the way to proceed: how to achieve transitions to an adequately affordable, sustainable clean energy supply” Co-chairs: Jose Goldemberg, Brazil, Secretary of State for the Environment of the State of São Paolo. Steven Chu, USA


Slide3: Computer simulations by the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab for CO2 increases above pre-industrial revolution levels: 2x CO2 : 3 – 5° C 4x CO2 : 6 - 10° C Pre-industrial: ~275 ppm Today: ~380 ppm


Slide4: CO2 Concentration, Temperature, and Sea Level will rise even after Emissions are Reduced 100 years 1,000 years Sea-level rise due to ice melting: several millennia Sea-level rise due to thermal expansion: centuries to millennia Temperature stabilization: a few centuries CO2 stabilization: 100 to 300 years CO2 emissions CO2 emissions peak 0 to 100 years Today


Slide6: 1  = 68 % confidence level 2  = 95.4% confidence level 3  = 99.7% confidence level For a Gaussian distribution:


Unstable Glaciers: Unstable Glaciers Surface melt on Greenland ice sheet descending into moulin, a vertical shaft carrying the water to base of ice sheet. Source: Roger Braithwaite


Slide8: Temperature over the last 420,000 years Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change


Slide9: Energy demand vs. GDP per capita


Slide10: CO2 emissions depends on the energy source


Slide11: Conservation: maximize energy efficiency and minimize energy use, while insuring economic prosperity Develop new sources of clean energy A dual strategy is needed to solve the energy problem:


The Demand side of theEnergy Solution: The Demand side of the Energy Solution


Slide13: The Rosenfeld Effect


Slide14: Regulation stimulates technology: Refrigerator efficiency standards and performance. The expectation of efficiency standards also stimulated industry innovation


Slide15: “Vampire” drains on energy


Slide16: US Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers compared to sources of electricity 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Billion kWh per year 150 M Refrig/Freezers at 1974 eff at 2001 eff Nuclear Conventional Hydro 3 Gorges Dam Existing Renewables 50 Million 2 kW PV Systems Saved Used Used


Slide17: The Value of Energy Saved and Produced. (assuming cost of generation = $.03/kWh and cost of use = $.085/kWh) 0 5 10 15 20 25 Billion $ per year Dollars Saved from 150 M Refrig/Freezers at 2001 efficiency Nuclear Conventional Hydro Existing Renewables 50 Million 2 kW PV Systems 3 Gorges Dam ANWR


Slide18: Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem Coal, tar sands, shale oil, … Fusion Fission Wind Solar photocells Bio-mass


Slide20: Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem Coal, tar sands, shale oil, … Fusion Fission Wind Solar photocells Bio-mass


Slide21: Modest carbon tax and other incentives were essential to stimulate long term development of power generation from wind 3 MW capacity deployed and 5 MW generators in design (126 m diameter rotors).


Slide22: The Betts Limit: Assuming: Conservation of mass for incompressible flow Conservation of momentum, Maximum kinetic energy delivered to a wind turbine = 16/27 (½)mv2 ~ 0.59 of kinetic energy va vb vb vc Aa, Pa Ab, PbD Ac, Pc Ab, PbU


Slide23: Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem Coal, tar sands, shale oil, … Fusion Fission Wind Solar photocells Bio-mass


Slide24: UC Berkeley Campus Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 3,800 employees, ~$520 M / year budget 10 Nobel Prize winners were/are employees of LBNL, and at least one more “in the pipeline” Today: 59 employees in the National Academy of Sciences, 18 in the National Academy of Engineering, 2 in the Institute of Medicine


Helios: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory’s attack on the energy problem : Helios: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory’s attack on the energy problem


Slide26: Bell Laboratories 15 scientists who worked at AT&T Bell laboratories received Nobel Prizes.


Slide28: Shockley Bardeen Brittain Materials Science Theoretical and experimental physics - Electronic structure of semiconductors - Electronic surface states - p-n junctions


Helios metrics for success: Helios metrics for success Address showstoppers as quickly as possible. Move on as soon as the potential solution will not scale properly. Constantly re-access milestones and goals: Failure is an option. Fuels


Slide30: Is it possible to develop a new class of durable solar cells with high efficiency at 1/5 to 1/10th the cost of existing technology?


