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Premium member Presentation Transcript California Transportation Fuel Demand and Production Outlook & Issues: California Transportation Fuel Demand and Production Outlook & Issues Pat Perez, Manager (pperez@energy.state.ca.us) Transportation Fuel Supply & Demand Office CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 6th California State Fleet Management Conference October 31, 2001 Double Tree Hotel - SacramentoPresentation Topics: Presentation Topics Consumption of Transportation Fuels Production of Transportation Fuels Major Challenges Facing the Market State Policies and ProgramsUse of Petroleum Fuels Continues to Grow: Use of Petroleum Fuels Continues to GrowUsage Influenced by: Usage Influenced by Population growth Consumer taste Commuting patterns-- the location of residences and work Usage Influenced by: Usage Influenced by Technological change Regulations The economy Price of fuel Consumption of Gasoline Is Expected to Increase: Consumption of Gasoline Is Expected to Increase Increase in Vehicle Fuel Efficiency has leveled off Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) will directly result in higher consumptionVehicle Fuel Efficiency: Vehicle Fuel EfficiencyVehicle Miles Traveled : Vehicle Miles Traveled Statewide Gasoline Fuel Demand: Statewide Gasoline Fuel Demand CEC Staff forecast 22% increase in consumption between 2000 and 2010 Growth from over 14 billion in 2001 to over 17 billion gallons annually An increase of over 3 billion gallonsForecast of Gasoline: Forecast of GasolineForecast of Demand for Diesel is Similar to Gasoline : Forecast of Demand for Diesel is Similar to Gasoline California Refinery Capacity is Located in Both the North and South: California Refinery Capacity is Located in Both the North and SouthCurrently: Currently Refineries have little spare capacity Refineries report no large scale expansion plansCalifornia Refinery Capacity Has Increased through:: California Refinery Capacity Has Increased through: Higher Capacity Utilization “De-bottlenecking” Existing processesGrowth in Supply Expected to Come From: Growth in Supply Expected to Come From A somewhat slowing, but continuing de-bottlenecking” of existing processes Growth in imports of finished products and blending componentsMajor Challenges Facing The California Transportation Fuel Market: Major Challenges Facing The California Transportation Fuel Market International Events and World Economy Uncertainty surrounding the phase-out of MTBE and introduction of ethanol Changing fuel specifications including Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel World Events and World Economy: World Events and World Economy Supply and Price of Oil will continue to react to International Events A world-wide recovery or continued recession will directly impact the California transportation fuel market through the price of oil, impacts on the local economy, and price of gasolineGasoline Price Volatility: Gasoline Price VolatilityUncertainty Surrounding the Phase-out of MTBE and Use of Ethanol in Gasoline: Uncertainty Surrounding the Phase-out of MTBE and Use of Ethanol in Gasoline Cost Impacts Supply Concerns Ethanol LogisticsCalifornia Ethanol Demand: California Ethanol DemandState Policies, Programs and Activities: State Policies, Programs and Activities Reports (recent) Costs and Benefits of Biomass-to-Ethanol Industry Full Fuel Cycle Efficiency Study MTBE Phase-out Quarterly Report USA Ethanol SurveyState Policies, Programs and Activities: State Policies, Programs and Activities Reports (forthcoming) Joint CEC-ARB Study: Strategies to Reduce Petroleum Dependency (AB 2076) Strategic Fuel Reserve Feasibility Study (AB 2076) Gulf-Coast to California Pipeline Feasibility Study (AB 2098) State Policies, Programs and Activities: State Policies, Programs and Activities Transportation Technology Programs Green Star Vehicle Program (Up to $3,000 per vehicle) Alternative Fuel Vehicle Infrastructure ($2.5 million) Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program (Up to $750 with another $750 in matching dealer incentives)Conclusions: Conclusions Consumption will grow more than our ability to produce petroleum products in-state Imports of petroleum products and gasoline blending components will rise Opportunities for alternative fuels will grow You do not have the permission to view this presentation. 