AirDir MtgPres Boylan OKEF

Identifying and Ranking Potential Controls for Reasonable Progress Demonstrations (Example: OKEF): 

Identifying and Ranking Potential Controls for Reasonable Progress Demonstrations (Example: OKEF) Jim Boylan and Jimmy Johnston Georgia Department of Natural Resources STAD Meeting Nashville, TN December 5, 2006

Uniform Rate of Progress - OKEF: 

Uniform Rate of Progress - OKEF 106.44 Mm-1 - 104.75 Mm-1 = 1.69 Mm-1

Slide3: 

Green circles indicate 100-km radii from Class I areas. 2002 vs. 2018 SO2 Emissions

Slide4: 

SO4 Weighted Residence Times Green circles indicate 100-km and 200-km radii from Class I area. Red line perimeter indicate Area of Influence with Residence Time andgt; 10%. Orange line perimeter indicate Area of Influence with Residence Time andgt; 5%. Max Bext Value = 317718 Max Value = 72%

Slide5: 

2002 SO2 emissions 2018 SO2 emissions Green circles indicate 100-km and 200-km radii from Class I area. Red line perimeter indicate Area of Influence with Residence Time andgt; 10%. Orange line perimeter indicate Area of Influence with Residence Time andgt; 5%. Max Value = 25% RT_Max * (Q/d) Plots

Initial Policy Decisions: 

Initial Policy Decisions Only look at controls on Individual Sources that meet the following criteria? RTMax andgt; 10 SO2 emissions andgt; 250 tpy  YES SO2 emissions andlt; 250 tpy  NO 5 andlt; RTMax andlt; 10 Q/d andgt; 5 or Q/d2 andgt; 0.03  YES Q/d andlt; 5 and Q/d2 andlt; 0.03  NO RTMax andlt; 5  NO If your state does not agree to these criteria, then you can’t use Stella’s Excel spreadsheets

AoI Spreadsheet Set-Up: 

AoI Spreadsheet Set-Up Define AoI (e.g., RTMax andgt; 5) Multiply RTMax*(Q/d) for each source (i) in AoI xi = RTMaxi*(Qi/di) Normalize xi for each source by sum total of xi for all sources in AoI Fractioni = xi/Sxi Emission sensitivity run with 100% reduction in SO2 emissions in AoI (EGU and non-EGU) EXAMPLE: Sensitivity = 20 Mm-1 at OKEF Apportion 100% SO2 emission sensitivity (Mm-1) to each source by fractional contribution Impacti (Mm-1) = Sensitivity * Fractioni Normalize Impacti by 2018 SO2 emissions  (Mm-1/ton)

AoI Spreadsheet Analysis: 

AoI Spreadsheet Analysis Sort by state and add state color code (optional) Filter: RTMax andgt; 5 (Column P) Sort by Source Impact (T_Mm) in descending order (Column T) Note sources with largest impacts Are 2018 emissions accurate? Filter: CE% andgt; 4% (Column L) Examine 2018 emissions and controls for individual sources Are 2018 projected controls correct? Will IPM projected controls be added to SIP?

2018 Controls Near OKEF: 

2018 Controls Near OKEF

AoI/Cost Spreadsheet Set-Up: 

AoI/Cost Spreadsheet Set-Up Add same four columns from AoI Spreadsheet Control Strategy Impact (Mm-1) Multiply Normalize Impacti (Mm-1/ton) by 2018 tons reduced due to control strategy  R_Mm Cost Analysis (M$/Mm-1) ($/Mm-1) = Costi ($/ton) / Impacti (Mm-1/ton) (M$/Mm-1) = ($/Mm-1)/1,000,000

AoI/Cost Spreadsheet Analysis: 

AoI/Cost Spreadsheet Analysis Sort by state and add state color codes (optional) Sort by Control Impact (R_Mm) in descending order (Column AG) Filter: Tons Reduced andgt; 0 (Column R) Verify that ALL possible control options are included (especially for non-EGUs/non-boilers) Filter: RTMax andgt; 5 (Column Z) Filter: Cost Curve Flag = FALSE (Column AA) Quality Assurance of Control Options Are control costs accurate? Are possible controls technically feasible? Are control efficiencies accurate?

