IRI LB1

Tropical cyclones in the ECHAM5 general circulation model-Simulation, validation and response to climate change-: 

Tropical cyclones in the ECHAM5 general circulation model -Simulation, validation and response to climate change- Lennart Bengtsson ESSC, University Reading MPI for Met., Hamburg Many thanks to Kevin Hodges Erich Roeckner and Renate Brokopf

There are recent claims that there is an increase in hurricane intensity ( e.g. Emanuel (2005), Webster et al. (05): 

There are recent claims that there is an increase in hurricane intensity ( e.g. Emanuel (2005), Webster et al. (05) Are these findings credible? They are generally not supported by operational meteorologists According to Knutson and Tuleya (2004) any changes are probably undetectable “for decades to come” Results from this study and some additional work will presumably reduce the likelihood of detection further There are structural problems in the detection of trends Changes in observing systems Difficulties to separate a genuine change in storms from societal causes behind the huge increase in damages and damage cost

How may anthropogenic climate change effect atmospheric vortices?: 

How may anthropogenic climate change effect atmospheric vortices? There is a general expectation that climate change will imply more intense cyclones both in the extra-tropics and the tropics. And this is certainly the perception of media and the laymen that this is likely to happen in a future climate. And political decisions are driven by such perceptions. Intense storms even now are seen as being a consequence of greenhouse gases and only reduced CO2 emission will prevent future disaster storms.

Extra-tropical vorticesWhat would we expect?: 

Extra-tropical vortices What would we expect? Extra-tropical storms depend mainly on baroclinicity. As high-latitude warming is predicted to be larger than at lower latitudes this may imply reduced baroclinicity and thus reduced intensity of future storms. On the other hand latent heat release is likely to increase providing a positive contribution towards intensification What are the model results? What will happen to the number of storms? Bengtsson et al., 2006 ( J. of Climate)

Change in extra-tropical storms next 100 years DJF (21C-20C), number(max intensity) NH(ECHAM5 /OM1): 

Change in extra-tropical storms next 100 years DJF (21C-20C), number(max intensity) NH (ECHAM5 /OM1) Intense storms Vorticity 850 mb, unit 10-5s-1

What can we conclude from observational records?No long-term trend in extreme extra-tropical storms in NW Europe: 

What can we conclude from observational records? No long-term trend in extreme extra-tropical storms in NW Europe WASA, 1998: Changing Waves and Storms in the North Atlantic. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. Weisse, von Storch und Feser, 2004 Alexandersson, 2004

Tropical cyclones in a future climatewhat could be expected?: 

Tropical cyclones in a future climate what could be expected? Higher SST and higher atmospheric moisture would generally favor more intense storms ( e.g. Emanuel 1988, 1999) This is supported by modeling results by Knutson and Tuleya (2004) driving an limited area model with CMIP2+ boundary data ( nine different models). Increasing vertical wind-shear and reduced relative humidity would counteract this tendency. Such influences occur in the tropical N. Atlantic during El Nino. How will the number of storms change? What are the general conditions controlling the number of tropical storms? What are the critical conditions in modeling tropical storms? Are results from large scale models with limited resolution credible?

Slide9: 

After Emanuel

Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensityKnutson and Tuleya (2004, J of Climate): 

Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity Knutson and Tuleya (2004, J of Climate) They used a high resolution limited area model driven by the SST and moisture of 9 CGCM from the CMIP 2+ project. CMIP2 uses 1%yr-1 increase over an 80-year period implying an increase by a factor of 2.2. Model calculations are undertaken in NW Pacific-, NE Pacific- and Atlantic basin Four different convective schemes are tested (no significant differences) RESULTS: Max. surface wind speed increases by 6% Min. central pressure by 14% Max. precipitation by 24% Hurricane increase by a factor of 1/2 in the Simpson-Saphire scale

Intensification of hurricanes at 2xCO2Knutson and Tuleya (2004): 

Intensification of hurricanes at 2xCO2 Knutson and Tuleya (2004)

Tropical eddies in GCMsSome previous work: 

Tropical eddies in GCMs Some previous work Manabe et al., 1970 (J.Atmos. Sci.) Bengtsson et al., 1982 ( Tellus) Haarsma et al., 1993 (Climat. Dyn.) Bengtsson et al., 1995, 1997 (Tellus) Tsutsui and Kasahara, 1996 ( J. Geophys.Res.) Vitard et al., 1997, 1999, 2001 (J. Climate) Sugi et al.,2002 ( J. Meteor. Soc. Japan) Camargo and Sobel, 2005 (J. Climate)

Slide13: 

Early results, Bengtsson et al., 1995 (Tellus)

Slide14: 

Effect of 2xCO2 From Bengtsson et al., 1997 (Tellus) ( number of cyclones /basin)

ECHAM 5: 

ECHAM 5 Roeckner et al., (2003), MPI-Report 349 Resolution used T63L31 (top at 10hPa) Water vapour, cloud liquid water and cloud ice in semi-Lagrangian flux form-scheme

How are transient eddies identified?: 

How are transient eddies identified? Data sets are needed at least every 6 hour We use a method proposed by Hodges (Hodges, 1999, MWR) We use the vorticity at 850hPa (unit 10-5 s-1) A transient eddy must exist for >48hours and be extended over at least1000km

Tropical storm tracks, 2005 MJJASO850 hPa ( Courtesy ECMWF): 

Tropical storm tracks, 2005 MJJASO 850 hPa ( Courtesy ECMWF)

Tropical track density (MJJASO)ECHAM5 (top), ERA40 (bottom): 

Tropical track density (MJJASO) ECHAM5 (top), ERA40 (bottom)

Storm track intensity and densityECHAM5 and ERA 40 (MJJASO): 

Storm track intensity and density ECHAM5 and ERA 40 (MJJASO)

Number of tropical vortices ( max. intensity)ERA 40 and ECHAM5 (AMIP2), 3x: 

Number of tropical vortices ( max. intensity) ERA 40 and ECHAM5 (AMIP2), 3x Extreme storms

Summary of results for ECHAM5 AMIP runs, NH tropics: 

Summary of results for ECHAM5 AMIP runs, NH tropics ECHAM5 has more eddy activity over the African continent with a slightly more northerly position In the Pacific ocean the eddy activity is less than in ERA40 except in the eastern Pacific. Some differences in the statistical distributing with more stronger storms in ECHAM5 except for a very few intense vortices ( less than one /year) where there some more in ERA40.

