04 Modeling of Problem Solving Part2

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Learning Agents Laboratory Department of Computer Science George Mason University Gheorghe Tecuci tecuci@gmu.edu http://lalab.gmu.edu/ CS 785, Fall 2001 (Part 2 of 2)

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Critiquing through task reduction Critiquing as an expertise task The Course of Action critiquing agent Modeling the critiquing process Demonstration of the Disciple-COA agent The Course of Action critiquing challenge problem

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Critiquing as an expertise task Critiquing means expressing judgments about something according to certain standards. Example: Identifying the strengths and weaknesses of a military course of action with respect to the principles of war and the tenets of army operations. For instance, assess a particular course of action with respect to the Principle of Surprise.

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Identifies strengths and weaknesses in a military course of action based on the principles of war and tenets of army operations. Supports ground combat planning by the commander and staff: - identifies key combat tasks assigned to units; - analyzes ability of units to accomplish their tasks; - evaluates contributions of these tasks to the accomplishment of the mission. Course of Action critiquing: HPKB challenge problem

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Source: Challenge problem for the DARPA’s High Performance Knowledge Base (HPKB) program (FY97-99). Background: A military course of action (COA) is a preliminary outline of a plan for how a military unit might attempt to accomplish a mission. After receiving orders to plan for a mission, a commander and staff analyze the mission, conceive and evaluate potential COAs, select a COA, and prepare a detailed plans to accomplish the mission based on the selected COA. The general practice is for the staff to generate several COAs for a mission, and then to make a comparison of those COAs based on many factors including the situation, the commander’s guidance, the principles of war, and the tenets of army operations. The commander makes the final decision on which COA will be used to generate his or her plan based on the recommendations of the staff and his or her own experience with the same factors considered by the staff. Agent task: Identify strengths and weaknesses in a COA, based on the principles of war and the tenets of army operations. The Course of Action critiquing agent

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COA411 – the sketch Graphical depiction of a preliminary plan. It includes enough of the high level structure and maneuver aspects of the plan to show how the actions of each unit fit together to accomplish the overall purpose.

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COA411 – the statement Explains what the units will do to accomplish the assigned mission.

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COA411 – the statement (cont.)

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COA critiquing task Answer each of the following questions:

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Mass the effects of overwhelming combat power at the decisive place and time. Synchronizing all the elements of combat power where they will have decisive effect on an enemy force in a short period of time is to achieve mass. To mass is to hit the enemy with a closed fist, not poke at him with fingers of an open hand. Mass must also be sustained so the effects have staying power. Thus, mass seeks to smash the enemy, not sting him. This results from the proper combination of combat power with the proper application of other principles of war. Massing effects, rather than concentrating forces, can enable numerically inferior forces to achieve decisive results, while limiting exposure to enemy fire. The Principle of Mass (from FM100-5)

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To what extent does this course of action conform to the Principle of Mass? There is a major strength in COA411 with respect to mass because BLUE-TASK-FORCE1 is the MAIN-EFFORT1 and it acts on the decisive point of the COA (RED-MECH-COMPANY4) with a force ratio of 10.6, which exceeds a recommended force ratio of 3.0. Additionally, the main effort is assisted by supporting action SUPPRESS-MILITARY-TASK1 which also acts on the decisive point. This is good evidence of the allocation of significantly more than minimum combat power required at the decisive point and is indicative of the proper application of the principle of mass. There is a strength in COA411 with respect to mass because BLUE-TASK-FORCE1 is the main effort of the COA and it has been allocated 33% of available combat power but this is considered just a medium level weighting of the main effort. There is a strength in COA411 with respect to mass because BLUE-MECH-COMPANY8 is a COMPANY-UNIT-DESIGNATION level maneuver unit assigned to be the reserve. This is considered a strong reserve for a BRIGADE-UNIT-DESIGNATION level COA and would be available to continue the operation or exploit success. Reference: FM 100-5 pg 2-4, KF 113.1, KF 113.2, KF 113.3, KF 113.4, KF 113.5 - To mass is to synchronize the effects of all elements of combat power at the proper point and time to achieve decisive results. Observance of the Principle of Mass may be evidenced by allocation to the main effort of significantly greater combat power than the minimum required throughout its mission, accounting for expected losses. Mass is evidenced by the allocation of significantly more than minimum combat power required at the decisive point. Sample critiques generated by the COA agent

