charts 2007 01 24

Executive Board meeting24 January 2007: 

Executive Board meeting 24 January 2007

Growth forecasts Consensus ForecastsGDP. Percentage change from previous year: 

Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts GDP. Percentage change from previous year 2006 2007 Source: Consensus Forecasts

House prices1) and housing starts in the US Seasonally adjusted. 12-month change.2) January 2003 – December 2006: 

House prices1) and housing starts in the US Seasonally adjusted. 12-month change.2) January 2003 – December 2006 1) Median price for dwellings 2) 3-month moving average Existing dwellings New dwellings Housing starts Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Norges Bank

Oil prices, futures prices and commodity prices 1 January 2002 – 22 January 2007: 

Oil prices, futures prices and commodity prices 1 January 2002 – 22 January 2007 22 January 2007 Sources: Telerate, IPE, Reuters EcoWin and Norges Bank 26 October IR 3/06 Copper Nickel Aluminium Zinc Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel Commodity prices In USD. Indices, 1 January 2002 = 100

CPI/HICP core 12-month change. Per cent. January 1997 – December 2006: 

CPI/HICP core 12-month change. Per cent. January 1997 – December 2006 Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Eurostat and national statistical offices UK1) US2) Euro area1) Japan2) 1) HICP excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco 2) CPI excl. food and energy Sweden1)

Equities Indices,1 January 2006 = 100. 1 January 2006 – 22 January 2007: 

Equities Indices,1 January 2006 = 100. 1 January 2006 – 22 January 2007 Euro area US Japan Norway Sources: STOXX, S&P500, Nikkei, Oslo Stock Exchange and Reuters EcoWin Emerging markets

10-year yield in different countries Per cent. 1 January 2006 – 22 January 2007: 

10-year yield in different countries Per cent. 1 January 2006 – 22 January 2007 Norway US Germany Sweden UK Sources: Reuters and Bloomberg

Expected 5-year yield five years aheadPer cent. 2 January 2002 – 22 January 2007: 

Expected 5-year yield five years ahead Per cent. 2 January 2002 – 22 January 2007 Source: Norges Bank

Slide9: 

Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area Sweden UK Key rates and forward rates IR 3/06 and 22 January 2007

3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)1) January 2002 – December 2009: 

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank I-44 (right-hand scale) Weighted interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 31 October 2006 (IR 3/06) 22 January 2007 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)1) January 2002 – December 2009 Average 1 – 22 January 2007

CPI and uncertainty interval for underlying inflation1) 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – December 2006: 

CPI and uncertainty interval for underlying inflation1) 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – December 2006 Highest indicator Lowest indicator Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank CPI 1) Highest and lowest indicators of the CPI-ATE, the weighted median and the 20% trimmed mean

CPI-ATE1)Total and by supplier sector2). 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – December 2006: 

CPI-ATE1) Total and by supplier sector2). 12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – December 2006 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Domestically produced goods and services (0.7) Imported consumer goods (0.3) CPI-ATE 1) CPI-ATE adjusted for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. 2) Norges Bank's estimates.

UnemploymentLFS unemployment and registered unemployed. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. February 1983 - December 2006: 

Unemployment LFS unemployment and registered unemployed. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. February 1983 - December 2006 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norwegian Labour and Welfare Organisation (NAV) LFS unemployment Registered unemployed

Employment (LFS)1)In 1000s. Seasonally adjusted. January 2005 – October 2006: 

Source: Statistics Norway Employment (LFS)1) In 1000s. Seasonally adjusted. January 2005 – October 2006 1) The changes to the LFS resulted in a break in the time series between 2005 and 2006.

Manufacturing output index Volume. Index. 3-month moving average. January 2001 – November 2006: 

Manufacturing output index Volume. Index. 3-month moving average. January 2001 – November 2006 Consumer goods Intermediate goods Capital goods Source: Statistics Norway

Enterprise sector credit1) and liquid assets2) 12-month growth. Per cent. January 2002 – November 2006 (C3 to October): 

Enterprise sector credit1) and liquid assets2) 12-month growth. Per cent. January 2002 – November 2006 (C3 to October) 1) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C3). 2) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M2). Money supply (M2) Source: Statistics Norway Total credit (C3)

Index of commodity consumption Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Index, 1995 = 100. January 2004 – November 2006: 

Index of commodity consumption Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Index, 1995 = 100. January 2004 – November 2006 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

House prices and household debt12-month change. Per cent. January 2001 – December 2006 (C2 to November): 

House prices and household debt 12-month change. Per cent. January 2001 – December 2006 (C2 to November) House prices Household debt (C2) Sources: Norwegian Assoc. of Real Estate Agents, Assoc. of Real Estate Agency Firms, Finn.no, ECON and Norges Bank

Construction cost index for residential buildings12-month rise. Per cent. January 2001 – December 2006: 

Construction cost index for residential buildings 12-month rise. Per cent. January 2001 – December 2006 Source: Statistics Norway

Slide20: 

Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario and estimated forward rates1) Per cent. At 22 January 2007 Market 22 January 2007 Market before IR 3/06 (31 October) Baseline scenario IR 3/06 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank 1) In the calculation, a credit risk premium and a technical difference of 0.20 percentage point have been deducted to make the forward rates comparable with the sight deposit rate.

Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report 3/06: 

Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report 3/06 The Executive Board’s assessment is that the sight deposit rate should be in the interval 3¼ - 4¼ per cent in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 15 March 2007, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections. The interest rate may gradually be raised to a more normal level at a somewhat faster pace than envisaged earlier, although it is unlikely that rates will be raised at every monetary policy meeting. In the light of our current assessment, the interest rate will thus continue to be raised in small, not too frequent steps.

Baseline scenario in Inflation Report 3/06: 

Baseline scenario in Inflation Report 3/06 Import-weighted exchange rate CPI-ATE Output gap Sight deposit rate Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Executive Board meeting24 January 2007: 

Executive Board meeting 24 January 2007