waradapt

Socio-ecological Adaptive Choices of Climate Changes in Ancient China, 1000-1910 A.D.: 

David D. Zhang*, George C.S. Lin, Yuanqing He, & Harry Lee Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road, Hong Kong CARERI, Chinese Academy of Science, Lanzhou, China Socio-ecological Adaptive Choices of Climate Changes in Ancient China, 1000-1910 A.D.

Content: 

Content Introduction Methodology Results Discussion & Conclusion

Introduction: 

Introduction What are the socio-ecological adaptive choices? History of China: Dynastic cycle, alternation of order & disorder Climate change research: High resolution results Current research

Theoretical Model for this research: 

Theoretical Model for this research

What are the socio-ecological adaptive choices under climate change in ancient China?: 

What are the socio-ecological adaptive choices under climate change in ancient China? Our hypotheses: A. Under ecological stress caused by climate change: War, dynastic change, southward migration B. Under ecological harmony caused by stable climate: Peace, stable and unity of country, northward migration

Methodology (Approach: Both Quantitative & Qualitative): 

Methodology (Approach: Both Quantitative & Qualitative) 1. High Resolution Palaeotemp. Variation From the latest publications (e.g. Science, Nature, and other top journals) Including Briffa, Mann, Jones, Bradley, and others Division of cold and mild phases

Palaeotemp. records and the division of cold & warm phases: 

Palaeotemp. records and the division of cold & warm phases Five independent research results (Science, 2002)

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2. War Records Most completed record from the Chinese Military Academy (~1700 wars) Only the information about the year of inception & location of wars will be used. No. of participants will not be relied on due to possible bias from historical documents War classification

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3. Population Records Most reliable population data from 1741 – 1850A.D. because of the establishment of “Baojia System” (保甲制) in China

Result 1 A. paleotemperature records; B. Frequency of total (blue) and rebellion (red) wars; C. Frequencies of wars in North China (black), Central China (red) and South China (green): 

Result 1 A. paleotemperature records; B. Frequency of total (blue) and rebellion (red) wars; C. Frequencies of wars in North China (black), Central China (red) and South China (green)

Result 2: 

Result 2 Pearson’s correlation coefficients between the lowest temperature anomalies and the highest war frequencies in each phase Pearson’s correlation coefficients between average temperature anomalies and the highest war frequencies in each phase

Result 3: 

Result 3 Pearson’s correlation coefficients between annual temperature anomalies and annual war records

Result 4: 

Result 4 Correlation between the annual temperature anomaly and the annual war number of North China during the period without northern tribe occupation

Result 5: 

Result 5 The relationships between climate phases, war and dynastic changes

Result 6: 

Result 6 Population change in the eastern China based on the official data

Discussion & Conclusion: 

Discussion & Conclusion 1. War Frequency & Temperature Changes Reduction of thermal energy input in cold periods has reduced productivity of land in agrarian society, so that weakened state power and brought about famine. Wars was likely erupt, especially rebellion wars and northern tribe invasions. “Warfare was an adaptive ecological choice under limitation of resources and increase of population”.

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2. Geographical Pattern Wars in North and Central China significantly correlated to temperature changes because their land are ecologically sensitive to climate change. War’s reaction to temperature changes has a lag time, whose length depends on the type of agricultural products in different regions.

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3. Dynastic cycle and climate change Temperature change is closely associated with the frequency of wars because of changes of livelihood resource supply and the shortage of the resources in cold periods could lead to outbreak of wars. The outbreak of wars, of course, would further weaken state power, and eventually causes the collapse of dynasties. The start and end of a dynastic cycle and the alteration of order and disorder periods were basically followed the climatic cycles.

4. Migration: 

4. Migration The population percentage changes between in the South and North reflected that population shifting is a choice to adapt climate change. The trend of such adaptive choice was also observed by other authors, Such as Fang (1990) and Chang (1946).

Slide21: 

Now, we are in the warmest climatic phase during the last millennium, another extreme of climate variation, and expect faster and greater rise of temperature in the near future. We have, at least in the last millennium, never experienced such warming situation and its impacts to us will be greater than before because both natural and anthropogenic forces are involved. In spite of technological changes, most of world’s population will continue to be relied on small-scale agriculture, which is similarly vulnerable to climatic fluctuations as the historical societies studied here. Further more, in an increasingly crowded world, habitat-tracking as an adaptive response will not be an option (Weiss and Bradley, 2001). We hope that such global warming would not cause a turbulent world.

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Thank You!