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Strike the enemy at a time or place or in a manner for which he is unprepared. Surprise can decisively shift the balance of combat power. By seeking surprise, forces can achieve success well out of proportion to the effort expended. Rapid advances in surveillance technology and mass communication make it increasingly difficult to mask or cloak large-scale marshaling or movement of personnel and equipment. The enemy need not be taken completely by surprise but only become aware too late to react effectively. Factors contributing to surprise include speed, effective intelligence, deception, application of unexpected combat power, operations security (OPSEC), and variations in tactics and methods of operation. Surprise can be in tempo, size of force, direction or location of main effort, and timing. Deception can aid the probability of achieving surprise. The Principle of Surprise (from FM100-5)

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To what extent does this course of action conform to the Principle of Surprise? "There is a strength with respect to surprise in COA411 because the enemy is unlikely to be prepared for the heavy concentration of combat power applied by BLUE-TASK-FORCE1 as MAIN-EFFORT1 in action PENETRATE1. In this action, MAIN-EFFORT1 is applying a force ratio of 10.6 which is more than double the recommended force ratio 3.0. Applying this much combat power for this action is likely to surprise the enemy and is indicative of the proper application of the principle of surprise." Reference: FM 100-5 pg 2-5, KF 118.1, KF 118.2, KF 118.3 - Surprise is achieved by striking/engaging the enemy in a time, place or manner for which he is unprepared. The enemy can be surprised by the tempo of the operation, the size of the force, the direction or location of the main effort, and timing. Factors contributing to surprise include speed, effective intelligence, deception, application of unexpected combat power, operations security, and variations in tactics and methods of operation. Sample critique generated by the COA agent

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Modeling the critiquing process Modeling the critiquing process: overview Modeling the process of critiquing military courses of action with respect to the Principle of Surprise Modeling the process of critiquing military courses of action with respect to the Principle of Offensive

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S11 Modeling the critiquing process: overview To assess a course of action with respect to a specific principle or tenet one needs a certain amount of information about that course of action, information related to that principle or tenet. This information is obtained by asking a series of questions. The answer to each question allows one to reduce the current assessment task to a more specific and simpler one. This process continues until one has enough information to recognize a weakness or a strength. S1 S1n S11a1 S11am T1n T11a … … T1 Q1 A1n A11 … A11a1 A11am Q11a Each leaf is a solution (a weakness or a strength). The solution corresponding to a node is the union of the solutions of its immediate children

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Strike the enemy at a time or place or in a manner for which he is unprepared. Surprise can decisively shift the balance of combat power. By seeking surprise, forces can achieve success well out of proportion to the effort expended. Rapid advances in surveillance technology and mass communication make it increasingly difficult to mask or cloak large-scale marshaling or movement of personnel and equipment. The enemy need not be taken completely by surprise but only become aware too late to react effectively. Factors contributing to surprise include speed, effective intelligence, deception, application of unexpected combat power, operations security (OPSEC), and variations in tactics and methods of operation. Surprise can be in tempo, size of force, direction or location of main effort, and timing. Deception can aid the probability of achieving surprise. The Principle of Surprise (from FM100-5)

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I consider the presence of surprise factors I consider enemy reconnaissance I consider the application of surprising levels of combat power Assess surprise wrt surprise factors for-coa coa411 Assess surprise wrt deception actions for-coa coa411 Assess surprise wrt force ratio for-coa coa411 Assess surprise wrt countering enemy reconnaissance for-coa coa411 Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa411 Does the COA assign appropriate surprise, deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions? coa411-surprise I consider the presence of deception actions

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Report weakness in surprise because there are no surprise actions assigned for-coa coa411 for-nbr-actions 0 with-importance high Assess surprise wrt surprise actions for-coa coa411 Yes, ... I consider the presence of surprise actions Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa411 Does the COA assign appropriate surprise, deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions? No, the COA does not have any surprise action Does the COA include surprise actions? coa411-surprise

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Report strength in surprise because of using overwhelming combat power for-coa coa411 for-unit blue-task-force1 for-effort main-effort1 for-action penetrate1 for-force-ratio 10.6 for-surprise-force-ratio 6.0 with-importance "high" Assess surprise wrt force ratio for-coa coa411 Do the main or supporting efforts use a surprising amount of combat power ? Main effort is applying a force ratio of 10.6 for penetrate1 which is more than twice the recommended force ratio. Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa411 Does the COA assign appropriate surprise, deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions? I consider the application of surprising levels of combat power NO.... coa411-surprise

