Strong

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Precipitated by hailstorm studies conducted during AHP (central Alberta), 1974-85 continuing concerns over severe storms such as the ― - Edmonton Tornado (31 July 1987) - Pine Lake Tornado (14 July 2000) - Rapidly-increasing population base in central Alberta Background to STABLE * Pat McCarthy ( Severe Thunderstorm Atmospheric Boundary Layer Experiment) UN * Julian Brimelow UNified Pat’s 2001 Ideas: organize a LIMEX-type field experiment NW of Calgary to investigate severe storm initiation over the foothills.

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Alberta Hail Project (AHP) operations area, 1974-85. - predecessor was ALHAS, 1957-73 LIMEX-85 mesoscale surface/upperair network (July/85) AHP Research: mainly focussed on cloud microphysics (aircraft) and cloud-scale processes (radar), supporting hail suppression (weather modification) operations . . . . . . . until . . . .    

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LIMEX-85 funding only for 2 weeks – Best case study was 11 July 1985 Vagaries of Weather can destroy best-laid field plans -

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GAPS in our KNOWLEDGE and DATA* SCIENCE 1. Detailed mesoscale ABL quantification - role of capping lid, local ET, convergence. 2. Perturbations in drylines and the LLJ, relation to capping lid. 3. Quantitative analyses of temporal/spatial characteristics of prairie storms. 4. Improved objective forecast techniques. 5. Improved ABL simulation by NWP and mesoscale models. DATA 6. Operational soundings over Alberta foothills. 7. More accurate severe weather reports - develop new data systems (lightning, GPS,..). 8. Quantification of the capping lid, drylines, and LLJ over central/eastern prairies. 9. Accurate regional estimates of ET, inputs to models. 10. Severe storm data archives (of all data types) tailored to case study research. RESEARCHERS and FUNDING 11. No infrastructure to fund and/or coordinate research efforts - self-defeating (low funding >> little collaboration >> less funding). * Strong & Smith, 2001 - a literature and consulting survey of prairie convective storms

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Satellite image showing a boundary layer moisture boundary of unknown origin leading to development of the severe weather phase of the Pine Lake tornado. (Image courtesy of Scott Bachmeier, U. of Wisconsin). Wilson and Schreiber (1986) study - 95% of storms with reflectivities greater than 60 dBZ were associated with boundary interactions. Why the UNSTABLE focus on the ABL?

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The 2002 UNSTABLE Proposal Submitted a Proposal for UNSTABLE to CFCAS in Feb. 2002 University Co-Investigators: G.S. Strong & Julian Brimelow, Univ. of Alberta John M. Hanesiak, Ken Snelgrove, & Tim Papakyriakou, Univ. of Manitoba Government & Other Collaborators: Paul Joe, Stewart Cober, Dave Sills, Norman Donaldson, & Pat King, MSC/MRB, Downsview/King City Jocelyn Mailhot, MSC/MRB/RPN, Dorval, Quebec Louis Lefaivre, MSC/CMC, Dorval, Quebec Brad Shannon/Gary Burke, MSC/PNR, Calgary/Edmonton Barry Goodison, MSC/CRB, Downsview, ON Terry Krauss, Weather Modification Incorporated, Red Deer, Alberta Arjen Verkaik, SkyArt Incorporated, Elmwood, Ontario

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UNSTABLE Goals - Improve our understanding of atmospheric and hydrologic processes leading to convective storms. - Understand the role of these storms in the prairie water balance. - Contribute to the improvement of storm prediction techniques and of numerical weather prediction models. - Primary Focus on the ABL

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OBJECTIVES 1. Quantification of Surface Heat and Moisture Fluxes – Hanesiak, Papakyriakou, Snelgrove, Joe, Raddatz, + 1-2 graduate students. A-1: Temporal/spatial dimensions of surface energy fluxes, role in storm initiation. A-2: Linkages between convective precipitation and surface energy/water balance. 2. Quantification of Boundary Layer Processes – Strong, Brimelow, Hanesiak, Joe, Lefaivre, Mailhot, Sills, Krauss, Verkaik, plus 2 graduate students. B-1: Location, strength, areal coverage, and duration of capping lids. B-2: Quantify processes creating mesoscale boundaries (drylines, etc.). 3. Quantification of Boundary Layer Interactions with the Free Atmosphere – Strong, Snelgrove, Mailhot, Lefaivre, Joe, and 1 graduate student. C-1: Importance of UJ/LJ coupling in storm initiation, and energy transfers.

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CFCAS Criteria Addressed in Proposal 1. Science 2. Expertise 3. Targeted Research 4. National Contribution 5. Need for CFCAS Funds 6. Collaboration Proposal Evaluation from CFCAS - mentioned that the Board took into account: 1. our case made in the letter (of intent) 2. Nature and importance of proposed research 3. Strength of the research team 4. Fit with CFCAS priorities 5. CFCAS investments in other major initiatives

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What is new (in 2006) since the 2002 Proposal? PROS - Numerical model predictions have improved, but still need tuning Remote sensing capabilities improved, especially - GPS PW (UofC GPS receiver network, 4th year) - AIRES (Hanesiak, UofMan) - Lightning network (CLN) - more recent background field studies (A-GAME) - Strong continuing to carry out surface transects (2003-06) 3. Some new automated surface sites added (FOPEX, etc.) 4. MSC/MRB is prepared to take the leading role CONS - Less funding available for fieldwork  fewer new scientists working in this field 2. Experience/expertise is disappearing

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Alberta HAIL Climatology Spatial Variation Seasonal Variation (after Wojtiw, 1975)

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HAIL Climatology for Canada (after Etkin & Brun, 2000)

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Proposed UNSTABLE Radiosonde Field Research Network

Study Area: 

Study Area

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GEM-model (MOLTS) Sounding Sites - Study would include detailed water balance for the Saskatchewan River Basin

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The Problem

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FOPEX Sites and surrounding Topography

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Revision to the Multi-scale Conceptual Model of Severe Alberta Thunderstorms Interaction of Drylines and the Capping Lid

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Summarize Necessary Research, Challenges, and Development - Prioritize Necessity for Following Data Types (0-5) Priorities: 5 – very high; 4 – high; 3 – medium; 2 – low; 1 – slight; 0 - nil.

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MILESTONES BUDGET

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Planning Meeting GOALS G-1 Assess what we know about prairie storms; a) climatology; b) processes; c) forecasting and modeling. G-2 Identify main gaps in both the science and data systems; G-3 Define what key research needs to be done, including any necessary field plans to accomplish objective(s). G-4 Formulate a plan to complete these tasks. General discussion to summarize assessment, gaps, and R&D requirements (can use attached table). Long-term plan – Formulate potential strategy for a 5-7-year plan for prairie convective studies Short-term plan – Identify how and where UNSTABLE fits into this plan Identify potential funding agencies Draft revised skeleton proposal Presentations - try to address goals G-1 TO G-3