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“One if by land, two if by sea. . .” Documenting, Mapping, and Predicting the Invasion of Non-native Plants, Animals, and Diseases in the United States. Mike Ielmini (USFWS), John Schnase and Jim Smith (NASA), Pam Fuller, Josh Dein, John Sauer, Carl Korcshgen, Linda Leake, Doug Posson, Anne Frondorf, Tom Muir, Bill Gregg, Sue Haseltine, Tom Owen, (USGS), John Kartesz (UNC), Jim Quinn (UCD), Ken Stolte (USFS) and many more. Tom Stohlgren, USGS Midcontinent Ecological Science Center, Fort Collins, CO and Research Team Geneva Chong and Catherine Crosier (USGS) Mohammed Kalkhan, Robin Reich, Dave Barnett, Sara Simonson, and Rick Shory (CSU)

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Invasive Species: The Top Environmental Issue of the 21st Century Economic costs ($138 Billion/year). Environmental costs (40% of Threatened and Endangered Species, many native species declines). Human-health costs (West Nile Virus, Aids, malaria, others on the way). Increased unintentional spread, or threat of ecological terrorism (hoof-and-mouth, mad cow disease, crop pathogens). Notorious examples include Dutch elm disease, chestnut blight, and purple loosestrife in the northeast; kudzu, Brazilian peppertree, water hyacinth, nutria, and fire ants in the southeast; zebra mussels, leafy spurge, and Asian long-horn beetles in the Midwest; salt cedar, Russian olive, and Africanized bees in the southwest; yellow star thistle, European wild oats, oak wilt disease, Asian clams, and white pine blister rust in California; cheatgrass, various knapweeds and thistles in the Great Basin; whirling disease of salmonids in the northwest; hundreds of invasive species from microbes to mammals in Hawaii; and the brown tree snake in Guam. Hundreds new each year!

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Why Us, Why Now? There are many data collectors, but few scientists who specialize in data synthesis and predictive modeling at multiple scales. The USGS, with the cooperation of many partners, is uniquely qualified to lead invasive species research that integrates species traits, vulnerability of populations and habitats to invasion, early detection, risk analysis, and predictive models for “ecological forecasting.” There is extreme urgency at local, regional, and national scales – the invasion is not only underway, it is accelerating and we’re unprepared.

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Why Us, Why Right Now? Our expanded research team was tired of writing “white papers, budget initiatives, and progress reports on “case studies.” We want to accomplish much more! Clients (USFWS, BLM, USFS, NPS, states) demanded that we synthesis data, design new surveys and monitoring methods, and rapidly develop predictive models for better early detection and control of many invasive species. We approached several colleagues to begin a “data cooperative” of sorts – the first nation-wide collection of data on non-native plants, animals, and diseases integrated with new capabilities for the predictive modeling of species, populations, and habitats at multiple scales. The response has been incredible! We must seize the moment!

On the Policy Front:: 

On the Policy Front: The U.S. is beginning the development of the “Implementation Plan for the National Invasive Species Management Plan.” APHIS is suggesting strong policy changes regarding the import of plants and animals. There is increasing awareness of the effects of rapid biological invasions. “Needed: A National Center For Biological Invasions By Don Schmitz and Dan Simberloff” Issues in Science And Technology Summer 2001        DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE   Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service   7 CFR Part 330 [Docket No. 95-095-2] RIN 05789-AA80 Plant Pest Regulations; Update of Current Provisions   AGENCY: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, USDA. ACTION: Proposed Rule.

On the Science Front:: 

On the Science Front: Better survey and monitoring techniques have been developed. (multi-phase, multi-scale, nested-intensity designs). Better modeling techniques have been developed. More access and uses of high performance computing capabilities (Beowulf clusters, supercomputers, leased power). Fewer barriers exist to sharing data.

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Current information capabilities: analysis and outreach, primarily with USGS data Geographic Approach (slightly better funded, but locally scaled) Taxonomic Approach (grossly under-funded, but national scale)

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Improving capabilities for synthesis, research, and outreach, with data from all sources

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Data Synergies: inputs for early detection, risk assessment, and “ecological forecasting” models

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Data Synergies: Weeds in Colorado

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Distributed Web-net

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Current Predictive Modeling Capabilities

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Field Data: Early detection or monitoring data, from many sources. Web-ware: Develop multivariate model, screen and normalize data, test for tolerance/multi-colinearity, and run combinatorial screening. Test residuals for auto-correlation and cross-correlation (Morans-I) and find the best models. If spatial autocorrelation exists, run kriging or co-kriging models. Develop map of models uncertainty (maps with standard errors). Produce maps of current distributions, potential distributions, and vulnerable habitats, with known levels of uncertainty. ArcView: Input satellite data, via new sensors or change detection models. 1. 2. 3. Future “Ecological Forecasting” Models: Far more automated, instantaneous, and continuous! OR Repeat Step 1 – always be looking for new data

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What do clients want? Pick and click on any point, land management unit, county, state, or region and determine The current invasion, and vulnerability to future invasion by many species. (help public and private land managers).