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Report weakness in surprise because there are no deception actions assigned for-coa coa411 for-nbr-actions 0 with-importance medium Assess surprise wrt deception actions for-coa coa411 Are deception actions assigned in the COA? No, there are no deception actions Yes, ... I consider the presence of deception actions Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa411 Does the COA assign appropriate surprise, deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions? coa411-surprise

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Assess surprise wrt countering enemy reconnaissance for-coa coa411 Assess surprise when enemy recon is present for-coa coa411 for-unit red-csop1 for-recon-action screen1 Yes, RED-CSOP1 which is performing the reconnaissance action SCREEN1 No, ... Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa411 Does the COA assign appropriate surprise, deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions? Is an enemy reconnaissance unit present? Is the enemy reconnaissance unit destroyed? Yes, RED-CSOP1 is destroyed by DESTROY1 Report strength in surprise because of countering of enemy recon for-coa coa411 for-unit red-csop1 for-recon-action screen1 for-action destroy1 with-importance high No, ... I consider enemy reconnaissance coa411-surprise

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Modeling based on COA421

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Assess surprise wrt countering enemy reconnaissance for-coa coa421 Assess surprise when enemy recon is present for-coa coa421 for-unit red-csop1 for-recon-action screen1 Yes, RED-CSOP1 which is performing the reconnaissance action SCREEN1 No, ... Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa421 Does the COA assign appropriate surprise, deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions? Is an enemy reconnaissance unit present? Is the enemy reconnaissance unit destroyed? No, RED-CSOP1 is not destroyed Report weakness in surprise because enemy recon is not countered for-coa coa421 for-unit red-csop1 for-recon-action screen1 with-importance high Yes …. I consider enemy reconnaissance coa421-surprise

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Modeling based on COA51

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COA 5.1

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Assess surprise wrt deception actions for-coa coa51 Are deception actions assigned in the COA? No, there are no deception actions Report strength in surprise because there are deception actions assigned for-coa coa51 for-nbr-actions 1 with-importance medium Yes, there is 1 deception action I consider the presence of deception actions Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa51 Does the COA assign appropriate surprise, deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions? coa51-surprise

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I consider the presence of surprise factors Report weakness in surprise because no surprise timing for-coa coa51 for-nbr-actions 1 with-importance high Assess surprise wrt the presence of surprise factors for-coa coa51 I am considering the presence of surprise actions Is there surprise timing or surprise actions present in the COA? I am considering surprise timing of operations Is there surprise timing for this operation? Assess surprise wrt surprise timing for-coa coa51 No Yes, …. Assess COA wrt Principle of Surprise for-coa coa51 Does the COA assign appropriate surprise, deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions? coa51-surprise

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Seize, retain, and exploit the initiative. Offensive action is the most effective and decisive way to attain a clearly defined common objective. Offensive operations are the means by which a military force seizes and holds the initiative while maintaining freedom of action and achieving decisive results. This is fundamentally true across all levels of war. Commanders adopt the defensive only as a temporary expedient and must seek every opportunity to seize the initiative. An offensive spirit must therefore be inherent in the conduct of all defensive operations. The side that retains the initiative through offensive action forces the enemy to react rather than act. The Principle of Offensive (from FM100-5)

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I consider the number of offensive actions I consider the presence of special offensive actions such as penetrations I consider the presence of independent actions I consider the presence of follow on forces Assess offensive wrt the number of offensive actions for-coa coa411 Assess offensive wrt the presence of special offensive actions for-coa coa411 Assess offensive wrt the presence of follow on forces for-coa coa411 Assess offensive wrt the presence of independent actions for-coa coa411 I consider the presence of end statements Assess offensive wrt the presence of end statements for-coa coa411 Assess offensive wrt the presence of sequential actions for-coa coa411 I consider the presence of sequential actions Assess COA with respect to Principle of Offensive for-coa coa411 Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive - gaining, retaining and exploiting the initiative? coa411-offensive