Slide31: Paul Alivisatos, Associate Lab Director, Physical Sciences and Division Director, Material Sciences Distributed Junction Solar Cells Creation of electron-hole charges Conduction of charge carriers to electrodes Tetrapod nanoparticle


Slide32: Distributed Junction Solar Cells Introduced by Heeger and coworkers in 1994. Two nano-scale components used to generate exciton creation, charge separation and conduction to electrodes. Many losses when charges are trapped at dead ends within the random network. Problems of charge collection are exacerbated due to the fact the mobilities in the organic media are low, and the holes move much faster than the electrons.


Slide33: Organized Channel Junction Solar Cells Spatially organize the electron-hole transport pathways into an array of vertical columns. Solution phase growth of vertically aligned nanowire arrays as electron transport media Formation of a liquid crystal phase consisting of colloidal nanorods or nanotubes. Alignment of block copolymers Hierarchical Junction Solar Cells using organic dendrimers


Slide35: ~13 B ha of land in the Earth 1.5 B ha for crops 3.5 B ha for pastureland 0.5 B ha are “built up” 7.5 B ha are forest land or “other”


Slide36: Temp/water limitation Rad/water limitation temp/water limitation


Slide38: Source: US Dept of Agriculture


Petroleum Use: Petroleum Use Courtesy Dan Kammen analysis


Greenhouse Gases: Greenhouse Gases Courtesy Dan Kammen analysis


Slide41: Sunlight CO2, H20, Nutrients Biomass Chemical energy The majority of a plant is structural material


Slide42: Advantages of perennial species: higher annualized photosynthesis nutrient conservation


Slide43: Advantages of perennial plants: No tilliage after first planting Long-lived roots establish beneficial interactions with root symbionts that facilitate acquisition of mineral nutrients. Some perennials withdraw a substantial fraction of mineral nutrients from above-ground portions of the plant at the end of the season but before harvest. Perennials have lower fertilizer runoff than annuals. (Switchgrass has ~ 1/8 nitrogen runoff and 1/100 the soil erosion of corn.) Diversity by growing several intermixed species of perennials is more feasible.


Slide44: > 1% conversion efficiency may be feasible. Miscanthus yields: 30 dry tons/acre 100 gallons of ethanol / dry ton possible  3,000 gal/acre. 100 M out of 450 M acres  ~300 B gal / year of ethanol US consumption (2004) = 141 B gal of gasoline ~ 200 B gal of ethanol / year US also consumes 63 B gal diesel


Slide45: Cellulose (40 – 60% of dry mass) Linear polymer of the glucose-glucose dimer Hydrolysis  glucose (6C sugar)  ethanol Hemicellulose (20 -40%) Highly branched, short chain, 5C and 6C sugars such as xylose arabinose, galactose Fermentation of hemicellulose in infancy (Ethanol substituted for other hydrocarbon e.g. butanol, octanes, etc. ?) Lignin (10 – 25%) Does not lead to simple sugar molecules


Slide47: “The large coal deposits of the Carboniferous primarily owe their existence to two factors… the appearance of bark-bearing trees (and in particular the evolution of the bark fiber lignin) [and] the development of extensive lowland swamps and forests in North America and Europe. It has been hypothesized that large quantities of wood were buried during this period because animals and decomposing bacteria had not yet evolved that could effectively digest the new lignin.”


Slide48: From Christopher Somerville, IAC workshop, 2006


Slide49: Commercial ethanol production from cellulose The biggest energy gains will come from improved fuel production from cellulose/lignin


Microbial Production of Bio-fuels and Synthetic Biology : Microbial Production of Bio-fuels and Synthetic Biology Jay Keasling Director, Physical Biosciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory & Depts. of Chemical Engineering & Bioengineering University of California, Berkeley


Malaria: Malaria Caused by Plasmodium, a single-cell protozoan Transmitted by Anopheles mosquito Destroys red blood cells Plasmodium in South America and Southeast Asia is largely resistant to chloroquine – based drugs


Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling: Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling


Research, Development & Delivery: Research, Development & Delivery Keasling Laboratory Amyris Biotechnologies Institute for OneWorld Health


Artemisinin costs: Artemisinin costs


Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling: Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce ethanol, butanol or more suitable hydrocarbon fuel?


Slide56: Matrix Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) Solving the Macro-Micro Interface Problem Steve Quake Red: Primer Input (Multiplexed by N) Blue: Template Input (Multiplexed by N) Yellow: Taq Input (Multiplexed by N2) N2 independent PCR reactions performed with 2N+1 inputs!


Slide57: Sunlight CO2 H20 Nutrients Biomass Chemical energy Can we modify existing organisms (algae) or design new ones to directly produce energy?


Slide58: Carbon capture and storage costs Most of the anticipated cost of carbon capture and storage is in the capture of CO2