5016965 russia and kyoto sdm

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Russia and Kyoto The emergence of Russian corporate and public interest : 

Russia and Kyoto The emergence of Russian corporate and public interest Carbon Finance 2004 Markets, credits, and trading systems 25 February 2004 Steven Messner Steven.messner@atkinsglobal.com

Russia and Kyoto The Agenda: 

Russia and Kyoto The Agenda How much is Russia needed? How will they get there? Internal issues External negotiations JI Projects Can they be trusted? Inventory Business climate

Kyoto Surplus: 

Kyoto Surplus How much Russian surplus will really exist by Kyoto period? Countries with projected surplus allowances by 2010: Poland Czech Rep Romania Countries with projected deficits: Hungary Germany France Others of interest UK (-10), Spain (+70), Italy (+50), Belgium (+33), Netherlands (+26) Russia – currently nearly (-1000) !

Kyoto Surplus – GHG trading saviour or bogey man?: 

Kyoto Surplus – GHG trading saviour or bogey man? EU Business – desire low cost credits EU NGO’s – want real reductions Governments – want optimum compromise But what will Russian emissions really be by 2010?

Russian Academy of Sciences Study: 

Russian Academy of Sciences Study Commissioned by President after September 2003 conference Driven by academics Watched by politicians (including Andrei Illarionov) Two expert groups – economic and natural Experts have developed several energy forecasts through 2020 Some show little or no surplus by 2010 Some show Kyoto levels (1990) not reached until 2020 Further discussions this week

Russian IACCC: 

Russian IACCC Interagency Climate Change Commission of the Russian Federation Lead Government entity for Climate Change issues Developing National JI Regulation JI working group is key www.JI-com.com JI co-ordination centre to be formed Business Community Input Gazprom RAO UES TNK-BP SUAL Holding

JI Projects: 

JI Projects 12 EofI’s to Senter in January 2004 Mainly energy related 1 biomass (wood chip waste) 2 District Heating 1 waste management – landfill gas 1 project previously under consideration – pulp & paper Russian industry needs extensive modernization How do you separate GHG project from other needs?

JI Projects – future plans: 

JI Projects – future plans IACCC marketing initiative mid 2004 Russian JI Project Portfolio Supported by Business Sectors Power & Heat Metallurgical Oil & Gas Refining Market focus: Italy Germany Dutch Senter/EBRD Austria New European Carbon Fund

JI Projects – key issues: 

JI Projects – key issues Project Co-financing Where will it come from? Can it be trusted? Baselines, additionality (potential reductions of 400-900 million tonnes?) Inventory UNDP project RUS/02/014/11/A/99 Perceived EU bias against Russian/FSU JI projects – 86% of linkage projects to CDM


Politics Past Kyoto linkage to any variety of issues WTO Kaliningrad American elections Now waiting for Russian elections 14 March When will they sign? Regional support – 1/3 of oblasts Growing public awareness in west regions – record winter in Moscow


Conclusions Stronger linkage to business growth issues - JI Volume of ERU’s less than previously believed Western regions already support Kyoto Russian timetable to ratification better known after March 2004 My prediction

Atkins and SAIC: 

Atkins and SAIC Strategic Climate Change Alliance formed Atkins strengths – industrial applications in UK, Europe, CEE, FSU, Middle East EU ETS JI, CDM Technical and Energy Efficiency SAIC strengths – government and industry work in US, Canada, Latin America, India GHG inventory (US) since 1993 GHG project registry (1605 b) JI and CDM infrastructure Combined team of over 20 CC professionals Steven.messner@atkinsglobal.com Tel: +44-1372-756029

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