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Cape Recovery Plan Update and Winter Plans 2006: 

Cape Recovery Plan Update and Winter Plans 2006 Jacob Maroga 31 May 2006


Objectives Recap Cape Recovery challenges and key mitigating activities Provide a progress update on Cape Recovery activities Outline the medium term Cape Recovery initiatives Outline winter plans and risks for 2006

Western Cape Network – Load and Capacity: 

Western Cape Network – Load and Capacity Eskom Peaking Generation 400 MW Palmiet Note: The above excludes The City of Cape Town’s generation Load Winter Max : 4250 MW Summer Max : 3900 MW Transmission Capacity 2400 -2800 Koeberg Generation 1800 MW

Predicted Weekly Shortfall: 

Predicted Weekly Shortfall Shortfall Risk: 300 to 400 MW during morning and evening peaks Unit 1 Unit 1 and 2 Unit 2 This week

Key Recovery Activities: 

Key Recovery Activities Supply / Capacity Recovery Activities Koeberg Generation Transmission Grid Leased-in Generation Demand / Load Reduction Activities Energy Saving programmes Demand Side Management Demand Market Participation Load Shedding When demand exceeds supply

Progress – Koeberg repairs on track: 

Progress – Koeberg repairs on track

Progress – Transmission on track: 

Progress – Transmission on track

Progress – Energy Savings to date: 

Progress – Energy Savings to date

Update – Energy Savings Highlights: 

Update – Energy Savings Highlights Power Alerts to be flighted on SABC 1, 2 and 3 From 18h00 to 21h00 until 31st August Communicate status of energy demand and call people to reduce energy usage Broadcast educational infomercials on savings tips every 15 minutes Expect to achieve 150 MW demand reduction impact if only a conservative 20% of the residential consumers react

Update – Load Shedding to date: 

Update – Load Shedding to date Load Shedding is required during periods where energy demand exceeds supply capacity Load shedding has taken place on 11 April and 22 May Weekly schedules are published in the newspapers a week in advance

Overview of the ESKOM Winter 2006 Plan & Outlook for 2007: 

Overview of the ESKOM Winter 2006 Plan & Outlook for 2007


Winter 2006 Supply – Demand Balance

Resources Available: 

Resources Available (RTS excluded)

Emergency Resources: 

Emergency Resources

Classification of Capacity Adequacy for winter 2006: 

Classification of Capacity Adequacy for winter 2006

Risks & Mitigation - Generation: 

Risks & Mitigation - Generation

Key Conclusion: Generation Capacity: 

Key Conclusion: Generation Capacity We have enough available capacity but it very tight We have about 500MW additional emergency DMP and more is being sourced Key risks Impact of Koeberg on the national situation Technical problems on the running plants(loading and age) Higher demand than expected( weather and commodity prices) Shortage of Supply does not mean blackouts! One can predict shortfalls and schedule emergency resources and if that runs out have controlled load shedding managed by regional control centres. Sudden loss of generation due to faults are managed through the utilisation of operational reserves and automatic under-frequency load shedding schemes which prevents cascading outages. Load is then restored in a controlled fashion. We are focused at avoiding mandatory load shedding at a national level at all costs. However multiple technical problems can result in load shedding.


Transmission Corridors and Bulk Supply Points

Transmission Network Adequacy: 

Transmission Network Adequacy Transmission Corridors supplying a significant geographical area from the Mpumalanga Generation Pool were identified . The demand in these areas has been forecast and the capacity of these corridors assessed through power system studies. Classification is as follows: Green : The corridor can supply the peak demand even if a single credible contingency occurs (N-1). Orange : The corridor can supply the peak demand if no contingency occurs (N-0) and a contingency plan exists to re-configure the distribution network to supply the load. Interruption of supply could occur based on the nature of the contingency and the load will then be restored. Red : The corridor cannot supply the peak demand with the existing network and load shedding is required over the peak periods. Brown : The corridor cannot supply the demand at peak periods as well as at other times of the day and rotational load shedding is required throughout the day.



Firmness of Supply – Major Cities: 

Firmness of Supply – Major Cities

Risks & Mitigation - Transmission: 

Risks & Mitigation - Transmission

Key Conclusion: Transmission Grid: 

Key Conclusion: Transmission Grid The Cape corridor remains a risk until Koeberg units are back Risk at the other corridors are considered low Risks of double contingencies are always present


Distribution Network

Risks & Mitigation - Distribution: 

Risks & Mitigation - Distribution


2007 Outlook and beyond

Capacity outlook for 2007: 

Capacity outlook for 2007


Eskom – Progress Report on Annual Report Briefings in 2005


Skills development; HIV/AIDS programme; Succession - Executive and Board Rate of corruption and mitigation strategies; Capital expansion programme. Content


Eskom focus areas Supplier development programme Maximise local content in new capacity procurement Maximise local skills development and employment for new capacity development Increase learnership programme to support 4 000 learnerships Alignment of corporate social responsibility (CSR) programmes Outsourcing of non-core activities Disposal of non-core activities Operational procurement from BEE, SME and BWO suppliers Ramp up of the electrification programme to 300 000 connections per annum ASGI-SA Supporting ASGI-SA directly contributes towards the attainment of Eskom business goals and realising our vision