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2001 10 31 CA FLEET PRESS Heather Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 26 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: April 13, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript California Transportation Fuel Demand and Production Outlook & Issues: California Transportation Fuel Demand and Production Outlook & Issues Pat Perez, Manager (pperez@energy.state.ca.us) Transportation Fuel Supply & Demand Office CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION 6th California State Fleet Management Conference October 31, 2001 Double Tree Hotel - SacramentoPresentation Topics: Presentation Topics Consumption of Transportation Fuels Production of Transportation Fuels Major Challenges Facing the Market State Policies and ProgramsUse of Petroleum Fuels Continues to Grow: Use of Petroleum Fuels Continues to GrowUsage Influenced by: Usage Influenced by Population growth Consumer taste Commuting patterns-- the location of residences and work Usage Influenced by: Usage Influenced by Technological change Regulations The economy Price of fuel Consumption of Gasoline Is Expected to Increase: Consumption of Gasoline Is Expected to Increase Increase in Vehicle Fuel Efficiency has leveled off Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) will directly result in higher consumptionVehicle Fuel Efficiency: Vehicle Fuel EfficiencyVehicle Miles Traveled : Vehicle Miles Traveled Statewide Gasoline Fuel Demand: Statewide Gasoline Fuel Demand CEC Staff forecast 22% increase in consumption between 2000 and 2010 Growth from over 14 billion in 2001 to over 17 billion gallons annually An increase of over 3 billion gallonsForecast of Gasoline: Forecast of GasolineForecast of Demand for Diesel is Similar to Gasoline : Forecast of Demand for Diesel is Similar to Gasoline California Refinery Capacity is Located in Both the North and South: California Refinery Capacity is Located in Both the North and SouthCurrently: Currently Refineries have little spare capacity Refineries report no large scale expansion plansCalifornia Refinery Capacity Has Increased through:: California Refinery Capacity Has Increased through: Higher Capacity Utilization “De-bottlenecking” Existing processesGrowth in Supply Expected to Come From: Growth in Supply Expected to Come From A somewhat slowing, but continuing de-bottlenecking” of existing processes Growth in imports of finished products and blending componentsMajor Challenges Facing The California Transportation Fuel Market: Major Challenges Facing The California Transportation Fuel Market International Events and World Economy Uncertainty surrounding the phase-out of MTBE and introduction of ethanol Changing fuel specifications including Ultra-low Sulfur Diesel World Events and World Economy: World Events and World Economy Supply and Price of Oil will continue to react to International Events A world-wide recovery or continued recession will directly impact the California transportation fuel market through the price of oil, impacts on the local economy, and price of gasolineGasoline Price Volatility: Gasoline Price VolatilityUncertainty Surrounding the Phase-out of MTBE and Use of Ethanol in Gasoline: Uncertainty Surrounding the Phase-out of MTBE and Use of Ethanol in Gasoline Cost Impacts Supply Concerns Ethanol LogisticsCalifornia Ethanol Demand: California Ethanol DemandState Policies, Programs and Activities: State Policies, Programs and Activities Reports (recent) Costs and Benefits of Biomass-to-Ethanol Industry Full Fuel Cycle Efficiency Study MTBE Phase-out Quarterly Report USA Ethanol SurveyState Policies, Programs and Activities: State Policies, Programs and Activities Reports (forthcoming) Joint CEC-ARB Study: Strategies to Reduce Petroleum Dependency (AB 2076) Strategic Fuel Reserve Feasibility Study (AB 2076) Gulf-Coast to California Pipeline Feasibility Study (AB 2098) State Policies, Programs and Activities: State Policies, Programs and Activities Transportation Technology Programs Green Star Vehicle Program (Up to $3,000 per vehicle) Alternative Fuel Vehicle Infrastructure ($2.5 million) Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program (Up to $750 with another $750 in matching dealer incentives)Conclusions: Conclusions Consumption will grow more than our ability to produce petroleum products in-state Imports of petroleum products and gasoline blending components will rise Opportunities for alternative fuels will grow