PURI SCAG Presentation 111601 1

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Slide1: 

Southern California Association of Governments November 16, 2001 Presented by Anil K. Puri, Ph.D. Dean, College of Business and Economics California State University, Fullerton Regional Economic Forecast 2002-2003

Slide2: 

09.11.01

Slide3: 

Consumer Confidence Index

Slide4: 

Rates of Unemployment

Slide5: 

GDP Growth and Index of Leading Indicators

Slide6: 

Before September 11, 2001 Active Housing Markets Income Tax Rebates Steady Consumer Spending Federal Rate Cuts

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Two Views Of The Future One: Extended military action lasting many months, possibly years Huge security costs, lower productivity Severe and lasting cutbacks in consumer spending

Slide8: 

Two Views Of The Future Two: Limited Duration War Stimulative monetary and fiscal policies Consumer spending to recover by early 2002.

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Setting the Stage For Recovery… Expansionary Monetary Policy Fiscal Stimulus Low Inflation Inventory Correction Postponed Investment Decisions

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Federal Funds Rate Changes

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Fiscal Stimulus Tax Rebates = $ 35 billions Airlines Rescue = $15 billions New York City = $40 billions Proposed: Tax Cuts/Spending = $75 – $100 billions

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Business Productivity, 1992 = 100

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Real GDP Growth Quarterly at Annual Rates

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‘01 ‘02 ‘03 GDP 1.0 1.6 3.8 Unemployment % 4.9 5.8 5.3 10 Yr. Bond Rate 5.0 5.5 6.2 Inflation (CPI) 3.1 2.6 2.5 Housing Starts (Mil.) 1.6 1.4 1.5 National Economic Scenario

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Southern California

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Payroll Employment Index 1988 = 100

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Monthly Payroll Job Growth, LA and OC Year-Over-Year, Index: January 2000 = 100

Slide18: 

Los Angeles Employment Growth

Slide19: 

Payroll Employment Growth

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Riverside-San Bernardino Payroll Employment Growth

Slide21: 

Orange County Payroll Employment Increase

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Payroll Employment Growth Selected Orange County Sectors

Slide23: 

Tourism Sector Employment as Share of Total Southern California, 2000

Slide24: 

Personal Income Percentage Change, Southern California

Slide25: 

Taxable Sales Percentage Change, Southern California

Slide26: 

Housing Prices, Index 1990 = 100

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Summary