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Report strength in offensive because both the main and the supporting efforts have offensive actions for-coa coa411 for-nbr-offensive-actions 6 for-nbr-main-effort-offensive-actions 1 for-nbr-supporting-efforts-offensive-actions 4 with-importance ... Yes, the COA has 6 offensive actions I consider the number of offensive actions Assess COA with respect to Principle of Offensive for-coa coa411 Assess offensive wrt the number of offensive actions for-coa coa411 Does the COA include offensive actions? No, ... Assess offensive when there are offensive actions for-coa coa411 for-nbr-offensive-actions 6 Assess offensive when main effort has offensive actions for-coa coa411 for-nbr-offensive-actions 6 for-nbr-main-effort-offensive-actions 1 Is the main effort assigned offensive actions? Yes, the main effort is assigned 1 offensive action No, ... Are the supporting efforts assigned offensive actions? Yes, the supporting efforts are assigned 4 offensive actions No, ... Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive - gaining, retaining and exploiting the initiative? coa411-offensive 2

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Report strength in offensive because of presence of penetration for-coa coa411 with-importance ... Assess offensive wrt the presence of special offensive actions for-coa coa411 Assess offensive wrt the presence of penetrations for-coa coa411 I consider the presence of penetrations Does the COA include special offensive actions, such as penetrations? Does the COA include a penetration? Yes, the COA includes penetrate1, which is a penetration coa411-offensive Assess COA with respect to Principle of Offensive for-coa coa411 Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive - gaining, retaining and exploiting the initiative? I consider the presence of special offensive actions such as penetrations

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I consider the presence of follow on forces Assess offensive wrt the presence of follow on forces for-coa coa421 Assess COA with respect to Principle of Offensive for-coa coa421 Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive - gaining, retaining and exploiting the initiative? coa421-offensive Report strength in offensive because there are maneuver forces to follow and support main effort for-coa coa421 for-unit blue-mech-battalion1 for-task follow-and-support1 with-importance ... Are follow on forces available to retain and exploit the initiative ? Yes, blue-mech-battalion1 follows and supports the main effort

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I consider the presence of follow on forces Assess offensive wrt the presence of follow on forces for-coa coa421 Assess COA with respect to Principle of Offensive for-coa coa421 Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive - gaining, retaining and exploiting the initiative? coa421-offensive Report strength in offensive because there are maneuver forces to follow and support main effort for-coa coa421 for-unit blue-mech-battalion1 for-task follow-and-support1 with-importance ... Are follow on forces available to retain and exploit the initiative ? Yes, blue-mech-battalion1 follows and supports the main effort

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I consider the presence of end statements Assess offensive wrt the presence of end statements for-coa coa421 Report weakness in offensive because there are no end statements for-coa coa421 with-importance ... Does the COA include an end state statement to provide units guidance on where and when they can take initiative? No coa421-offensive Assess COA with respect to Principle of Offensive for-coa coa421 Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive - gaining, retaining and exploiting the initiative?

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Report weakness in offensive because no offensive actions for-coa coa51 for-nbr-offensive-actions 0 with-importance ... Yes, ... I consider the number of offensive actions Assess COA with respect to Principle of Offensive for-coa coa51 Assess offensive wrt the number of offensive actions for-coa coa51 Does the COA include offensive actions? Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive - gaining, retaining and exploiting the initiative? coa51-offensive No

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Report weakness in offensive because no offensive actions for-coa coa51 for-nbr-offensive-actions 0 with-importance ... Yes, ... I consider the number of offensive actions Assess COA with respect to Principle of Offensive for-coa coa51 Assess offensive wrt the number of offensive actions for-coa coa51 Does the COA include offensive actions? Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive - gaining, retaining and exploiting the initiative? coa51-offensive No

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I consider the presence of independent actions Report strength in offensive because of presence of independent actions for-coa coa51 for-nbr-actions 2 with-importance ... Assess offensive wrt the presence of independent actions for-coa coa51 Yes, the COA has 2 independent action Does the COA include independent actions? Assess COA with respect to Principle of Offensive for-coa coa51 Does the COA exhibit the key aspects of offensive - gaining, retaining and exploiting the initiative? coa51-offensive

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Demonstration of the Disciple-COA agent Disciple COA Demo

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Identification through task reduction Identification as an expertise task The Center of Gravity identification agent Modeling the identification process Demonstration of the Disciple-CoG agent The Center of Gravity concept

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Identification as an expertise task Identification means recognizing an entity as being a certain thing. Example: Identification of the strategic center of gravity candidates in military conflicts.

