UWIG Colt

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Energy and Rural Alaska Economic Development: 

Energy and Rural Alaska Economic Development Steve Colt, University of Alaska Anchorage email afsgc@uaa.alaska.edu presented to Utility Wind Interest Group May 23, 2000

Statewide Economic Outlook: On the Surface,: 

Statewide Economic Outlook: On the Surface, Positive Signs People Feel Good Future Looks Positive

Economic Indicators: 

Economic Indicators Jobs Wage Rate Personal Income Per Capita Income Value Added (GSP) Population

JOBS: Growth Rate Down: 

JOBS: Growth Rate Down

BASIC JOBS: : 

BASIC JOBS: 4,000 Lost since 1990

AVERAGE REAL WAGE: Down: 

AVERAGE REAL WAGE: Down

REAL PERSONAL INCOME: Growth Rate Down: 

REAL PERSONAL INCOME: Growth Rate Down

Total REAL INCOME: Growth Since 1990: 

Total REAL INCOME: Growth Since 1990

PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME: : 

PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME: Now Below U.S. Average

NON-OIL Value-Added: Growth Rate Down: 

NON-OIL Value-Added: Growth Rate Down

POPULATION: Cumulative Change in the 1990s: 

POPULATION: Cumulative Change in the 1990s

The Post-Prudhoe Blues Market Value of Oil and Other Production : 

The Post-Prudhoe Blues Market Value of Oil and Other Production

What About Rural Alaska?: 

What About Rural Alaska? Shift from State to Federal Funding Shift from Govt to “Services” employment (nonprofits, tribes) Shift from Municipal to Tribal govt Continuing Rapid Population Growth (2-3%) Struggle to retain fisheries wealth Cautious embrace of tourism

High Wind Communities: 

High Wind Communities Class 6 and 7 Coastal Treeless Small -- average population 387 (excluding Unalaska) Some have Fish Resources

Per Capita Personal Income: Alaska vs. High-Wind Communities: 

Per Capita Personal Income: Alaska vs. High-Wind Communities

Fuel Cost per kWh: Anchorage vs. High-Wind Communities: 

Fuel Cost per kWh: Anchorage vs. High-Wind Communities

Components of Diesel Cost: 

Components of Diesel Cost Crude oil = $.35 Refining = $.25 Bulk Barge = $.10-.30 Inland Transport = $.00 - $1.00 Bulk Storage = $.10-.20 cents Total = $.80 - $2.10

NonFuel Cost per kWh: 

NonFuel Cost per kWh

Rural vs.(?) Urban Energy Projects: 

Rural vs.(?) Urban Energy Projects Through 1993, urban projects cost about twice as much as rural projects plus PCE. In any Event, About 75% of rural energy project dollars flow to urban areas. (weatherization)

Energy Projects and Jobs: 

Energy Projects and Jobs The conventional energy system supports significant employment. Little of the total cost goes out-of-state Hence, Real job creation comes from a lower cost (not price!) of living and doing business, not from one-time construction impacts.

Four Types of Feasibility: 

Four Types of Feasibility Technical -- Performs according to design, designed for Alaska Economic -- beats avoided cost of diesel Locational -- resilience against normal disruption Human Resource / Administrative

Which Comes First?: 

Which Comes First? Projects drive Community Development and develop capacity Or, Community Capacity Enables Projects