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Musk thistle Cardus iforgotus Refuge: LaCreek Wildlife Refuge South Dakota Updated:10/02/02 Regional zoom? Metadata? Plot data? Control Info? Yes Yes Map Uncertainty? Yes Yes Zoom? Yes Yes

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Or . . . Pick and click on any species or group of species, and get current distributions, potential distributions, potential rates of change, and levels of uncertainty. (We have much to learn here! HPCC example on West Nile Virus).

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Solutions Obstacles 5. Dedication combined with enthusiasm and perseverance. 1. Lack of data sharing. 2. Uncoordinated budget process (DOI, USDA, Commerce). 5. Urgency combined with inadequate funding. 1. Incentives, support, rewards for sharing. 2. Joint budget committee, share “line items” ideas. 3. Computing power, leaving the “PC stage.” 3. Beowulf clusters, supercomputer use. 4. Modeling spatial and temporal variation simultaneously. 4. “Frontiers of science” challenge.

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A growing list of partners: U.S. Geological Survey: T. Stohlgren, G. Chong, and C. Crosier (Midcontinent Ecological Science Center, plants, data management), J. Sauer (Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, birds, mammals), P. Fuller (Florida Caribbean Science Center, fish), J. Dein (National Wildlife Health Center, diseases), C. Korschgen (Columbia Environmental Research Center, web-tools), L. Leake ( Upper Midwest Environmental Science Center, data management), T. Owen (Center for Biological Informatics, information mapping), A. Frondorf (Reston Office, high-performance computing), M. Ruggiero (Integrated Taxonomic Information System, taxonomy, synonyms), W. Gregg (Invasive Species Coordinator, Reston Office). T. Muir, R. Westbrooks (early detection), S. Haseltine (HQ). U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service: M. Ielmini (Washington Office, Wildlife Refuges), W. King (Region 6 Wildlife Refuges). Biota of North America Program, University of North Carolina: J. Kartesz and M. Nishiko (plants). National Park Service: G. Williams (Inventory and Monitoring), C. Axtell (Biological Resource Management Division); M. Wotawa (Biological Inventories and NPSpecies). U.S. Forest Service: K. Stolte (Forest Health Monitoring Program). National Aeronautics and Space Administration: J. Schnase and J. Smith and several others (ecological forecasting, high-performance computing, remote sensing and modeling). Colorado State University/Natural Resources Ecology Laboratory: M. Kalkhan and R. Reich (Spatial modeling), D. Barnett, S. Simonson, R. Shory (data management, outreach). University of California, Davis: J. Quinn (information management, modeling). Long Term Ecological Research (LTER): J. Gosz Colorado Natural Heritage Program: B. Strom (director), A. Black (GIS specialist) Center for Environmental Management of Military Lands: B. Shaw The Nature Conservancy: A. Bartuska, J. Randall State of Colorado: E. Lane (State Weed Coordinator), B. Cheatum (GIS) Agriculture Experiment Station: L. Sommers

Leveraging Funds, Data, and Expertise: 

Leveraging Funds, Data, and Expertise Funds: USFWS ($166K, $266K), NASA ($250K, $250K, $250K), BRD ($50K), USGS Venture Capital ($35K), MESC ($5K), State of Colorado Agriculture Experiment Station ($28K, $25K, $25K). Expertise: USGS (6 centers), NASA, EDC, CSU, USFWS, BONAP, NPS, TNC, BLM, NPS, CEMML, UCD, UWY, State of Colorado, LTER, ITIS, APHIS, CNHP, Students and post-docs. Data: USGS (6 centers), USFWS, BONAP, NPS, TNC, BLM, NPS, CEMML, UCD, UWY, USFS (FHM), State of Colorado, LTER, APHIS, and CNHP. No new USGS FTEs data =$multiple millions Few USGS funds

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“One if by land, two if by sea. . .” Documenting, Mapping, and Predicting the Invasion of Non-native Plants, Animals, and Diseases in the United States. The Future: It’s What We Make It! Many more partnerships (DoD, CDC, APHIS, many universities, more states, and more agency offices). Joint budget initiatives and proposals (coordinating at higher levels in each agency). More shared expertise (data base design, web tools, metadata, parallel processing and programming, HPCC staff, additional modeling approaches). More staff (discussing Ph.D. and post-doc options with several students, EDC, NBII, and APHIS). “Status and Trends of the Nation’s Invasive Species” A much larger “Invasive Species” program in the USGS – one of our 8 future science activities (We can’t do it alone, but we can do it together!)

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