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The center of gravity of an entity (state, alliance, coalition, or group) is the foundation of capability, the hub of all power and movement, upon which everything depends, the point against which all the energies should be directed. Carl Von Clausewitz, “On War,” 1832. If a combatant eliminates or influences the enemy’s strategic center of gravity, then the enemy will lose control of its power and resources and will eventually fall to defeat. If the combatant fails to adequately protect his own strategic center of gravity, he invites disaster. The Center of Gravity (CoG) concept

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Agent task Identify strategic Center of Gravity (CoG) candidates for a military scenario. Input A description of a military scenario, such as the World War II invasion of Sicily by the Anglo allies, in 1943. Output Strategic center of gravity candidates for each opposing force and its members (e.g. Anglo allies, US, Britain). The agent will also provide a detailed description of its lines of reasoning. The center of gravity identification agent

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The Sicily 1943 Scenario The Allied decision to invade Sicily following the successful operation in North Africa was a critical element of World War II (WWII). The commitment of such a large force to continue operations in the Mediterranean theater meant that the cross-channel invasion of Europe would be delayed. American military leaders strongly favored the cross-channel invasion at the earliest possible opportunity. This meant giving this invasion force first priority for troops, shipping and equipment. The British favored an indirect approach that would see a major effort continue in the Mediterranean. The Allies settled on the Mediterranean approach at the Casablanca conference in January 1943 and began planning for Operation Husky, the invasion of Sicily. Situated ninety miles off the north coast of Africa and two and one-half miles from the toe of the Italian peninsula, Sicily was both a natural bridge between Africa and Europe and a barrier dividing the Mediterranean Sea. It was an unsinkable air and naval fortress from which Axis forces interdicted Allied’ sea lines of communications through the Mediterranean. Operation Husky was the largest amphibious operation ever conducted up to that time. The operation encountered numerous difficulties and gained the Allies valuable experience that would be critical for the successful invasion of Europe. Operation Husky was the last U.S. and British combined operation of WWII in which roughly equal numbers of British and US ground forces would be committed. British ground forces would initially be the main effort of the operation but by its conclusion US ground forces would have the lead. After Sicily, US forces would constitute the largest element of Allied’ combat power for the remainder of the war. The German defense of Sicily is one of the finest examples of defensive warfare in modern history. The bulk of the Axis forces available for the campaign were Italian, but despite competent leadership and decision-making at the General Officer level, the Italian forces were mostly ineffective. Greatly outnumbered and out-gunned, the Germans effectively delayed the allied advance for weeks, allowing German units to reinforce Italy. The campaign ended with a brilliant evacuation of German forces and equipment from Sicily despite Allied air and naval superiority.

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Strategic COG candidates identified by the agent The will of the Anglo_allies_1943 is a strategic COG candidate for Anglo_allies_1943 which is an equal partner alliance The cooperation between the subgroups of Allied_forces_operations_Husky which conduct “combined and joint operations” is a strategic COG candidate for Anglo_allies_1943 President_Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate for US_1943 which is a representative democracy and a member of Anglo_allies_1943 The “will of the people” of US_1943 is a strategic COG candidate for US_1943 which is a representative democracy and a member of Anglo_allies_1943 Industrial_capacity_of_US_1943 is a strategic COG candidate for US_1943 which is a member of Anglo_allies_1943 Army_of_Germany_1943 is a strategic COG candidate for for Germany_1943 which is a member of European_Axis_1943 … Identify the strategic COG candidates for the Sicily_1943 scenario

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Modeling the identification process S11 To identify a center of gravity candidate for a given scenario (e.g. Sicily_1943) one needs a certain amount of information which is obtained by asking a series of questions. The answer to each question allows one to reduce the current identification task to a more specific and simpler one. This process continues until one has enough information about an entity in the scenario to identify it as a center of gravity candidate. S1 S1n S11a1 S11am T1n T11a … … T1 Q1 A1n A11 … A11a1 A11am Q11a Each leaf of the tree is a solution (a COG candidate). The solution corresponding to a node is the union of the solutions of its immediate children.

