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Premium member Presentation Transcript Slide 1: Obsolete and Emerging Technologies Presented by: Jane DeWitt EDUC 7108 Dr. Thornburg August 2010 Slide 2: Obsolescence never meant the end of anything, it's just the beginning… Marshall Mcluhan http://www.icelebz.com/quotes/marshall_mcluhan/ Slide 3: Emerging Technology? What is an Definition varies Some argue…if technology has not reached mainstream it’s emergent Other feel emergence is the very onset of discovery (Thornburg, 2009) Slide 4: Regardless of the innovation, the adoption of technology is not a linear process (Soloway, n.d.) There are gaps Chasms Early adopters Visionaries Emerging to Emerged Slide 5: All technologies enter the chasm Some come out Others don’t (Soloway, n.d.) http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/rational/library/content/RationalEdge/jul01/m_chasm_sf.jpg Slide 6: Technology can be emergent if it is new to your community Even if its an old technology If it’s new to you… it’s emergent (Rogers, 2003) http://suewaters.wikispaces.com/file/view/Slide12B.JPG/31092781/Slide12B.JPG Slide 7: Emerging on the Scene Invented in 1958 First retail LaserDisc not released until 1970 Compared to DVD and CD technology Stopped being produced by 1989 http://www.esquire.com/cm/esquire/images/laser-disc-0607-lg.jpg Slide 8: From 1970s until 1995 there was a home video market battle Beta (backed by Sony) vs. VHS (backed by Philips-JVC) and LaserDisc Consumers had a limited choice of movie releases LaserDisc was the first casualty The Battle Begins... http://www.timefordvd.com/images/hardware/JVC_D-VHS_tape_DF420_large.jpg Slide 9: LaserDisc had a lot of great qualities, but many that were detrimental in its adoption Played only data Unable to record new data Radius of disc was 12 inches Difficult to store Only stored one hour of video per side as compared to 6 or more on VHS or Beta No Adoption of the LaserDisc Slide 10: Obsolete Technology in the classroom “The DVD! Much like the “8 Track Player” and the “Cassette”, the DVD is smaller, holds a great amount of data and is cheaper to purchase/create. Back in the day, the laserdisc was cutting edge, now it is edged to be cut-due to new technologies” (Jim Handschuch, 2010) http://www.wcsd.k12.ms.us/tes/Principal.jpg Slide 11: VHS was eventually replaced by CDs and DVDs for the home videos market The CD and DVD rely on many of the same key patents that were originally intended for the LaserDisc CDs, DVDs and LaserDics were completely digital products CDs, DVDs and LaserDisc products manufacture and store data in a similar manner Replacement Technology Slide 12: Did the decision makers within our district jump too quickly at the purchase of the laserdisc player? LaserDisc...a Bad Decision? Slide 13: Enhances Provided viewer with a sharp picture with High band width Top notch sound quality Able to handle analog and digital audio Allowed for extras to be added (commentary/bonus features) (WGRZ-TV Buffalo, 1992) DVDs with digital Dolby surround sound United Streaming in educational setting to stream videos via internet Streaming of video-audio-TV programming through the internet (Laserdisc, 2010) LaserDisc Slide 14: “….by virtue of being introduced, a new technology carries with it the seeds of destruction paving the way for the next one to follow..” Dr. Thornburg, 2008 Slide 15: Emergence of the DVD http://www.blogcdn.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2008/12/12-19-08-bd-dvd-hybrid.jpg Next generation of optical disc storage Obsoleted the LaserDisc Industry standard announced in 1995 Backed by major industry first in Japan (1996) and in U.S. (1997) Slide 16: Enhances Provides a compact, optical storage system Read, write, record Full length, high quality movies High quality music, surround sound Optional videos/graphics Built in copy protection (“DVD(Digital Versatile Disk”, 2008) D V D s Slide 17: Integration of Technology Slide 18: “Within our school, there was probably only ONE, that had to be signed out…and it came with bulky equipment and no lessons on how to make it all work together.” (C. Reider, 2010) Why the LaserDisc did not integrate into the school Slide 19: A technology goes through a predictable, nonlinear process in which it becomes exponentially more powerful over time … (Dr. Thornburg, 2009) Six Forces: Evolutionary Technologies Slide 20: According to Dr. Thornburg(2009), during the early stages of technology development there are numerous evolutions and the LaserDisc was no exception. Six Forces: Evolutionary Technologies Slide 21: Prior to the release of the LaserDisc, other innovations were evolving. One such invention was the Polaroid Polavison Polavision made instant movies by capturing 18 instant photos a second Six Forces: Evolutionary Technologies Slide 22: Are also responsible for the obsolescence of the LaserDisc Evolution of technology continued to advance LaserDisc arrived too late on the consumer market Obsolesced by VHS which was later obsolesced by DVDs and CDs Six Forces: Evolutionary Technologies Slide 23: A new technology is a fresh emergence of the impact felt many years before from another technology… (Dr. Thornburg, 2009) Six Forces: Rhymes of History http://i.ehow.com/images/a04/ep/9u/rekindle-romance-fire-relationship-200X200.jpg Slide 24: Did the LaserDisc rekindle something from the past? Families gathering around the radio Home movies Slide shows But…do these explain the original emergence of the LaserDisc? …….Maybe Six Forces: Rhymes of History Slide 25: Perhaps one reason why the LaserDisc did not fully emerge stems from its inability to fully rekindle something from our past as readily as other technologies Other inventions, emerging on the scene at the same time, doomed the LaserDisc, even before consumers could truly appreciate its advancing technology Six Forces: Rhymes of History Slide 26: The DVD was able to rekindle something from the past Movie Night Family gathering time With more time to spend together, without incurring a huge expense, the DVDs emergence may be partially attributed to the Rhymes of History Six Forces: Rhymes of History Slide 27: What is a Disruptive Technology? A new technology with the same functionality of an existing technology, but it functions more efficiently and ultimately obsoletes that technology… (D. Thornburg, 2009) Six Forces: Disruptive Technology http://media.smashingmagazine.com/cdn_smash/images/wallpapers4/disruption.jpg Slide 28: At the time of emergence of the LaserDisc, there were two other technologies emerging as well (VHS & Beta) The LaserDisc emerged on the market, but did not truly create a new way of thinking about or performing a new task LaserDisc was quickly doomed as the VHS tape monopolized the market Six Forces: Disruptive Technology Slide 29: Disruptive Technologies emerging on the scene concurrent with the LaserDisc could have caused it to obsolete before ever being considered emerged VHS tape and Betamax appeared on the market and provided consumers with a new way of viewing movies and recording TV programs VHS reigned over Beta and obsoleted the LaserDisc Six Forces: Disruptive Technology Slide 30: Yes, it’s probable…. DVD obsoleted the VHS Successor to CD-ROM 5 times data capacity of CD Crystal clear audio No more flipping the disc to view movies Six Forces: Disruptive Technology Was the emergence of the DVD a result of Disruptive Technology? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_technology Slide 31: Six Forces: Science Fiction I wouldn't have seen it if I hadn't believed it. (M.McLuhan) http://harryallen.info/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/avatar-navi-image.jpg Slide 32: Six Forces: Science Fiction Did the LaserDisc emerge from a science-based science fiction concept? NO. During the era of emergence for the LaserDisc, Science fiction did not influence its creation. Science fiction was focused on alien attacks from distant galaxies. Science fiction does not explain why the LaserDisc was replaced by newer technologies Slide 33: Science fiction can help to explain the emergence of the DVD that obsolesced the VHS which in turn obsolesced the LaserDisc. Six Forces: Science Fiction http://img1.fantasticfiction.co.uk/images/n0/n1524.jpg Slide 34: This occurs when two innovations hit the market at the same time. By chance, one technology is locked in and drives the other to extinction. (D. Thornburg, 2009) Six Forces: Increasing Returns http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_7_STIZXdI5I/SfETzUN0-uI/AAAAAAAAAA0/DbYHZjiETwE/S990-R/chaos_theory_985x319_with_words.png Slide 35: Technologies need to be accepted