Policy Decisions (Option 1): 

Policy Decisions (Option 1) Filter: $/ton andlt; Threshold (Column U) Different values based on meeting URP? $1,200/ton vs. $3,000/ton vs. $10,000/ton Include EGUs or ignore EGUs (CAIR=RPG)? Filter: SIC Description (Column L) Filter: 'R_Mm' andgt; 0.02 Mm-1 (Column AG) 'Significant' benefit

Impacts at OKEF ($/ton < 3000): 

Impacts at OKEF ($/ton andlt; 3000)

Policy Decisions (Option 2): 

Policy Decisions (Option 2) Filter: M$/Mm-1 andlt; Threshold (Column AH) Different values based on meeting URP? $50M/Mm-1 vs. $100M/Mm-1 vs. $200M/Mm-1 Include EGUs or ignore EGUs (CAIR=RPG)? Filter: SIC Description (Column L) Filter: 'R_Mm' andgt; 0.02 Mm-1 (Column AG) 'Significant' benefit Filter: $/ton andlt; Threshold (Column U) Remove 'unreasonable' controls based on $/ton Example: $10,000/ton

Impacts at OKEF (M$/Mm-1 < 200): 

Impacts at OKEF (M$/Mm-1 andlt; 200)

Top Florida Sources at OKEF: 

Top Florida Sources at OKEF Option 1 andamp; Option 2 CEDAR BAY GENERATING COMPANY L P – GEN 1 Already FGD? PROGRESS ENERGY - CRYSTAL RIVER – Units 1-2 CITY OF GAINESVILLE, GRU DEERHAVEN – Unit 5 Option 1 only ($/ton) GULF POWER COMPANY – CRIST – Unit 6 Option 2 only ($/Mm-1) JEFFERSON SMURFIT CORPORATION (US) GEORGIA-PACIFIC CORP. PULP/PAPER MILL

Top Georgia Sources at OKEF: 

Top Georgia Sources at OKEF Option 1 andamp; Option 2 GEORGIA POWER COMPANY, SCHERER - Units 1-4 INTERNATIONAL PAPER - SAVANNAH MILL SAVANNAH ELECTRIC: MCINTOSH – Unit 1 SAVANNAH ELECTRIC: KRAFT – Unit 3 GEORGIA POWER COMPANY, YATES – Units 5-7 GEORGIA POWER COMPANY, MITCHELL – Unit 3 SOUTHERN STATES PHOSPHATE andamp; FERTILIZER Option 1 only ($/ton) GEORGIA POWER COMPANY, YATES – Units 4 Option 2 only ($/Mm-1) none

Top SC Sources at OKEF: 

Top SC Sources at OKEF Option 1 andamp; Option 2 SCEandamp;G:CANADYS – Units 1-2 SANTEE COOPER JEFFERIES – Units 3-4 Option 1 only ($/ton) PROGRESS ENERGY ROBINSON STATION – Unit 1 SCEandamp;G:MCMEEKIN – Unit 1 Option 2 only ($/Mm-1) none

State Decisions: 

State Decisions States define sources for which 4 statutory factors will be analyzed. Look at source-specific costs, existing controls, remaining useful life, environmental and energy impacts States define which sources will be run in VISTAS control strategy for each Class I area.

Jim Boylan, Ph.D.Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources4244 International Parkway, Suite 120Atlanta, GA 30354james_boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851: 

Jim Boylan, Ph.D. Georgia Dept. of Natural Resources 4244 International Parkway, Suite 120 Atlanta, GA 30354 james_boylan@dnr.state.ga.us 404-362-4851 Contact Information