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Identify the strategic COG candidates for the Sicily_1943 scenario Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates for Anglo_allies_1943 1 European_Axis_1943 Which is an opposing force in the Sicily_1943 scenario? Is Anglo_allies_1943 a single member force or a multi-member force? Anglo_allies_1943 is a multi-member force Identify the strategic COG candidates for the Anglo_allies_1943 which is a multi-member force Sample modeling: the Sicily_1943 scenario continues on 2 I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I need to

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What type of strategic COG candidates should I consider for a multi-member force? Identify the strategic COG candidates corresponding to the multi-member nature of the force for the Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates corresponding to the members of the Anglo_allies_1943 I consider the candidates corresponding to the multi-member nature of the force I consider the candidates corresponding to the members of the multi-member force Identify the strategic COG candidates corresponding to other sources of strength and power of Anglo_allies_1943 I consider the candidates corresponding to other sources of strength and power of Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates for the Anglo_allies_1943 which is a multi-member force 1 Sample modeling (cont. from ) 2 continues on 3 continues on 11 continues on 6 Therefore I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I need to

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2 What type of strategic COG candidates should I consider for the multi_member nature of the force? I consider the relationships between the members of the force I consider the type of operations being conducted by the members of the force Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the relationships between the members of the Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the type of operations being conducted by the members of the Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates corresponding to the multi_member nature of the force for the Anglo_allies_1943 Sample modeling (cont. from ) 3 continues on 4 continues on 5 Therefore I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I need to

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The will of the Anglo_allies_1943 is a strategic COG candidate for Anglo_allies_1943, an equal partner alliance Is the Anglo_allies_1943 an equal partner or a dominant partner alliance or coalition? Anglo_allies_1943 is an equal partner alliance Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the relationships between the members of the Anglo_allies_1943 3 Sample modeling (cont. from ) 4 Therefore I need to Therefore I conclude that

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Which is the primary force element that will conduct the campaign for Anglo_allies_1943? Allied_forces_operations_Husky Is Allied_forces_operations_Husky made up of a true single group or are there subgroups? Allied_forces_operations_Husky is made up of several subgroups Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the type of operations being conducted by Allied_forces_operations_Husky, the primary force element of the Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the type of operations being conducted by Allied_forces_operations_Husky, a multi_group force which is the primary force element of the Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the type of operations being conducted by the members of the Anglo_allies_1943 The cooperation between the subgroups of Allied_forces_operations_Husky, which conduct combined and joint operations is a strategic COG candidate for Anglo_allies_1943 Combined and joint operations What types of operations are being conducted by the subgroups of Allied_forces_operations_Husky? 3 Sample modeling (cont. from ) 5 Therefore I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I conclude that

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Which is a member of the Anglo_allies_1943? US_1943 Britain_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates corresponding to the members of the Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates for Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 2 Sample modeling (cont. from ) 6 continues on 7 Therefore I need to Therefore I need to

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Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the controlling element of Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the governing element of Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates for Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 I consider strategic COG candidates with respect to the controlling element of Britain_1943 What type of strategic COG candidates should I consider for Britain_1943? I consider strategic COG candidates with respect to the civilization of Britain_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the civilization of Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 I consider strategic COG candidates with respect to other sources of strength and power of Britain_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to other sources of strength and power of Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 I consider strategic COG candidates with respect to the governing element of Britain_1943 6 Sample modeling (cont. from ) 7 continues on 8 continues on 9 continues on 10 Therefore I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I need to

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PM_Winston_Churchill is a strategic COG candidate for Britain_1943, a parliamentary democracy and a member of Anglo_allies_1943 Who or what is the primary controlling element of Britain_1943, setting its objectives and making the main decisions? PM_Winston_Churchill Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the controlling element of Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 7 Sample modeling (cont. from ) 8 Therefore I need to Therefore I conclude that

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The will of the people of Britain_1943 is a strategic COG candidate for Britain_1943, a parliamentary democracy and a member of Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the governing element of Britain_1943, a parliamentary democracy and a member of Anglo_allies_1943 Who or what is the dominant governing element of this parliamentary democracy? The will of the people Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the governing element of Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 What type of governing body controls Britain_1943? Britain_1943 is a parliamentary democracy 7 Sample modeling (cont. from ) 9 Therefore I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I conclude that

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Industrial_capacity_of_Britain_1943 is a strategic COG candidate for Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 At what level is the civilization of Britain_1943 organized? Britain_1943 is an industrial civilization Who or what is a strategically critical industrial civilization element in Britain_1943? Industrial_capacity_of_Britain_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the civilization of Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates with respect to the industrial civilization of Britain_1943, a member of Anglo_allies_1943 7 Sample modeling (cont. from ) 10 Therefore I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I conclude that

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Identify the strategic COG candidates corresponding to other sources of strength and power of Anglo_allies_1943 Strategic_mobility_of_Anglo_Allies_1943 is a strategic COG candidate for Anglo_allies_1943 Strategic_mobility_of_Anglo_Allies_1943 Which or what is a source of strength and power of Anglo_Allies_1943? 2 Sample modeling (cont. from ) 11 Therefore I need to Therefore I conclude that

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Demonstration of the Disciple-CoG agent Disciple CoG Demo

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Guidelines for the modeling process General guidelines Specific guidelines

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General guidelines Partition the domain into classes of problems. Select representative problems for each class. Model one class at a time. Model one example solution at a time. Organize the top level part of the problem solving tree to identify the class of the problem.

