PaulDarby 07SymposiumPresentat ion

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Slide1: 

The Economic Outlook for Tourism: Lofty Loonie Takes a bite out of Growth Presentation to the Canadian Snow Industry Blue Mountain, Ontario - July 24, 2007 Paul Darby Deputy Chief Economist darby@conferenceboard.ca

US Outlook : 

US Outlook Housing market correction restrains consumer spending in 2008 Strength in exports, investment spending Economy avoids recession—non housing part of the economy expanding at 3% pace

US Existing Home Sales and Prices (millions, $): 

US Existing Home Sales and Prices (millions, $) Source: National Assn. of Realtors.

U.S. Real Residential Investment (quarterly per cent change at annual rates): 

U.S. Real Residential Investment (quarterly per cent change at annual rates) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; BEA.

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (per cent of income) : 

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (per cent of income) Source: Moody’s Economy.com

US Real Consumer Spending (annual per cent change): 

US Real Consumer Spending (annual per cent change) Source: BEA;CBoC

Why US Avoids Recession : 

Why US Avoids Recession Employment still growing Strength in exports, investment spending Interest rate increases over

U.S. Dollar (FRB 10 Country $ Index): 

U.S. Dollar (FRB 10 Country $ Index) Source: Moody’s Economy Inc.

US Exports (per cent change) : 

US Exports (per cent change) Source: BEA;CBoC

US Real GDP (annual per cent change): 

US Real GDP (annual per cent change) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Canada’s Outlook 2007–08: 

Canada’s Outlook 2007–08 Boom from resource sector seems firmly entrenched Surge in Loonie poses further challenges to trade and tourism although strong currency will serve to rein in inflation Canada not immune to U.S. slowdown—wood products and construction materials especially hard hit Wealth effect to continue to spur domestic economy Regional divergence continues

The Loonie and the Oil Price WTI $US, $US/$C: 

The Loonie and the Oil Price WTI $US, $US/$C Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; U.S. Energy Information Administration; Statistics Canada.

Commodity Prices to Remain Elevated (Quarterly index to 1997:1, 2002 =100 in real $U.S.): 

Commodity Prices to Remain Elevated (Quarterly index to 1997:1, 2002 =100 in real $U.S.) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; The Bank of Canada; BEA.

Exchange Rate 2000–08 U.S. cents per Canadian dollar: 

Exchange Rate 2000–08 U.S. cents per Canadian dollar Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Loonie Takes Flight: Canadian $ appreciation, in per cent, vs. major currencies (Dec 29th, 2006 to June 25th, 2007): 

Loonie Takes Flight: Canadian $ appreciation, in per cent, vs. major currencies (Dec 29th, 2006 to June 25th, 2007) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Bank of Canada.

Adding up Real GDP: percentage point contribution to growth: 

Adding up Real GDP: percentage point contribution to growth Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

Real Travel Receipts from Foreigners Growth Rate, 2000–08 : 

Real Travel Receipts from Foreigners Growth Rate, 2000–08 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Interest Rates (90-Day T-Bill) Quarterly 2000–08: 

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; BEA; Statistics Canada. Canada U.S. Interest Rates (90-Day T-Bill) Quarterly 2000–08

Consumer Price Inflation Canada 2000–08: 

Consumer Price Inflation Canada 2000–08 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Federal and Provincial Gov’t Balances (Public Accounts Basis, fiscal year ending, $billions): 

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets. Federal and Provincial Gov’t Balances (Public Accounts Basis, fiscal year ending, $billions)

Real Growth in Government Spending on Goods and Services Canada (2000–08): 

Real Growth in Government Spending on Goods and Services Canada (2000–08) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Pre–Tax Corporate Profits (per cent share of nominal GDP): 

Pre–Tax Corporate Profits (per cent share of nominal GDP) Source: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

Real Business Investment Growth (Canada 2000–08): 

Real Business Investment Growth (Canada 2000–08) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Slide24: 

