2007 Izrael

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Role of stratospheric aerosols in antagonizing the Climate Global Warming: Role of stratospheric aerosols in antagonizing the Climate Global Warming Academician Yu.A.Izrael, Director of the Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow

Slide2: Факторы, влияющие на изменение климата Наиболее заметно влияние парниковых газов; однако среди других привлекают внимание аэрозоли: тропосферные и особенно стратосферные. Основная естественная причина возникновения стратосферного аэрозольного слоя – вулканы.

Slide3: Radiative Forcing Components

Mon-Pele, et al. (1902 г.): Mon-Pele, et al. (1902 г.) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 S (%) 1902 1903 1904 1905

Direct solar radiation Katmai (1912 г.): Direct solar radiation Katmai (1912 г.) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 S (%) 1911 1912 1913 1914

Slide6: 1982 – El-Chichon 1992 – Pinatubo Di rect Di f fuse

Severe and catastrophic volcanic cruptions in the 18th–20th centuries : Severe and catastrophic volcanic cruptions in the 18th–20th centuries

Slide8: Variation of (a) the tree-ring index (%) at the northern boundary of forest in the Northern Hemisphere and (b) electric conductivity (µ-equiv H+/kg of ice) of the ice core from the Crete glacier (Greenland)

Slide9: Numerical computation of Es from Eq. (2) within the wavelength range 0.3 m 2.5 m for particles with different radii gives the maximal value of average intensity of the flux into space to be 5.23 W/m2 for a particle with radius 0.275 m.

Slide10: Pinatubo (1991). McCormick et al., 1995 R a d I a t I v e f o r c I n g

Slide11: Puttern Pinatubo (1991). (McCormick et al.,1995).

SO2: SO2

Slide13: 1. The method, proposed in this note, is essentially operational (expeditious) and it is in tens-hundreds times cheaper that measures proposed by the “Kyoto method” for achieving the objectives discussed. For a reference: this method was proposed by Russian scientist academician M.I. Budyko in 1974, then it was developed and updated by myself [Izrael, 2005] in connection with extreme necessity to struggle for conservation of the present-day climate. It was published in 2005 [Izrael Yu.A. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology], and later on in my report at the International Conference in Moscow of 2006 [Izrael et al.,]. The problem of such method was raised by the Nobel Prize winner, professor Paul Krutzen in his publication of 2006. It was earlier discussed in common view by outstanding American specialist Edvard Teller. 2. Taking into account a low efficiency of the Kyoto Protocol and significant quantity of both the time and funding for its realization, it is necessary to develop “non-kyoto” methods for conservation of our climate and for struggle against the warming. 3. Some methods those are already published, such as using nuclear energy and energy of renewable resources in the power industry instead of organic fuel where significant time (tens and hundreds of years) together with huge funds will be needed for their efficient use (that is for sufficient provision of the humanity needs).

REFERENCES : REFERENCES M. I. Budyko, Climate Change (Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1974) [in Russian]. Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by R.T. Watson et al. (WMO, Geneva, 2003). Yu. A. Izrael, “Ecological Consequences of a Possible Nuclear War,” Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, No. 10 (1983) [Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 10 (1983)]. Yu. A. Izrael, “An Efficient Way to Regulate Global Climate is the Main Objective of the Solution of the Climate Problem,” Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, No. 10 (2005) [Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 10 (2005)]. Yu. A. Izrael, I. I. Borzenkova, and D. A. Severov, “The Role of Stratospheric Aerosols in the Maintenance of the Present-Day Climate,” in Proceedings of the International Conference on the Problems of Hydrometeorological Safety, September 26–29, 2006, Moscow (Roshydromet, Moscow, 2006). Yu. A. Izrael and S. M. Semenov, “Calculation of a Change in CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere for Some Stabilization Scenarios of Global Emissions Using a Model of Minimal Complexity,” Meteorologiya I Gidrologiya, No. 1 (2005) [Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, No. 1 (2005)]. L. P. Spirina, “On the Influence of Volcanic Dust on Thermal Regime,” Trudy Glavnoi Geofizicheskoi Observatorii, No. 299 (1972) [Trans. Main Geophysical Observatory, No. 299 (1972)].. A.A.Aleksandrov and G. G. Stenchikov, On the Modeling of the Climate Consequences of a Nuclear War (Comp. Center of USSR Acad. Sci., Moscow, 1983) [in Russian]. P. M. McCormick, L. W. Thomason, and C. R. Trepte, “Atmospheric Effect of the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption,” Nature, 373 (1995). Crutzen, Springer 2006, Climate Change. E.Teller, R.Hyde, L.Wood. Active climate stabilization. Apr.19, 2002, Nat.Acad of Eng.Symposium.