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Partition the domain into classes of problems Workaround damage Workaround damaged tunnels Workaround damaged bridges Workaround damaged roads Workaround damaged bridges with fording Workaround damaged bridges with fixed bridges Workaround damaged bridges with floating bridges Workaround damaged bridges with rafts Workaround Domain

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Partition the domain into classes of problems Each principle and tenet leads to a different class of critiquing task. COA Domain

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Partition the domain into classes of problems Type of scenario Major theater war Peace keeping Drug/law enforcement Counter insurgency Counter terrorism CoG Domain

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1. Identify the problem to be solved, then form a task name by writing a clear, thorough, natural language sentence describing that problem. 2. Follow each task or sub-task with a single, concise, question relevant to solving the named task. - Ask small, incremental questions that are likely to have a single category of answer (but not necessarily a single answer). This usually means ask “who”, or “what”, or “where”, or “what kind of”, or “is this or that” etc., not complex questions such as “who and what”, or “what and where”, 3. Follow each question with one or more answers to that question. - Express answers as complete sentences, restating key elements of the question in the answer. - Even well formed, simple questions are likely to generate multiple answers. Select the answer that corresponds to the example solution being modeled and continue down that branch. Go back and explore possible branches in a solution tree when you are ready to model a new example solution. Specific guidelines for the modeling process

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4. Evaluate the complexity of each question and its answers. When a question leads to apparently overly complex answers, especially answers that contain an “and” condition, rephrase the question in a simpler, more incremental manner leading to simpler answers. 5. For each answer, form a new sub-task, or several sub-tasks, or a solution corresponding to that answer, by writing a clear, thorough, natural language sentence describing the new sub-tasks or solution. - To the extent that it is practical, incorporate key relevant phrases and elements of preceding task names in sub-task names to portray the expert’s chain of problem solving thought and the accumulation of relevant knowledge. - If the answer has led to several sub-tasks, then model their solutions in a depth-first order. Specific guidelines for the modeling process (cont.)

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6. After completing a solution tree for an example solution, revisit the potential branches of that tree to model additional example solutions within that category of solutions, reusing existing model components to the greatest extent possible. Utilize the tools and learning ability of Disciple to the greatest extent possible to minimize the amount of modeling required. Only completely model solutions that are unique in their entirety. Entirely unique solutions will be rare. Specific guidelines for the modeling process (cont.)

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Illustration of the guidelines Identify the strategic COG candidates for the Sicily_1943 scenario Anglo_allies_1943 and European_Axis_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates for Anglo_allies_1943 Which are the opposing forces in the Sicily_1943 scenario? I need to Therefore I need to Identify the strategic COG candidates for the Sicily_1943 scenario Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates for Anglo_allies_1943 Which is an opposing force in the Sicily_1943 scenario? I need to Therefore I need to Identify the strategic COG candidates for European_Axis_1943 Rephrase this question in a simpler, more incremental manner, leading to simpler answers

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Illustration of the guidelines Disciple can develop the modeling for European_ Axis_1943 by following the model for Anglo_Allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates for the Sicily_1943 scenario Anglo_allies_1943 Identify the strategic COG candidates for Anglo_allies_1943 European_Axis_1943 Which is an opposing force in the Sicily_1943 scenario? Is Anglo_allies_1943 a single member force or a multi-member force? Anglo_allies_1943 is a multi-member force Identify the strategic COG candidates for the Anglo_allies_1943 which is a multi-member force … I need to Therefore I need to Therefore I need to

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Identify the strategic COG candidates for the Sicily_1943 scenario Anglo_allies_1943 A systematic approach to agent teaching European_Axis_1943 US_1943 Britain_1943 Italy_1943 Germany_1943 alliance alliance individual states individual states 1 2 3 5 6 other factors other factors 4 7 8

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