Source: Statistics Canada. Value of Non-Residential Building Permits and Trend ($ Billions, Monthly May 2003 to June 2007)

Gains in Total Employment (000s) Canada, 2001 (05) – 2007 (05): 

Gains in Total Employment (000s) Canada, 2001 (05) – 2007 (05) Source: Statistics Canada. Employment Base = 16 million

Unemployment Rate vs. Natural Rate percent, 1981-2008: 

Sources: Statistics Canada; Conference Board of Canada. Unemployment Rate vs. Natural Rate percent, 1981-2008 Natural Rate at 5.9%

Population Distribution by Age, 2006, 2015: 

Population Distribution by Age, 2006, 2015 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Participation rate by age group (percentage, 2005): 

Participation rate by age group (percentage, 2005) Source: Statistique Canada.

Employment Growth Canada, 2000–08: 

Employment Growth Canada, 2000–08 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Labour Force Growth (per cent change, compound annual growth): 

Labour Force Growth (per cent change, compound annual growth) Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

International Immigration Canada 1964–2020 (000s): 

International Immigration Canada 1964–2020 (000s) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 262,000 in 2005

Stock of Temporary Workers Canada 1996–2005 (000s): 

Stock of Temporary Workers Canada 1996–2005 (000s) Sources: Citizenship and Immigration Canada.

Private Non-Farm Productivity (per cent change, compound annual growth): 

Private Non-Farm Productivity (per cent change, compound annual growth) Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

Growth in Industrial Composite Average Weekly Wage versus CPI (per cent change): 

Growth in Industrial Composite Average Weekly Wage versus CPI (per cent change) Source: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada

Real Disposable Income Growth percent, Canada 2000–08: 

Real Disposable Income Growth percent, Canada 2000–08 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Household Interest Payments as a share of disposable income Quarterly from 1980 (1) to 2007 (1): 

Household Interest Payments as a share of disposable income Quarterly from 1980 (1) to 2007 (1) Source: Statistics Canada. Recession 81:3–82:4 Recession 90:2–91:1

Index of Consumer Attitudes, Canada Jan 02–June 07 (2002 =100): 

Index of Consumer Attitudes, Canada Jan 02–June 07 (2002 =100) Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

Real Consumer Spending Growth Canada 2000–08: 

Real Consumer Spending Growth Canada 2000–08 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Housing Starts (000s) Canada 2000–08: 

Housing Starts (000s) Canada 2000–08 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Real GDP Growth Rate Canada 2000–08: 

Real GDP Growth Rate Canada 2000–08 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Net Interprovincial Migration (average annual migration over period, 000s): 

Net Interprovincial Migration (average annual migration over period, 000s) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

Real Private Investment in Plant and Equipment (average compound growth, per cent): 

Real Private Investment in Plant and Equipment (average compound growth, per cent) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.

2007 Real GDP Growth by Province (per cent, basic prices, 1997 $): 

2007 Real GDP Growth by Province (per cent, basic prices, 1997 $) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Canada

2008 Real GDP Growth by Province (per cent, basic prices, 1997 $): 

2008 Real GDP Growth by Province (per cent, basic prices, 1997 $) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Canada

Conclusions: 

Conclusions Wealth effect continues to bolster domestic economy Strong dollar providing plenty of monetary tightening but hurting tourism Strong domestic economy will provide most of the stimulus to tourism Regional divergence continues to manifest itself Tight labour markets will continue to pose challenges to businesses Well poised for growth over the medium term

Implications of the Economic Outlook for the Canadian Ski Industry : 

Implications of the Economic Outlook for the Canadian Ski Industry ** Only slight growth in U.S. skiers visiting Canada given weaker U.S. consumer outlook, high C$ and WHTI. Focus marketing on the high-end skier. ** Other offshore markets should show good growth. ** Very strong Western Canadian domestic demand for skiing as a result of the hot western economy. ** Sluggish growth in Eastern Canadian ski visitors given relatively slower consumer spending growth.

Slide47: 

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