in order to have an impact Rate of acceptance relies on many factors Quality Capabilities of technology (D. Thornburg, 2008) Six Forces: Increasing Returns Slide 36: Increasing returns and the emergence of the DVD Emerging technology does not follow a linear path The DVD emerged with a “winner take all” stance Obsolesced previous technologies Superior quality Ease of Use Cost effective Six Forces: Increasing Returns Slide 37: This phenomena occurs when competition arises between two forces that results in the rapid development of them both Red Queens exist in emerging technology Without fierce competition, there would be little incentive for vendors to provide new features for their products (D. Thornburg, 2008) Six Forces: Red Queens http://www.marketingmag.ca/images/mktdaily/2010/queen_1002.jpg Slide 38: http://ayyyy.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Red-Queen-733517.jpg Six Forces: Red Queens Was the Red Queen phenomenon the reason the LaserDisc emerged onto the market? Slide 39: LaserDisc emerged in 1978 At same time VHS and Betamax systems were emerging VHS rose to the top, even though it was not superior in quality VHS was the Red Queen for the LaserDisc as it provided the features the consumer desired. Six Forces: Red Queens The Red Queen obsoleted the LaserDisc? Slide 40: The DVD has begun To become obsolete within The school setting DVD being obsolesced by Newer, more convenient And accessible technology UnitedStreaming Netflix Speculation.... http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_FFBmO7KOFXo/R9guPLuIHaI/AAAAAAAACuw/dii9vJmYFsk/s400/SPECULATION.JPG Slide 41: We shape our tools and afterwards our tools shape us.Quotation of Marshall Mcluhan Slide 42: Brilliant but doomed: Technology’s most magnificent failures retrieved August 10 from http://technologizer.com/2009/07/27/brilliant-but-doomed/ Chapin, R. (nd). History of DVD retrieved from http://www.miqrogroove.com/writing/history-of-dvd/ History of the laserdisc retrieved August 13 from: http://www.ehow.com/about_5336010_laserdisc-history.html http://inventors.about.com/library/inventors/bldvd.htm Laser Disc History retrieved August 10 from http://www.ehow.com/about_5048010_laser-disc-history.html#ixzz0wdWD5K41 Laureate Education, Inc. (2009). Disruptive Technologies”. Emerging and future technologies, Baltimore: Author Retrieved from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=4199715&Survey=1&47=4246563&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1. Rogers, E. M. (2003). Diffusion of innovations (5th ed.). New York: Free Press. Soloway, E. (n.d.). Emerging vs. emerged technologies. Laureate Education, Inc. Podcast retrieved from: http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/courses/14936/CRS-WUEDUC8812-3730077/educ_8848_md_transcript.pdf Technovelgy retrieved from http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/content.asp?Bnum=773 Thornburg, D. D. (2008b). Emerging technologies and McLuhan's Laws of Media. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration. Thornburg, D. (2009a). Evolutionary Technologies. Laureate Education, Inc. Retrieved July 7, 2010, from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=4199715&Survey=1&47=4169653&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1 Thornburg, D. (2008c). Red Queens, butterflies, and strange attractors: Imperfect lenses into emergent technologies. Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration. Thornburg, D. (2009b). Rhymes of History. Laureate Education, Inc. Retrieved July 8, 2010, from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=4199715&Survey=1&47=4246563&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1 Thornburg, D. D. (2009). Science fiction. Laureate Education, Inc. Retrieved from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=4199715&Survey=1&47=5797856&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1 Thornburg, D. (2009b). Six Forces That Drive Emerging Technologies. Laureate Education, Inc. Retrieved July 7, 2010, from http://sylvan.live.ecollege.com/ec/crs/default.learn?CourseID=4199715&Survey=1&47=4169653&ClientNodeID=984645&coursenav=1&bhcp=1 Thornburg, D. D. (2009b). When is a technology emergent? Lake Barrington, IL: Thornburg Center for Space Exploration. You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.