2001 10 31 CA FLEET PRESS

Uploaded from authorPOINTLite
Views:
 
Category: Education
     
 

Presentation Description

No description available.

Comments

Presentation Transcript

California Transportation Fuel Demand and Production Outlook & Issues: 

California Transportation Fuel Demand and Production Outlook & Issues Pat Perez, Manager (pperez@energy.state.ca.us) Transportation Fuel Supply & Demand Office CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 6th California State Fleet Management Conference October 31, 2001 Double Tree Hotel - Sacramento

Presentation Topics: 

Presentation Topics Consumption of Transportation Fuels Production of Transportation Fuels Major Challenges Facing the Market State Policies and Programs

Use of Petroleum Fuels Continues to Grow: 

Use of Petroleum Fuels Continues to Grow

Usage Influenced by: 

Usage Influenced by Population growth Consumer taste Commuting patterns-- the location of residences and work

Usage Influenced by: 

Usage Influenced by Technological change Regulations The economy Price of fuel

Consumption of Gasoline Is Expected to Increase: 

Consumption of Gasoline Is Expected to Increase Increase in Vehicle Fuel Efficiency has leveled off Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) will directly result in higher consumption

Vehicle Fuel Efficiency: 

Vehicle Fuel Efficiency

Vehicle Miles Traveled : 

Vehicle Miles Traveled

Statewide Gasoline Fuel Demand: 

Statewide Gasoline Fuel Demand CEC Staff forecast 22% increase in consumption between 2000 and 2010 Growth from over 14 billion in 2001 to over 17 billion gallons annually An increase of over 3 billion gallons

Forecast of Gasoline: 

Forecast of Gasoline

Forecast of Demand for Diesel is Similar to Gasoline : 

Forecast of Demand for Diesel is Similar to Gasoline

California Refinery Capacity is Located in Both the North and South: 

California Refinery Capacity is Located in Both the North and South

Currently: 

Currently Refineries have little spare capacity Refineries report no large scale expansion plans

California Refinery Capacity Has Increased through:: 

California Refinery Capacity Has Increased through: Higher Capacity Utilization “De-bottlenecking” Existing processes

Growth in Supply Expected to Come From: 

Growth in Supply Expected to Come From A somewhat slowing, but continuing de-bottlenecking” of existing processes Growth in imports of finished products and blending components

Major Challenges Facing The California Transportation Fuel Market: 

Major Challenges Facing The California Transportation Fuel Market International Events and World Economy Uncertainty surrounding the phase-out of MTBE and introduction of ethanol Changing fuel specifications including Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel

World Events and World Economy: 

World Events and World Economy Supply and Price of Oil will continue to react to International Events A world-wide recovery or continued recession will directly impact the California transportation fuel market through the price of oil, impacts on the local economy, and price of gasoline

Gasoline Price Volatility: 

Gasoline Price Volatility

Uncertainty Surrounding the Phase-out of MTBE and Use of Ethanol in Gasoline: 

Uncertainty Surrounding the Phase-out of MTBE and Use of Ethanol in Gasoline Cost Impacts Supply Concerns Ethanol Logistics

California Ethanol Demand: 

California Ethanol Demand

State Policies, Programs and Activities: 

State Policies, Programs and Activities Reports (recent) Costs and Benefits of Biomass-to-Ethanol Industry Full Fuel Cycle Efficiency Study MTBE Phase-out Quarterly Report USA Ethanol Survey

State Policies, Programs and Activities: 

State Policies, Programs and Activities Reports (forthcoming) Joint CEC-ARB Study: Strategies to Reduce Petroleum Dependency (AB 2076) Strategic Fuel Reserve Feasibility Study (AB 2076) Gulf-Coast to California Pipeline Feasibility Study (AB 2098)

State Policies, Programs and Activities: 

State Policies, Programs and Activities Transportation Technology Programs Green Star Vehicle Program (Up to $3,000 per vehicle) Alternative Fuel Vehicle Infrastructure ($2.5 million) Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program (Up to $750 with another $750 in matching dealer incentives)

Conclusions: 

Conclusions Consumption will grow more than our ability to produce petroleum products in-state Imports of petroleum products and gasoline blending components will rise Opportunities for alternative fuels will grow