Tropical storm tracks (modelled and observed)at higher resolution (T159)Number/month as a function of max. intensity: 

Tropical storm tracks (modelled and observed)at higher resolution (T159) Number/month as a function of max. intensity Comparison with T159 resolution

Extreme tropical storm tracks (modelled and observed))Number/month as a function of max. intensity: 

Extreme tropical storm tracks (modelled and observed)) Number/month as a function of max. intensity Comparison with T159

Slide24: 

Courtesy J. O’Brien

Tropical vortices response to ENSO, track density  top ERA40, below ECHAM5 (20 year, AMIP): 

Tropical vortices response to ENSO, track density top ERA40, below ECHAM5 (20 year, AMIP)

Tropical vortices response to ENSO, track intensity  top ERA40, below ECHAM5 (20 year, AMIP): 

Tropical vortices response to ENSO, track intensity top ERA40, below ECHAM5 (20 year, AMIP)

Storm track and ENSO: 

Storm track and ENSO There is a good agreement between ECHAM5 and ERA40 in the response to ENSO (using SST in NINO3 as a measure) Most marked is the storm track enhancement over southern US stretching into the Atlantic and the storm track enhancement in the northeast Pacific There is a weakening of the tropical Atlantic storm track and a southward transition of the Pacific storm track

The Climate change experiment The coupled model: 

The Climate change experiment The coupled model

Ocean Model (MPI-OM): 

Ocean Model (MPI-OM) Marsland et al., 2003: Ocean Modelling, 5(2), 91-127 40 levels, bottom topography, partial grid cells 1.5° resolution, grid poles over land areas Parameterization include isopycnal diffusion, horizontal tracer mixing, vertical eddy mixing, convective overturning, slope convection

Climate change experiment: 

Climate change experiment Coupled model was run with pre-industrial forcing for 500 years ( negligible drift) 20th century runs 1860-2000 with observed anthropogenic forcing including CFCs, ozone and sulphate aerosols ( direct and indirect) 3 runs from different ocean and atmospheric states The runs were continued until 2100 using IPCC SRES scenario A1B

What is A1B?: 

What is A1B? Middle of the line scenario Carbon emission peaking in the 2050s (16 Gt/year) CO2 reaching 450 ppm. in 2030 CO2 reaching 700 ppm. in 2100 SO2 peaking in 2020 then coming done to 20% thereof in 2100

How will climate change affects the storm tracks?: 

How will climate change affects the storm tracks? We compare three 30 year periods of 1961-1990 (20C) and 2071-2100 (21C) The 20C run agrees closely with the AMIP run Two different kinds of changes stand out: (a) A broad conservation of the total number of storms tracks except a minor reduction of the weaker storms (b) Geographical changes in the storm tracks

SST changes 21C - 20 C: 

SST changes 21C - 20 C

Changes in storm track density (top) and intensity(bottom) (21C-20C), MJJASO Tropics: 

Changes in storm track density (top) and intensity(bottom) (21C-20C), MJJASO Tropics

Changes in storm track density (21C-20C)  MJJASO: 

Changes in storm track density (21C-20C) MJJASO

Tropical storm tracks at 20C and 21(NH)Number/month as a function of max. intensity: 

Tropical storm tracks at 20C and 21(NH) Number/month as a function of max. intensity Extreme storms Total nr (90 y)

Tropical vorticesNH(0, 35N, gen. 0, 20N) May through October: 

Tropical vortices NH(0, 35N, gen. 0, 20N) May through October

Number of eddies as a function of max. intensity, Atlantic sector: 8-35N, 50-85W: 

Number of eddies as a function of max. intensity, Atlantic sector: 8-35N, 50-85W 20C 21C Unit: 10-5s-1

Number of eddies as a function of max. intensity, Eastern Pacific: 0-35N, 90-135W: 

Number of eddies as a function of max. intensity, Eastern Pacific: 0-35N, 90-135W

Number of eddies as a function of max. intensity, Western Pacific: 0-35N, 110-180E: 

Number of eddies as a function of max. intensity, Western Pacific: 0-35N, 110-180E

Changes in the NH Tropics: 

Changes in the NH Tropics Slight reduction in the number of tropical storms No overall increase in intensity in spite of a SST warming by 2-3°C Reduced activity in the Atlantic sector and a southward movement of the east Pacific storm track

Attempts towards an interpretation of the apparent contrary results between GCM results and theoretical assessments based on local conditions: 

Attempts towards an interpretation of the apparent contrary results between GCM results and theoretical assessments based on local conditions Large scale effects: Increasing SSTs reduce the moist adiabatic lapse rate (because of more moisture) providing a larger warming in the upper troposphere This creates an enhanced northward temperature gradient through the troposphere. The effect of this is to increase (through the thermal wind equation) the vertical wind shear particular in the regions where tropical storm amplify High vertical wind shear counteracts tropical storm amplification

SST changes 21C - 20 C: 

SST changes 21C - 20 C

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