Skills - Eskom Resourcing Strategy Resourcing Strategy BUY (Recruitment) Recruitment partnering Delivers 3 candidates RENT (Contracts) EXTERNAL PIPELINE Retention BUILD (Develop within) Assign to International projects Artisan strategy with OEMs National Int.National HEADHUNTING National Partner with recruitment agency Int. National : London/Australia/ USA/Canada/Asia/M East) INTERNAL RESOURCING Formal secondment Formal Redeployment Internal recruitment Eliminate duplication OUTSOURCE Building alliances Short-Term 0-6 months Medium-Term6-12 months Long-Term 18+ months S. Africans Africans Foreigners S. Africans Africans Foreigners Learnerships Universities bursars Artisans Grootvlei model Enabling contracts 7 B’s Approach – 1. Boost; 2.Buy; 3.Birth; 4.Build; 5.Borrow; 6.Bridge; 7.Bind


A total of 2327 bursars, apprentices and learnerships 87% black and 55% female 516 university bursars 66 % engineering 339 technikon bursars 587 learnerships Eskom expenditure on skills development R539m in 2005/6 R635m in 2004/5 R518m in 2004 Skills pipeline


Managing the impact of HIV and AIDS Promotes voluntary counselling and testing, free HIV testing, confidential, results not revealed, access to treatment and support where required Beyond awareness, Equipping employees with knowledge including human rights issues, legal issues and care for the HIV and AIDS positive people, emphasis on destigmatisation, Managers Toolkit Psychological support, Medical Aid cover (ART), treatment for STI’s, TB treatment monitoring, Free condoms, Nutritional Supplementation, Wellness programmes, Peer Support Group (Employees Living With HIV and AIDS) Promote social cohesion and minimise impact on the business Reviewed all policies that may be impacted by HIV and AIDS to ensure non-discrimination at all business processes Objective is to establish infra-structure for tracking trends within the organisation, and for projecting the impact of HIV and AIDS: Information is: Comprehensive, Coordinated, Sustainable, Consistent, Easily Accessed, Multiplatform, cannot be avoided SAAVI, SABCOHA, Population Council (Horizons), GBC, FPD (Doctor Training on HIV/AIDS Management), Power Belt Project, Mpumalanga Highveld Project, + + +. Self Awareness Education & Training Care & Support High Risk Areas Policies & Practices Management Information Communication Strategy Partnerships Whatever it Takes Partnerships for Action ESDEF has expended R678,771 in nine provinces on HIV and AIDS Projects Partnerships


Board - Appointment and succession of Board members are managed through the company’s Articles of Association Executive – Eskom has implemented a targeted process that identifies possible replacements for key positions, and provides strategies for developing and/or acquiring individuals to meet future organisational needs (Succession Planning). This is done by the identification of a pool of high potential candidates, developing leadership competencies in those candidates through intentional learning experiences, and the selection of leaders from among that pool (Pipeline Management). This includes the creation of a match between the organisation’s future needs and the aspirations of individuals. Succession This is monitored and evaluated regularly and reviewed on at least an annual basis Succession Planning Pipeline Management


Rate of Corruption These statistics are based on reported cases for the relevant periods; Fraud still remains high, when compared to corruption and theft; The trend of reported cases indicates an increase in alleged irregularities from 2004 to 2005 relating to commercial and financial processes and control issues.


Crime Trends Rate of Corruption


Mitigation Strategies Eskom’s approach integrated, holistic and multidisciplinary; Various disciplines and programmes in place within governance structures; Prevention initiatives are inculcated by an integrated approach to risk management; Eskom’s Audit, Risk Management (Ethics), Security Risk Management (Forensic Investigations) and Legal functions within the corporate office are jointly responsible for setting policy and driving assurance and governance in Eskom; Established processes and policies support the above


Whistleblowing mechanisms; Investigation Function; Ethics Management Programmes; Integration of Governance Functions; Due Diligence Exercises; Established Crime Prevention Plan ( in terms of King 2); Periodic reporting to Governance Commitees on crime trends, risks and countermeasures; Fraud detection initiatives; Regular audits in identified risk areas; Compliance to legislation and corrective measures arising from investigations. Mitigation Strategies


Capital Expansion Programme


Camden - Unit 6 and 7 are in commercial operation. Unit 8 commissioning. Grootvlei – Progressing as planned. Komati – Progressing ahead of plan Project Alpha – Procurement phase launched Project Hotel and Majuba Coal transport System – awaiting PFMA approval Arnot Upgrade – on track OCGT – Progressing as planned Transmission Projects – Progressing as planned. We are experiencing delays in RODs. Capital Expansion Programme For year end March 2006, Eskom capital expenditure R10 074.0M against a budget of R9 489.7M. The over expenditure due to project acceleration and work scope change

Thank You & Questions?: 

Thank You & Questions?

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